Monday, December 31, 2007

Jim Cramer - Happy New Year

I just finished reading through the latest SEC filings for Jim Cramer's company, The Street.com (TSCM). In the spirit of, Those that can, do, Those that can't, teach, take a look at these numbers:

Year-to-Date Cramer's Action Alert Plus portfolio, his real time, real money, can't cheat (much) portfolio is up about $250K on a $3MM base, about 8%; he passes these profits on to charity.

For the nine months ending September 30, 2007, TSCM's subscription revenues were in excess of $15MM! Annually, that comes to about $20MM in subscriptions and unlike the trading profits, none of that goes to charity.

Trading Gains = $250,000
Subscriptions = $20,000,000

Happy New Year.

A

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Interview Take-Away

After reading the Comments and a spate of private e-mails coming off of my appearance Traderinterviews I wanted to make one very important point, the single most important "take-away" from the interview.

To me, trading is a series of mostly successful trades that when added together, daily, weekly, monthly, annually, results in a six or seven figure income. A trading "system" that accomplishes this is what we are all after here. After four years of real time, real money trading, I am convinced that I have attained this result.

A guy like Cramer, who buys Google at 450 because he thinks its worth 650 based on earnings momentum, or sales, or chart patterns, or whatever, is just a gambler making a series of coin-tosses and hoping, albeit praying, he wins more often then he loses. This is not trading, this is not a trading system, this isn't even investing.

Let me illustrate what I mean. For the entire calendar year of 2007, Cramer's Action Alerts portfolio, his "charitable trust" as he calls it, is up 8.68%. This compares to an S&P 500 which is also up for the year, 4.26%.

On the other hand, consider a day-trading system that grabs 1% for every winning trade, trades five times a day and wins 4 out of 5 trades. If you do the math assuming no pyramiding and allocating the same amount for each trade, this trading system averages 0.6% per day, or about 12% per month which is 144% per year.

Throw in conservative pyramiding of profits and tighter stops then 1%, and that 144% a year is about a quarter of what is realistic.

Compare Cramer's real life, no-lying-cheating-nor-stealing returns to 144% a year, or four times 144% a year.

Cramer says, "Listen to me and lets get rich."

The Anti-Cramer says, "Find something that works and trade it."

A

We Are The World

Just got back from ten days on the East Coast and I have an air travel observation that ties into our stock picking ideas.

Going through airport security they ask you to put personal items from your pockets and place them in those grey bins. They also now ask everyone to remove their shoes and those too go into the grey bins.

Annoying, but harmless?

The men's restrooms at airports share many things in common. One of the grossest is the pool of urine that seems to build underneath each urinal. So standing there, walking to the sinks, leaving the restroom, a trail of urine contributed by an international cast of characters coheres to the bottoms of everyone's shoes. That stew of soles then makes its way to those grey bins that we are asked to place our cell phones, wallets, loose change and shoes.

By the time the bin is x-rayed and comes off the conveyor belt to our anxiously waiting hands, wedding bells have rung and a co-mingling of molecules has been consummated. Yes, we and our collective excrement are the world, literally, figuratively and now biologically as well.

This Blog has always been enamored with small cap biotechnology. There are several in the archives that sport triple digit gains since first mentioned. I know some have not done well, down 50% or more. But the even at 40 cents, NNVC is up 300% from where it was first mentioned here. It was up 3,650% six months later.

i.e. limited downside, unlimited upside

There are more with NNVC potential (NNVC still being one of them) out there. You will probably read about them here first. Meanwhile, remember the observation about those grey bins and think twice about what you place in them, or more importantly, what you pick up out of them

A

Thursday, December 27, 2007

The Anti-Cramer Interview

My interview is finally up at Traderinterviews.com. From the site's description:

Allan Harris came up with his current trading system while on a family road trip across the country. His nearly hands-off system looks at insider buying and capitalizes on moves the stock makes when the news of the transactions is released to the public. Originally a lawyer, he decided he'd had enough of the profession and decided to be a full-time trader. He blogs about his trading at: AllAllan.blogspot.com. A fascinating look into one successful trader's tactics.


As most of you know by now, Insider-Buys are only one small part of my trading, but as I explain in the interview, they are a good example of a causal connection that results in a tradable pop in the underlying security. A handful of tradable pops a day keeps the suits and ties in the closet while we make a living in the great casino that is Wall Street. Books? TV Shows? Charitable Trusts? Phony Bravado?

"We don't need no stinkin' badges."

A

Monday, December 24, 2007

The Anti-Cramer

On Thursday my interview with Traderinterviews.com will be posted. I'll update everyone with a link.

For a hint of how it went, click here.

A

PS: NTRZ $1.40 and I'm holding every single share I own.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

NTRZ update

NTRZ printed $1.22 today, up 60% from our entries in about one week.

You know by now that I don't usually deal with exits, or targets, or when and if trades should be held. But I will remind everyone that the target for NTRZ is 100% within one year. A new BI Research came out on Monday after the close and it's editor, Tom Bishop, made NTRZ his featured recommendation. Very unusual and very bullish for him to make his lead stock recommendation a reiteration of a former featured stock. I'm holding all my shares.

A

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Interview

I will be interviewed by this site on Thursday at 3:00PM PT. I suspect that the interview will appear sometime thereafter on the site, for review at your convenience. They said I needed a landline phone. What is that, something from the eighties?

A

Day after day, alone on the hill,
The man with the foolish grin is keeping perfectly still.
But nobody wants to know him,
They can see that he's just a fool.
And he never gives an answer .....

But the fool on the hill,
Sees the sun going down.
And the eyes in his head,
See the world spinning around.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

NTRZ: Up 30% in 24 hours

I found these public domain comments from Tom Bishop, editor of BI Research. But with a 30% win in less then 24 hours, maybe some of you should consider sending him $95 for a one year subscription:



“Rice is the most consumed grain on the planet; it is a primary food source for 70% of the world’s population,” says small cap growth stock expert Tom Bishop. “Yet 65% of its nutritional value is in the bran covering that is routinely stripped off.

For those comfortable with the high risks inherent in a small cap speculation, the editor of BI Research reviews Nutrecea (NASDAQ: NTRZ), which offers a patent technology that preserves these nutrients.

“NutraCea had developed a patent protected technology that stabilizes rice bran into an FDA certified edible product, leaving the nutritional value of the bran intact and with a shelf life of 1 to 3 years.

“There is tremendous interest in this highly nutritional product, especially from humanitarian relief organizations, the nutraceutical industry and both human and animal food companies. NutraCea’s technology stabilizes the rice bran

“Over 150 projects are currently ongoing around the world, many in advanced stages, to utilize SRB in such products. The current customer roster has 187 customers, including the likes of General Mills, Pepperidge Farms, Con Agra, Archer Daniels Midland and Purina.

“To cut to the chase, NutraCea is facing demand that is expected to exceed its ability to supply it for years to come. It is currently crossing the threshold of profitability and expanding like crazy as it rides a wave of awareness regarding the value of stabilized rice bran for humanitarian aid and as an additive to breads, cereals, diet/nutrition supplements and animal food.

“One factor at play here is the rising cost of grain, corn in particular. Its price has been driven up substantially due to its use in making ethanol, prompting even more interest in substituting partially with something less expensive and even more nutritional.

“To some extent the company’s capacity has been holding it back from being able to pursue and attract some of the large opportunities out there. To address, the company announced a $50 million private equity financing at $2.50 (with half a warrant at $3.25).

“Nutracea is not balking at adding all this capacity; the company has raised $50 million and these funds will be used for further expansion that will come on line in 2008 and will include the construction of one or more plants in Europe. Meanwhile, NutraCea has no debt.

“Gross margin is expected to run at nearly 50%. There is a lot to like here. Oh, and Monsanto owns 5%. With a story like this and growth like that, plus a PE of 30 on 2007 EPS and 14 on 2008, we rate NTRZ a buy to $4.”

A

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

NTRZ

Last year, BI Research, one of my very best and longest standing sources of stock ideas, named Taseko Mines (TGB) as it's "Favorite Stock for 2007. " TGB is up over 100% in 2007.

For it's favorite stock for 2008, it has named NutraCea (NTRZ), which has recently fallen from well over $4 a share to about $0.75 as I am writing this.

An introductory one year subscription to BI Research is only $95.

Here is a partial list of BI Research past picks:

TGB +436%
MJDLF +155%
ZOLT +68%
VTIV +135%
LIFC +239%


There have been some picks that haven't fared so well and some that have lost money. But, Hulbert has consistently ranked BI Research as one of it's top rated newsletters.

As for NutraCea, you'll have to shell out the $95 to find out why it's this coming year's favorite.

Needless to say, I'm, "all in."

A

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

On a more personal note

It's been awhile since I shared any secrets from my personal life. But it's 3:30am in the high desert of Arizona, and I am wide awake and thinking too much. One of my mentors growing up was Paul Simon. I'll let him bring us up to date with these beautiful words, that sums it all up.

A

Monday, December 10, 2007

MYE -gift

Another gift from MYE:

Myers says GS Capital seeks more time to complete acquisition

I personally already took profits on this late last week, but am back in it this morning after reading this and other reports on the deal. The gain to completion from current levels is now close to 50%.

A

Friday, December 07, 2007

Two Gurus

According to his own records, Jim Cramer's portfolio (that he sells access to via "Action Alerts Plus" $400/year service) is up 42.98% since January 1, 2002. For the six years, he is averaging 7.14% per year. During that same time frame, the Nasdaq Index is up 32%, or an average of a little over 5% a year. The S&P 500 is likewise up about 5% a year for that period. So give the little round man credit for longer-term outperformance. But it is a far cry from his boasting, "I am not here to make friends, I am her to make you rich." At 7% a year, how long will it take Jim to booyah us all to being rich?

Which brings me to Jim Rogers. A few years ago he published, "Hot Commodities" where he suggested that the commodities markets were the place to be. Since then, you actually could have become rich investing in futures contracts underlying almost any commodity he recommended in that book. A few days ago, Rogers published, "A Bull in China," which I am currently reading. His thesis this time is that economic trends in China strongly suggest that Chinese stocks and stocks of other companies with a strong presence in China's development from third world to world leadership, will provide similar opportunities for huge investment gains.

So there you have it. Watch, read and listen to Jim Cramer and barely beat out the market averages or read and listen to Jim Rogers and make a killing in the next dynamic investment opportunity of our lifetimes.

A tale of two gurus.

A

Thursday, December 06, 2007

FAQ

Question: Allan, do you walk on water?

Answer: No, I just trade stocks.

A

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

MYE

MYE is above $21.00 today. I bought it and posted about it on Monday, when it could have been purchased under $20 most of the day:

MYE is being bought for $22.50 this month. You can buy it right now, as I type, for $19.89. You do the math. Here is a link, I'm not making this up:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071130/myers_industries_m_a.html?.v=1



A

CVAS

CVAS just got touted by a bear service, The Gargoyle Investor. This is the first time EVER that Gargoyle has issued a Buy recommendation. I'm in at $2.65.

A

The Pay-Off

Today is pay-off day for the two dozen or so picks I have posted here in the past three days, especially yesterday's picks which were all based on my own, proprietary, short-term trading system. Based on the number of hits on my site, this kind work is drawing a lot of attention.

Stand-by, more picks coming.

A

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Two more....

....buying EGLE and PRGN.

CNB

Buying this one too, exit is your own decision.

A

ASTI, SIRF, LDK

Buying these right here, right now; exit whenever you want.

A

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Major Buy Signal

Going very long here, actually started building long trading positions late last week, based on proprietary technical analysis. The beauty of this Buy signal is that if the market fails to confirm it in the next few days, it will flip to a Sell signal that has historically been very profitable. Either way, there is muchos de dinero to be made.

The obvious questions in your minds is what does one buy to take advantage of this expected upswing? Again, using proprietary technical analysis, the following symbols have or are on the verge of triggering important Buys:

AAPL, DSX, DIA, GOOG, QQQQ, SIGM, SMH, & SPY;

Here are some new symbols from an unnamed source that picks stocks are pure fundamentals and has one of the best track records in Hulbert going back 20 years:

DLB, FSTR, SIGM, SXE, TISI;

And finally, some of the lower priced, small cap picks that have been mentioned here should do well in any meaningful end-of-year rally. Among this group:

CYTR, VLNC, TGB;

These are not recommendations in the sense I think you should buy them now and will tell you when to get out, nor should you expect a blog if and when the buy signal fails and a sell signal is triggered. That information would normally appear in my premium service, except I don't have a premium service.

All I do have are a lot of good ideas, or at least, they seem like good ideas at the time.

Well, I'm running down the road
tryin' to loosen my load
I've got seven women on
my mind,
Four that wanna own me,
Two that wanna stone me,
One says she's a friend of mine.


A

Friday, November 30, 2007

CYTR

One of my services just recommended CYTR. We've had this one our radar and in our accounts from much lower levels($1.20--->$3.40). Where does it go from here? Watch and see.

A

Well do ya, punk?

Case in point. Valence Technology. First posted here under $2, went up, went down, went back up. Now at $2.27. News out today: New Lithium-Ion Battery System


I know what you're thinking. "Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself a question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?

A

TANSTAAFL

Some readers have posted under the latest NNVC thread that not all my stocks go up and stay up and I have been somewhat derelict in posting when profits should have been taken on these trading ideas. Ergo the title of this Blog and some thoughts on the matter.

If you want me to do all the work, pay me. Either give me limited trading authority on your accounts and compensate me in some manner or another, or find the administrator of my hedge fund and look into what it takes to get accepted as an investor.

The only other way is to make this a pay site. I have resisted this path from the beginning, based on premise that my ideas are so good, I can give them away free, no strings attached and we all make money.

Profitable trading is a very difficult business, even in bull markets. My skills have been honed over 30 years of trial and error. What remains standing is a remarkable knack for coming out ahead, year after year. Some trades don't work, some months lose money. But the winners more then make up for it.

Getting back to my point, if you want me to take your hand and lead you through each and every trade, I'm ready, willing and able to do it. Managed accounts, hedge funds, or pay-for-view blogs. If you want it all for free, you're dreaming.

Professor James V. McConnell at the University of Michigan taught me behavioral science. Day one, lecture one, the Law of TANSTAAFL:

THERE AIN'T NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH

A

Monday, November 19, 2007

CNBC - "They Don't Like Jews"

I don't venture much into politics, but the current CNBC love-fest with Dubai cries out for some sober balance. Maybe it's here:

"How To Sell To Anti-Semites"

Friday, November 16, 2007

NNVC

NNVC is a development stage biotechnology company. We bought it when it's market cap was about $10M. Today it's market cap is about $50M, but it may be in a better risk:reward stance then it was at the $10M valuation.

Why? Hit these links:

(1) Recent interview with CEO.

(2) Summary of salient points posted on iHub.


A

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Dines' Picks

This article from last week identifies some of Jim Dines' picks and since it was published in a public domain I think it's fair to publish them here and now:



PETER BRIMELOW
Gold, uranium rises vindicate 'Original Bug'
Commentary: And Dines predicts commodities' prices will climb even higher
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Nov 5, 2007


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Original Uranium Bug and the Original Gold Bug (they're the same James Dines) is breathing easier.

Dines, the octogenarian editor of The Dines Letter, was our Investment Letter Editor of the Year in 2006. See Jan. 1 column

More than 20 ago, he brilliantly reinvented himself as an active stock trader, after arguably staying a little too long with his first great insight: that the inflationary 1960s would doom the dollar and boost gold. (Hence Original Gold Bug).
Dines' reinvention worked. The Dines Letter is up 28.2% over the past 12 months vs. 15.1% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest. And over the past 10 years, Dines is up an even more impressive 19.8% annualized vs. 7.4% for the total-return DJ Wilshire.

With spot gold back above $800 for the first time since 1980, Dines like many gold bugs could be pardoned for thinking that the conditions of his youth have returned. See Oct. 18 column

Indeed, Dines writes in his last letter, published in late October: "We would be very surprised if the gold price did not blast right through the old highs, and we reaffirm our old targets for gold of $3,000 to $5,000 an ounce (Plus silver over $100 an ounce) ... gold is not merely a colorful trinket but a monetary asset, and when mass fear strikes at the heart of paper money, the stampede to gold will be awesome."
What has really distinguished Dines in recent years, however, has been his advocacy of uranium. He argues that, ultimately, the only energy choice is between coal (resulting in global warming) and uranium.

When I last checked in with Dines, uranium had stumbled after a multi-year run. See Aug. 20 column

Dines was distressed but determined.

He now feels vindicated by the subsequent rebound, noting that many uranium stocks are back to the levels they achieved earlier this year.

He concludes: "Uranium action this year thus appears to be an example of an unusual "Major" consolidation, while the uranium market tries to figure out which path to take. We must remain stoically calm, and not allow our emotions to whip us back and forth ... Although stock market trends could change and force us to completely reassess the situation, events are proceeding as though an important bottom is behind us.""

Other Dines views: "Stock markets are getting a bit oversold here, and we are looking for a rally in the S&P 500 Index ($SPX)anytime, somewhere between the 1,420-1,495 areas, probably in November, paving the way for the traditional year-end rally."


But Dines still rates himself "long-term neutral" on stocks.

On bonds, Dines writes: "We are generally bearish, because bonds are overpriced. We would still avoid corporate or "junk" bonds, but instead stay with very short-term U.S Treasury paper or cash. We expect higher interest rates ahead ... This is not an enriching arena yet."

These stocks are rated "buys" in Dines' top-performing "Long-Term Growth" portfolio:

Pan American Silver Corp.
PAAS

Denison Mines Corp.
DNN

Laramide Resources Ltd.
LMRX.F

Fronteer Development Group Inc.
FRG

Mega Uranium Ltd.
MGAF.F

Paladin Resources
PALAF

Uranium One Inc
SXRZ.F

Arafura Resources I
ARAFF


Tuesday, November 06, 2007

"Our Next Killing"

In a special Interim Warning Bulletin this morning, Jim Dines had the following words for his The Dines Letter subscribers:


"As we have pondered how to lead our loyal, long-term TDLrs
toward our next "killing," our gaze has turned to something
important that has just happened. Very important. Profoundly
important.

"Silver has just made an Upside Breakout above $15/oz.
Not everybody will recognize the importance of silver's Upside
Breakout, for which we have been patiently watching like a cat
outside a mouse's hole."


We've made a lot of money off of Jim Dines over the past few years and I suspect this shot across the bow will result in more of the same.

A

Observations

TGB and VLNC continue to make new breakout highs and look outstanding. Dines' uranium stocks also are starting to move up very nicely, every day. Gold and Silver stocks also are providing some great trading opportunities. Gravitas as been on a Sell for a week, but is within 24 hours of a new Buy. The Red Wings look great, best start in years.

Monday, November 05, 2007

VLNC

Valence Technology was written up previously, around $2 a share, it fell into the low $1 area and has been running ever since bottoming in early summer '07. Beautiful base and breakout, not too late to get on board, high today is $2.21, but hopefully you still have your shares and/or have averaged down. This could run a long ways, hot sector and insider buying.

A

Saturday, November 03, 2007

Louis Navellier

Louis Navellier is one of my services, actually, two of them, Emerging Growth which is a monthly service and Quantum Growth, which is a weekly service. For today's lesson, all statistics are derived from the monthly service, Emerging Growth.

The newsletter is published once a month, on Fridays, after regular trading hours, but usually while after-hours trading is still open. Each monthly issue provides several "new buys" for subscribers.

The average stock price pop for these new buys from Friday's closing price to Monday's opening price is +3.61%

The average stock price gain for these new buys from Monday's opening price to Monday's High price of the day, is +2.81%


Since Labor day weekend, the S&P 500 is down 0.86%

Since Labor day weekend, the average gain for the new buys provided in the September and October newsletters, is +11.41%.

In these two newsletters, there were a total of 15 new buys. Of 15 new buys, 10 are profitable and 5 show losses. Again, if you bought all fifteen in equal amounts your net gain since Labor day is +11.41%.

Finally, Navellier has a new book out, "The Little Book That Makes You Rich: A Proven Market-Beating Formula for Growth Investing," in which he describes in the simplest of terms how he picks these stocks.

Someday maybe I'll write a book about how I trade these services for fun and profit. But right now, I'm having too much fun taking these services to the bank.

A

Thursday, November 01, 2007

Cramer

I just can't help myself, with the equity markets getting smashed Thursday morning, here is the recap from Cramer's TV show Wednesday:

Investors should set aside negative economic news and concerns about overvalued stocks and just concentrate on buying stocks and making money, Jim Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Wednesday.

Right now there is one problem facing investors: "they are overthinking this stock market," he said.

The market is not working the way the professionals think it should and thus the people who know more about investing are making less and the people who know less are making more, he said.

"There is a huge wall of money rolling at us courtesy of the Fed and it doesn't pay to over think it," Cramer said. "In fact it pays to not to over-think it." When money comes in, it drives stocks higher and that's all people should be looking at.


More here
.

A

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

NNVC

NanoViricides is on the move again, up about 30% in two days, over 250K shares traded just today. News is apparently behind this latest pop:

USAMRIID to Study NanoViricides Against Ebola

and this from last week:

NanoViricides, Inc. Presents at the Global Pharma R&D Summit
Nanoviricides Represent Dawn of a New Era in Antiviral Therapy, Says Company

Monday, October 29, 2007

World's Best Options Service

My rule about touting any newsletter or trading service is pretty simple and straight forward: If I personally make a lot of money trading it's recommendations, I tout it, if I feel like it.

Although I get approached by a lot of advisory services, precious few ever get mentioned on my blog. This one, is different. Not only have I made a substantial profit from following their recommended trades, but, it's an options service, a field notoriously glutted with losers and fraudulent promoters that prey on the greed inherent in a traders mentality and offer no value or substance in their advice.

But as I said, this one is different, it is probably the best options service I have ever used. They approached me about eight months ago about advertising on this site. I said that although I eschew advertising, I would consider reviewing their advisory service and reconsidering my policy and/or write them up if I thought they would bring any value to my readers. They started sending me their newsletter, I let several very profitable trades go by, then started acting on their trades, usually the kiss of death. To my surprise, the winners kept on coming.

In keeping with my word, I am recommending that anyone who is interested in trading options take look at this service. You can find them here:


Best Commodity & Currency Options

Here are their most recent, real time, real money recommended trades:

08/22/07: Buy BHP Jan 120 call @ $570; Currently $2,680.....+370%
08/23/07: Buy PCU Jan 100 call @ $1,150; Currently $3,580....+211%
09/04/07: Buy RIMM Mar 93.40 call @ $940; Currently $3,395...+261%
10/11/07: Buy FCX Feb 120 call @ $1,350; Currently $1,040....(23%)
10/16/07: Buy PBR Apr 95 call @ $550; Currently $890.........+62%

As you can see, not a lot of trading, but a lot of big, big winners. And that's just for the stock options. They also recommend commodity options. I don't trade commodities, but I have been following their recommended commodity option trades. Here is a sampling of trades they have recommended since I have been on their subscriber list:

Australian Dollar Calls +2,275%
Canadian Dollar Calls +319%
Crude Oil Calls +379%
Gold Calls +130%

As with the stock option recommended trades, what they lack in quantity, they make up for in quality. The cost of the service is $1,995 a year, or $200 a month, or for $99 you get a 60 day trial.

Options are risky, but the rewards are huge if you get it right. This service has been getting it right since I've been receiving their recommendations. Maybe it's a coincidence, or maybe they know what they are doing. I'm guessing and betting on the latter.

A

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

LFT

One of my services recommended LFT today under $25.00. It is a Chinese IPO that priced this morning at $17.50, but it opened for trading at $27, then fell as low as $23.25 and now is trading above $34 in after-hours. So why mention it here?

The market was a minefield today, but this stock held fast to it's $6+ premium from it's IPO price and soared once the market reversed it's spike low. There seems to be an LFT everyday, no matter what the general market is doing.

This is the stuff of daytrading. As Ken Kesey said to the Merry Pranksters, you're either on the bus or off the bus.

Heads-up.

A

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Market Timing & Cramer

Gravitas - Xyber9 nailed last week's decline and flipped Long over this past weekend. Is this market timing system tradable? I think that depends on the trader, not the system. We have seen it hit and miss, get whacked by exogenous market events, then turn on a dime and nail a 400 point decline. Not for the skittish.

Cramer - Finally pulled ahead of the S&P 500, Cramer +10% versus S&P up 7% for the year. That said, his "Stocks Under $10" service at his Street.com company is ahead 15% for the year. I hear him now, in the background, already pumping another book. Sigh.

A

Freefall

I jumped
my first sense
desperate regret
arms and legs flailing,
trying to slow my descent
reaching back
no, this is not what I meant
not what I want.

Lying below, a splattered self
now my arms are still
my legs motionless
resolved;
that is me
awaiting the end.

Flashing snippets
of the past five years
memories seeking,
then finding
a way
to freedom.....
to live on
in another
and not perish in the spirit
lying motionless,
breathless,
lifeless,
on the ground below.

Awake again,
still alone,
a single choice
in the dark;
to watch the freefall unfold
from above
or below.

Monday, October 15, 2007

Hollowing out my heart

I know this appears somewhere down below;
once my best friend,
now a closed door:

These Days

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

TGB & PWER

TGB was a $4 pick in July, won the race to $5 between it and PWER, also a $4 stock at the time and TGB has today topped $6.00. For those keeping score, PWER is the laggard still, only up to $5.64 today.


Between the two of them, some nice percentage gains for a three-month sprint.

A

Monday, October 01, 2007

CORT & DSCO

With CORT just about a double for us, Ilene, who suggested CORT to me in the first place, just now called in another one, DSCO.

Apparently, DSCO has been having regulatory hurdle after hurdle, causing it's stock price to fall from over $8 at the beginning of 2007 to under $2 this summer. It's up 12% today on, "very good" regulatory news.

Above $3 today on heavy volume, the chart and news are in sync suggesting DSCO may be on it's way to closing part or even all of that gap down earlier in the year.

A

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Nanobac Pharmaceuticals

This one was bought under 10 cents in May, see Blog.

Today it's at $0.16, for over 60% in about four months. From the looks of things, there is a lot more to come.

A

Thursday, September 20, 2007

NNVC

In case you haven't been watching, NNVC bottomed at $0.45 around Labor day and is at $0.80 today, September 20th. Volume has been well above average. They will be presenting at a conference next week. Who wants to bet someone knows something?

A

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

CORT Running

CORT, first mentioned here, is up over $2 today, over 80%, on a CNBC story.

I've got well over a double on my shares, but am looking for more.

A

Friday, September 07, 2007

Provectus Pharmaceuticals

Near the close Friday, PVCT is up 9.34% for the day on over a million shares. Average daily volume (past three months) is 156K.

A

Thursday, September 06, 2007

PVCT

One of my services (GRESSOR) is pumping PVCT as "curing cancer" and running toward $50 a share (now $2.50). Pipe dream? Stock broke out on Aug 23rd at $1.85 on heavy volume, popped 33% since then on even heavier volume. I've bought PVCT during this run.

PVCT web site.

A

NNVC & NVAX

In the past few days NNVC is up 40% off it's lows on very heavy volume.

Also keep an eye on NVAX, lots of recent insider buying.

A

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

SPZI

SPZI is a pink sheet stock selling for just over a penny a share.

Here is a recent profile from Wall Street Finance.

Here is link to the SPZI Investors Hub Board

Here is a snapshot of what they do:

Spooz, Inc. invents and markets revolutionary trading technology and solutions for professional trader’s, active traders, and financial institutions. After four years in development and $2.5 million invested Spooz is rolling out its first two major revenues producers.

The market cap of SPZI is under $6MM. Lot's of room to run if even any of the hype is real. Bought several hundred thousand shares this morning, looking to add if my DD going forward pans out.

A

Monday, September 03, 2007

Stole Me Away

Stole Me Away

Hello, again.
It seems like forever between now and then.
You look the same.
I mean, you look different but you haven't changed.

Funny, to think how the time gets away.
Funny, how you take me right back again.

Stole me away.
The first time I saw you you did me that way.
What should I say?

I saw you laughing, when I was afraid I might get in the way.
I did not think I would see you again, So How have you been?
Do you remember, I mean everything?

Sunday, September 02, 2007

If I Were a King

I guess its a music weekend. This song by Dave Matthews was given to me by my daughter Sarah, now in her first year of college. Along with the performance video I'm including the lyrics, because they speak to how much Sarah understands her Dad, and how much she understands herself. This is not just a kid with a song she likes, this is a kindred soul, reaching out to another kindred soul, in comfort and understanding. Enjoy.

Below is a link to Dave Matthews singing it, and below that the lyrics, which you can follow by opening the link in a new window.

A

If I Had It All


Sometimes I can't move my feet it seems
As if I'm stuck in the ground somehow like a tree
As if I can't even breathe
Oh, and my screams come whispering out

As if nobody can even see me
Like a ghost, sometimes I can't see myself
Sometimes, then again, oh

If I were a king
If I had everything
If I had you and I could give you your dreams
If I were giant-sized, on top of it all
Then tell me what in the world would I go on for
If I had it all

Sometimes I feel lost
As I pull you out like strings of memories
Wish I could weave them into you
Then I could figure the whole damn puzzle out
Then again, oh

And if I were a king
If I had everything
If I had you and I could give you your dreams
If I were giant-sized, on top of it all
Then tell me what in the world would I go on for
If I had it all

I could take anything
If I had no greed to bring
Only the poison that's tainting the clean
Oh, then nothing

Remembering times much younger than me now
When my breath was light
When the world raised me up kind

And here mother comforts child
Every moment was waking up
But now I've grown tired... out

If I had it all, you know
I'd fuck it up

If I were a king
If I had everything
If I had you and I could give you your dreams
If I were giant-sized, on top of it all
Then tell me what in the world would I sing for...

If I were a king
If I had everything, piece by piece
If I had you if I could give you your dreams
If I were giant-sized, on top of it all
Then tell me what in the world would I go on for
If I had it all
If I had it all

If I had it all

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Serendipity

Serendipity is a 2001 romantic movie, starring Kate Beckinsale and John Cusack.

At the end of this Blog, there is a link to a short clip from the movie. In that clip is a Nick Drake song.

Plot

Tagline: Can once in a lifetime happen twice?

On a bustling shopping day in winter, Jonathan meets Sara when both try to buy the same pair of gloves at Bloomingdale's department store. Two strangers amid the masses in New York City, their paths collide in the mad holiday rush as they feel a mutual attraction. Despite the fact that each is involved in another relationship, Jonathan and Sara spend the evening travelling Manhattan. But when the night reaches its inevitable end, the two are forced into determining some kind of next step. When the smitten Jonathan suggests an exchange of phone numbers, Sara balks and proposes an idea that will allow fate to take control of their future. If they are meant to be together, she tells him, they will find their way back into one another's life.

Clip from movie.

A

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Don't......

...everyone fall over yourselves congratulating me for CORT, up another 10% since my post yesterday. I guess everyone is glued to CNBC waiting to Cramer to come on to Erin Burnett, again.

Sigh,

A

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

CORT - update

After trading as high as $3.00 on Monday, CORT has declined to $2.77 today, Tuesday. The pivot break-out on CORT was $2.74 and it is not unusual for a stock to make an initial pop and then retrace to it's break-out price level before taking off for good.

This was published on Briefing.com this morning:

CORT Corcept Therapeutics: Speculator's Radar -- former biotech bust is making a comeback; thinly traded though (2.83 -0.13)

Corcept Therapeutics was given up for dead as recently as April when it was trading at $0.75, but it's now near a new 52-wk high and showing good momentum with some potential catalysts up ahead.... Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) is a development stage biotech co focusing on severe psychiatric disorders associated with a steroid hormone called cortisol. The co's lead product candidate, Corlux, modulates the effect of cortisol by blocking the binding of cortisol to one of its two known receptors. The stock sold off in Aug 2006 when the co announced that three clinical trials failed. However, the co thinks it learned enough, particularly regarding the necessary plasma level, to design a Phase 3 trial that will be successful. CORT expects to begin enrollment for this new study in Q1 and the co has been granted fast track status by the FDA... Psychotic major depression, or PMD, is a serious psychiatric disorder that affects 3 mln Americans. It's more prevalent than schizophrenia or bipolar I disorder. PMD is characterized by severe depression accompanied by psychosis (delusions and/or hallucinations). People with PMD are 70x more likely to commit suicide and often require lengthy and expensive hospital stays. There is currently no FDA-approved treatment for PMD, and CORT is hoping to become the first. Current PMD treatments include electroshock therapy and combination drug therapy but they both have slow onsets and debilitating side effects.... Aside from the PMD trial, another potential catalyst is the co's co-development deal with Eli Lilly (LLY) evaluating Corlux's ability to mitigate weight gain when using the antipsychotic drug Zyprexa (90% of users gain weight). The stock spiked when the co reported positive trial results in June.... Bottom Line, this stock was given up for dead as recently as April when it was trading at $0.75, but it has been showing good momentum lately as its upcoming PMD Phase 3 trial and its Zyprexa weight gain benefit are potential catalysts . Also, Alta Partners disclosed yesterday that it has taken a 10.8% stake. Any biotech stock trading below $3 is speculative, but in light of these recent developments and strong momentum, we wanted to put this one on your radar . Mkt cap $99 mln, float 12.8 mln, avg vol 99K. (PROFX)


A

Thursday, August 23, 2007

CORT

Back in the good ole' days, we had much success with small biotechnology stocks that had fires lit under them for one reason or another. Corcept Therapeutics may very well be our entre into reliving those tumultuous, yet very profitable times.

On August 20, 2007, CORT announced, "....A private placement of approximately 4.8 million shares of its common stock at a price of $2.10 per share, pursuant to a definitive agreement dated as of August 16, 2007 entered into with accredited investors."

CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS ANNOUNCES $10.1 MILLION PRIVATE EQUITY FINANCING


It turns out that some of those accredited investors are some very savvy biotechnology investors with close ties to the early investors in Amylin Pharmaceuticals. Others include a host of CORT insiders comprising of Directors and/or 10% owners. What if anything do these insiders know?

A speculation from Yahoo message board:


Is CORT the next AMLN ?

As AMLN moves(short covering)to an all time high with news out soon,an interesting story aboput CORT should be known.

The major investors here are Joe Cook,Paperboy Ventures and Allan Andersson.The 3 names probably dont mean much but Amylin was pulled from the ashes by these 3 people and now as a payback Joe Cook has given Allan a heads up on this Company.
Cook the BOD chairman with Amylin hasnt forgotton his friend and that alone makes CORT interesting


CORT has a market cap of about $89MM, just small enough so that it's conceivable that a little bit of good lab/regulatory news doubles or triples the market cap and stock price in a relatively short period of time.

The private placement was at $2.10 a share on August 17, 2007. I've started buying CORT today, under $2.60 and plan to buy more as my due diligence proceeds.

A

Monday, August 20, 2007

NNVC +10% today

For the faithful still hanging on:

Dengue Virus Therapeutics Program Accelerated at NanoViricides

For the upteenth time, watch price and volume on this one. Since moving to the Bulletin Board, NNVC has attracted 10 market makers and a tight spread. Price and volume will mean all that much more.

A

What Barron's Missed

Year-to-Date 2007

S&P 500: +2.09%
Jim Cramer Subscribers: -1.68%

A

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Cramer Exposed

Cramer is the cover story in Barron's this weekend. Vindicates all of what has been posted here and more. Some excerpts from the article follow.

A

Free access courtesy of Barrons:

Shorting Cramer

--------------------

When we asked Cramer and CNBC for their own records of Mad Money's stock-picking performance, they had more excuses than a Tour de France cyclist dodging a blood test.


Over two years, YourMoneyWatch has tracked 1,300 Mad Money picks. It's this tally that shows Cramer's stocks lagging behind the Dow and the S&P 500.


Then there's the day-after-pop phenomenon. Our analysis of Cramer's picks over the past two years, from YourMoneyWatch.com, showed that, on average, the stocks jumped 2% the day after he mentioned them. From there, they usually moved sideways or down for the following 30 trading days (see chart). This offered an opportunity to make money -- 5% to 30% a year -- by selling Cramer's selections short.

If Mad Money offers unconvincing proof of Cramer's long-term stock-picking prowess, so does his account of his hedge-fund activities. His memoir suggests that some of Cramer Berkowitz's profit came from clever trading. The $300 million fund might execute hundreds of trades a day, some of them a bit gimmicky. Cramer describes how they'd find a stock in which selling had petered out, then build a position. Next, they'd hunt up some bullish news on the company and feed it to sellside analysts and reporters. On the subsequent rise, Cramer could profit by selling out his position. "Buzz merchandising," his book calls it. Smart and effective, but definitely not in the fuddy-duddy style of Graham & Dodd.

Jim Cramer has defined himself as a financial journalist who gives you clear Buy and Sell recommendations to make you money. If he's serious about that mission, he or CNBC should publish a database that tracks all his picks from the show's launch date. Even cheerleaders need to be accountable.

Monday, August 13, 2007

Follow-Up Request- Cramer's Record

GUEST BLOG


Hello AllAllan Readers:

Although I am neither a stock trader nor a follower of Jim Cramer’s, I’ve been following this blog thread for some time now and am interested in following up on this topic.

I’ve been told by various individuals, including but not limited to Allan Harris, that Cramer’s portfolio does not consistently outperform the stock market. They indicate that he is as much ahead of the market in any given year as he is behind it.

I checked his website and, since I am not willing to pay for his service, I cannot verify these statements.

I’m certainly aware of his popularity and am interested if this is due ONLY to his personality and NOT to his actual ROE performance. If that is the case, that, in my opinion, would be an outrageous circumstance.

Thus, my questions to the readership are:

1) Can anyone else confirm or deny, on the record, that they have followed this portfolio and that it has underperformed (or at least not consistently outperformed) the stock market index returns?

2) Has anyone seen a counter-documentary on this guy from an outside and objective news source or publication of some substance? If so, could you provide a citation?

3) I’m told that FOX is starting its own all-business cable channel soon to compete with CNBC. Can anyone verify this?

4) If #3 above is true, does anyone have any personal internal contacts at FOX with whom we could correspond? It seems that this would be an interesting story.

5) While his portfolio profits, if any, go to charity, can anyone tell me where the revenue from his website are purported to go? If they go to him or to CNBC that would seem to be a significant conflict of interest. What about revenue from sales of books, or DVDs or other materials? Do such revenues, if any, go to charity as well? This would be materially different from TV advertising revenue which we would assume would go to the cable network itself and should- CNBC needs to get its bills paid. But it would be interesting to know if this secondary revenue stream of books, DVDs, etc. went to Cramer personally or to CNBC instead of to charity.

Again, I am neither a fan of Cramer’s nor do I have any economic interest at all in being one of his detractors, but I am somewhat astonished if this is, in fact, a monumental case of the emperor’s having no clothes.

Indeed, if what I’ve been reading here is even remotely true, the emperor seems to not even to know the way to the tailor.

Thanks for your comments,


Professor John Kercheval

Cramer Update

I couldn't resist:

Year-to-date

S&P 500..........+3.26%
Jim Cramer:......-0.10%


He is actually underwater, losing money, no profits for sick kids because Mr. Booyah is so damn smart.

Come-on CNBC, how about a little truth in advertising?

A

Saturday, August 11, 2007

Xyber9

Below is a link to an updated spreadsheet that is the actual paper trades of Xyber9 (formerly known as Gravitas) market timing. As of Saturday, August 11, 2007, the account has appreciated $72,682 from a starting balance of $102,415 on May 31, 2007.

This amounts to return of 71% in about 10 weeks. At 7.1% per week, this works out to an annual return rate of 370%. Of the ten closed market timing signals, seven were profitable and three were net losers. This is totally consistent with my own back-testing, going back about 16 months, where I determined 75% accuracy in the forecasted direction of these short-term signals.

In my years of stock market trading, I've seen market timing systems come and go. Some hit hot streaks and look good for a short while, then fall about taking your investment dollars with them. Others appeal to the intellectual crowd because their inflated egos demand some rational order to the universe that only they and their self-defined smarts can recognize. These too always result in financial devastation to the unsuspecting, naive and easily infatuated gamblers among us.

But I have never seen a market forecast model perform as consistently and accurately as Xyber9. One out of four of these forecasts are going to fail. Three out of four will be profitable. Can you make money with those kinds of odds? If not, get out of the game....NOW.....before you have nothing left, except blame and regret.

For the rest of us, Xyber9 is Long for the coming week.

Xyber9 Trade Report

A

Friday, August 10, 2007

NCT

Significant Insider-Buy today in NCT, Newcastle Investment Corp. Chief Operating Officer bought 50,000 shares @ $16.88 per share. NCT is down from $32 in January on credit market crash. But this I-Buy suggests reaction here is way overdone.

Don't underestimate the power of the panic, but if you want to dip your toes in the water, following a COO is not a bad way to do it.

A

Xyber9 (aka Gravitas)

After weathering a drawdown, the Xyber9 short trade entered on 8/3 moved significantly into the money on Thursday's market action. Those of you who have been critical of this methodology, please take note. Over this weekend I hope to write a more complete Blog on Xyber9 performance. Out of respect to current paid subscribers of the service, no further details until then.


A

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Jim Cramer's Truth

By now everyone has seen the CNBC spot where Jim Cramer lost it railing against the Fed for, "Not getting it," as his hedge fund friends go under one by one. Time to update our Jim Cramer scorecard.

How has Cramer's Action Alerts portfolio done year-to-date when compared to the S&P 500 index?

Year-to-date, 2007:

S&P 500 Index = +4.49%
Jim Cramer's AA portfolio = +2.26%


He is doing about half as well as a simple index fund. At least he isn't losing money.....that is, if we can trust his computations. He wouldn't be fudging on his entries and exits, would he?

A

Monday, July 30, 2007

Gravitas Report

The past few months (actually 14 months in total) has seen some remarkably accurate market timing by Robert Taylor's Xyber9 methodology, which we affectionately refer to as Gravitas. Those of you who have read Taylor's novel, Paradigm, know where that name came from.

The following link will take you to an actual real time report trading these signals using the QLD, the 2X Beta fund of the Nasdaq 100, going long on Buys and short on Sells. Since June 1, 2007, the account, using only the Xyber9 signals, has appreciated from a beginning balance of $102,415 to a current, "mark-to-market" balance of $166,994. During this time there were 8 closed trades, six of which were winners and one Open trade which is up about $3,000.

The account is a "Paper Trade" account through Interactive Brokers. IB Paper Trade accounts are REAL accounts in every respect, except that the funds are imaginary. They accurately model slippage, commissions and the true availability of instruments at the instant of execution. Real money results would be very similar to the paper trade results.

Xyber9 Trade Report

A

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Emails

Over the past 48 hours, my dot mac email account was hijacked by a scam called Volkswagon Automobile Lottery Promo out of the United Kingdom. No emails sent to me at my apharris email account have gotten through. It has all now been fixed and my email account is working properly.

A

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Gravitas

Heads-Up

Robert Taylor, whose discoveries of market timing cycles I have been referring to here as Gravitas, has opened a new web site documenting his methodology:

Xyber9.com


Well worth spending some time taking it all in.

Gravitas remains Short a few more days.

A

Friday, July 20, 2007

GOOG

Nice write-up on Google's earnings today by David Gordon: Hitting the barn door.


Gravitas: Went short, yesterday's close or today's open, either way another amazing timing signal.

A

Thursday, July 19, 2007

TGB

In the race for which of our three recent $4 picks hits $5 first (a short-term gain of about 25%), TGB is racing ahead of the field, up almost 9% today at $4.85.


Background: GSS, TGB & PWER

Gravitas: Nearing a reversal in trend.

A

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

GSS

GSS was an I-Buy Sally Alert a few weeks ago:

Thursday, June 21, 2007
GSS
Those of you getting Sally Alerts already know this, but it is worth repeating that the CFO of Golden Star Resources purchased 50K shares, $184K worth of GSS, at $3.69 per share on June 20th.Gold sector, low-priced stock, CFO, all add up to following his lead. GSS is down from a high of $4.95 in April. Currently $3.68 X $3.69.


Today, Gold is running and GSS is at $4.10, up over 10% in less then a month. Let's add GSS to TGB and PWER as speculative buys, all under $5.00 a share (for now).

A

KLIC & $DOT

Two excellent teaching-learning videos from Eric Muathe:

KLIC

$DOT



A

Monday, July 16, 2007

Five Percent

Since this post, two days ago, each mentioned stock is up over 5%.

Gravitas remains Long.

A

Friday, July 13, 2007

Bear Trap

This was written by Richard Nelson on Tuesday, before the big run-up. His site is worth checking out, combines his own market timing tools with proprietary (but simple) stock-picking methodology. It's rare to find a service that does both, let alone does both well.

The McClellan Summation chart and % Stocks over their 40ma chart are showing market upside coming. Based on these 2 charts, today's sell-off was a bear trap. The hourly VXO chart ended today at an extended high opening the door tomorrow for a reflex rally. Check the trading room archive for chart links shown through the day. I will try to always make sure they show up in the text from hereforth. By the way, yesterday's unfulfilled downside value area sweep signal was consumated in the first 5 minutes of today's action.



A

Thursday, July 12, 2007

TGB & PWER

TGB and PWER are a couple of low-priced picks that are working and continue to look attractive at current levels.

TGB was a Muathe pick on July 3rd, up about 15% in two weeks;

PWER was an I-Buy pick from early June, up about 20% and looking ready to break-out if it takes out it's June high of $4.40.

Gravitas now in Buy mode.

A

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Jim Cramer Update

2007 Year-to-Date
Nasdaq +9.50%
S&P 500 +6.89%
Jim Cramer +5.98%

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

New Picks

Sicko by Michael Moore

Big Love on HBO

Extras on HBO

Curb Your Enthusiasm, new season in September, on HBO

As for some new stock picks, Gravitas is on a Sell until later this week, then flips Long for about ten days, so let's be patient.

A

PS: Bonus Pick: iPhone

Friday, July 06, 2007

Gravitas

Gravitas SP 500 trade:

Buy: June 28 @ 1506
Current: July 6 @ 1527


Source: Taylor Trends


A

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

NNVC

NNVC begins trading on OTC Bulletin Board tomorrow, June 28th.

Good time to start paying attention to price and volume again. We are looking for higher prices on higher volume and for NNVC shares to finally be rid of pink sheet manipulations of bid and ask.

A

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Gilder Speaks

The follow quote is from George Gilder, who posted it on his Gilder Technology Forum in a thread that was critical of The Secret, a popular self-help concept that empowers the individual through visualization techniques. Since Gilder has ceased publishing his newsletter, this is one way for us to remember the best of what he brings to our collective table:

"These mathematics and statistics refer to a zero sum world, where the successes of some come at the expense of the rest and at the cost of the planet. It is the prevailing socialist illusion and environmentalist dirge. But under capitalism, wealth is not captured but created. The good fortune of others is also your own. The success of the poor is your greatest hope. And the attitudes of people--their optimism and enterprise--determines the incidence of opportunity around the globe.

"I have not read or seen "the secret." But action and entrepreneurial verve, born of faith, bear their own magic. To a connoisseur of Bell Curves, the world will seem a "random walk", with a predictable range of outcomes, yielding a few born "geniuses," a few lucky Trumps, and a mean mass of envious mediocrity seething in the middle and the media focusing on the persistence of poverty and the rise of inequality, poring over Gini coefficients and "distributions" and keening over climate change. Only a believer in the possibility of creation will see infinite opportunity in grains of sand and spin them into worldwide webs of glass and light and gold.

"The growth of the American economy, with just five percent of the people of the globe, into a colossus with 30 percent of global GDP and fifty percent of market capitalization, while China and India, Japan and Korea, lead a simultaneous surge of billions of Asians into prosperity, with a global total of more than a hundred trillion dollars of new wealth creation in two decades, is incomprehensible to the zero sum mind.

"Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan) may err in his treatment of randomness, but he is right in presenting his own version of "the secret": pursue always the miracles of upside wealth from invention and innovation, which dwarf all the Bell curves of "distributed" income and wealth.

"Wealth is not distributed. It is not seized. It is not won in a lottery or a casino. It is created in a universe of ideas with infinite horizons."

A

Saturday, June 23, 2007

A Mighty Heart

Everyone should see this movie. Not just for a career performance by Angelina Jolie. But for the message it sends out about what evil there is in the world and how it effects us on an individual level. It will weigh heavy on all who see it, a point that becomes ever increasingly clear and powerful as the movie drifts along it's path to the anti-climatic end we already know. Highly recommended.

A

Friday, June 22, 2007

Gravitas

Sell June 19th.......S&P 1531
June 22nd....S&P 1504

Source: Taylor Trends


A

Thursday, June 21, 2007

GSS

Those of you getting Sally Alerts already know this, but it is worth repeating that the CFO of Golden Star Resources purchased 50K shares, $184K worth of GSS, at $3.69 per share on June 20th.

Gold sector, low-priced stock, CFO, all add up to following his lead. GSS is down from a high of $4.95 in April. Currently $3.68 X $3.69.

A

Monday, June 18, 2007

PTSC

Old friend PTSC up 30% today (Monday) on this NEWS item. Watch price and volume going forward.

A

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Gravitas

SELL (open June 6th) SPX 1530
BUY (open June 12th) SPX 1509
CURRENT (June 14th) SPX 1522

Source: Taylor Trends



A

Monday, June 11, 2007

NRMX

Neurochem is releasing data on their Alzheimer trials any time now, watch it. MDVN on similar news is up 25% today.

A

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Droplets

I found this link over on David Gordon's blog and it touched me enough to come out of hiding and blog again. It's called "Droplets," a song by Colbie Caillet & Jason Reeves. Just click to listen.

A



I'm leaving you
I'm not sure if that's what I should do
It hurts so bad
I'm wanting you but cant go back
Trying to find, to find
That all elusive piece of mind
Stuck here somehow
Shrouded beneath my fear
And now I don't need it

Cuz I'm walkin down this road alone and figured all I'm thinking bout is you, is you my love
And my head is in a cloud of rain and the world it seems so far away and i'm just waiting for
The droplets, droplets

You left a mark
I wear it proudly on my chest
Above my heart Above my heart
To Remind me that I feel the best
When I'm with you When I'm with you
To me everything is effortless
You know its true
My eyes are painted with regret and I don't need it

Cuz I'm walkin down this road alone and figured all I'm thinking bout is you, is you my love
And my head is in a cloud of rain and the world it seems so far away and I'm just waiting to fall and sink into your tears

You are like the raindrops, the raindrops falling down on me
You left a mark (you left a mark)
She left a mark (he left)
She left (he left)
And I don't (I dont)
Need it. (Need it)

Friday, June 01, 2007

NNVC

Just popping back in briefly to point out very interesting price and volume patterns with old favorite, NNVC. These sort of patterns have led to good trading rallies in the past. Egghead idiots who question the science are not traders, they are arrogant, dangerous, articulate incompetents. The only thing that counts is profits, being right or wrong on the underlying science has no place in a trader's arsenal.

A

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Leaving Las Vegas

Room 8057
Mirage Hotel
Las Vegas, Nevada
May 29, 2007
8:30PM (PT)

I am taking a leave of absence from writing this blog as well as responding to all electronic communications from my friends. Since all my friends read my blog, this seems like the most efficient way to let you know I am not responding to emails for awhile, so don't take it personally.

It is time to disappear, reflect, be invisible and find a path to healing.

I will of course continue to trade.

Losing love hurts, but losing it suddenly, inexplicably, devastatingly, will remain one of this life's mysteries, and it will haunt me all my remaining days.

Ironically, my ex-wife Roslyn, who has every reason to hate me, but doesn't, summed it up like this:

"Allan, you are a nice guy and nice guys are hard to find. You deserve better."

A

Saturday, May 26, 2007

Sarah

From time to time, I have written about my daughter, Sarah. Here is a link to some of the relevent posts about her.

But none of that matters today. I have just now returned to my rented villa on Seabrook Island, returned from Sarah's most excellent High School Graduation ceremony.

There wasn't a single one of Sarah's teachers that did not come up to me to laud on my Sarah, including Dr. Shirley, the Headmaster, who summed it all up with, "Sarah is special."

Yes, Sarah is special. This was her day and I have never had a prouder moment in my life then when her named was called and Sarah walked across the stage to receive her diploma.

This blog is for all of you who have taken the time to write me about my daughters over the years, after I posted some very personal angst, usually out of desperation to talk to someone, even if it was to a group of anonymous friends.

For this moment, I am beaming.

A

Friday, May 25, 2007

CNBC $1M Portfolio Contest

This is a joke, right? It is fundamentally flawed. Look at the leaders and their respective methodologies. Every one of the top performers got there by taking extraordinary risks in their portfolios of play money, buying massively in front of earnings announcements, buying takeover rumors, buying high risk high reward situations across the board. No one in their right mind trades like that.

If CNBC wants a real contest, make participants put up their own real money, $50,000 per account of their own funds. Now let's see who knows what they're doing.

A

Thursday, May 24, 2007

NNBP

This one was brought to my attention by Don Wolanchuk, it's called Nanobac Pharmaceuticals It has only a $24M market cap and is selling at 9-10 cents a share. It was as high as 33 cents a share in November, 2006. I'm in.

A

Monday, May 21, 2007

Stocks and Bulls

Catchy name? I stumbled across this site about a month ago and have had nothing but stellar success with their recommended trades since then. Their concept is a bit longer-term then I am used to, with average hold time a bit under 10 days and with average gains above 5%. Doesn't sound spectacular, but, as you should know by now, when it comes to short-term trading, consistency trumps spectacular where the latter is so elusive and the former is actually doable.

Free trials and inexpensive monthly subscriptions make this trading site easily accessible and worth a visit.

A

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Phoenix Airport

Waiting for my flight to Charleston SC at the Phoenix airport, a week on the beach with my daughters, on my Sprint EVDO card and Apple Powerbook, traveling alone, what a long, strange trip it's been.

My daughter Sarah graduates High School on May 26th, Charleston Collegiate School and is off to college in the fall. She has had a rough teenage period, finally set straight about one year ago and now is making me one proud papa. There are bonds and there are bonds, the bond between parent and child is such a miracle of nature, nurtured through millions of years of evolution and manifests itself, from time to time, with a cascade of tears, some wet, some invisible, but always, always, empirical proof of the existence of love.

As for your humble servant who presides over AllAllan, I have from time to time used the lyrics and words of others to communicate my travails, especially recently. Sometimes, it has been said perfectly already, so why not borrow perfection when available? You guessed it:

Then take me disappearin' through the smoke rings of my mind,
Down the foggy ruins of time, far past the frozen leaves,
The haunted, frightened trees, out to the windy beach,
Far from the twisted reach of crazy sorrow.
Yes, to dance beneath the diamond sky with one hand waving free,
Silhouetted by the sea, circled by the circus sands,
With all memory and fate driven deep beneath the waves,
Let me forget about today until tomorrow.

Hey! Mr. Tambourine Man, play a song for me,
I'm not sleepy and there is no place I'm going to.
Hey! Mr. Tambourine Man, play a song for me,
In the jingle jangle morning I'll come followin' you.


A

Friday, May 18, 2007

Cramer YTD

Year to date the S&P is +7.38%
Year to date Jim Cramer is +5.57%

Who on CNBC will confront him on his underperformance?

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Two Roulette Picks

NTRZ - getting creamed by 20% this morning on recognition of sales issue from one quarter to the next. Overreaction opportunity?

CAMH - on the other hand this one is up 5% on the CEO buying $189K worth of stock after the close yesterday. Muathe-type breakout pattern suggesting sustained run from here.


A

Monday, May 14, 2007

Some People Change

Some People Change

Here's to the strong; thanks to the brave.
Don't give up hope: some people change.
Against all odds, against the grain,
Love finds a way: some people change.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

In my own words

Allan, Lets here you write something original, from your own heart. Tell us in your own words whats really going on. After all, none of us can afford to lose you.


I left last Thursday. Packed my car with all that I am, and drove away. The drive was punctuated with numerous phone calls, with friends, family members and her. By the time I stopped for the night, there was a chance she would fly down to Salt Lake City and we could talk in person. The next morning, those plans fell apart and I drove south toward Las Vegas.

Again, phone calls between us covered a lot of what was wrong. A new plan, hope, materialized. She would meet me in Las Vegas for the weekend and we would take it one day at a time. Friday night, she flew down to Vegas to spend the week-end with me. We enjoyed each other like it used to be. And in our hearts kindled the fire that first drew us together. And we talked, why and what had driven me to leave. The fundamental issues whose shadows cast ominously across the growing distance between us. We can fix this. We are meant to be and we will survive and be stronger from it all.

On Sunday afternoon, I drove on to Phoenix, she flew back to Spokane. We parted optimistic that this was temporary and we had a plan to fix what was wrong and be back together. That was then, this is now. For reasons inexplicable, it feels so over. I am going through withdrawal, am missing her as I would my heart if it stayed behind. And it did.

She and I had something that most only dream of in their lives. We shared an awakening, a coming together, a love that will touch us both for the rest of our lives. The prospect of its demise, of our being apart and now, of what was a happily ever after story book ending never coming to pass, is causing me great emotional pain.

I know she will not like my sharing this here, but this is what I wrote her tonight:


just so you know, from the moment i left,
all i ever needed from you was,
"allan, come home."
if that is what is at the end of this journey, maybe it will still be enough,
or maybe it will be more complicated.
i know now
you were my home
and you will always be
but now
the path seems so uncertain
and i find it so hard
to search for that home
when one already was.
i love you, ib

a

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

I Want You

The guilty undertaker sighs,
The lonesome organ grinder cries,
The silver saxophones say I should refuse you.
The cracked bells and washed-out horns
Blow into my face with scorn,
But it's not that way,
I wasn't born to lose you.
I want you, I want you,
I want you so bad,
Honey, I want you.

The drunken politician leaps
Upon the street where mothers weep
And the saviors who are fast asleep,
They wait for you.
And I wait for them to interrupt
Me drinkin' from my broken cup
And ask me to
Open up the gate for you.
I want you, I want you,
I want you so bad,
Honey, I want you.

Now all my fathers, they've gone down
True love they've been without it.
But all their daughters put me down
'Cause I don't think about it.

Well, I return to the Queen of Spades
And talk with my chambermaid.
She knows that I'm not afraid
To look at her.
She is good to me
And there's nothing she doesn't see.
She knows where I'd like to be
But it doesn't matter.
I want you, I want you,
I want you so bad,
Honey, I want you.

Now your dancing child with his Chinese suit,
He spoke to me, I took his flute.
No, I wasn't very cute to him,
Was I?
But I did it, though, because he lied
Because he took you for a ride
And because time was on his side
And because I . . .
I want you, I want you,
I want you so bad,
Honey, I want you.

Cactus Tree

There's a man who's been out sailing
In a decade full of dreams
And he takes her to a schooner
And he treats her like a queen
Bearing beads from California
With their amber stones and green
He has called her from the harbor
He has kissed her with his freedom
He has heard her off to starboard
In the breaking and the breathing
Of the water weeds
While she was busy being free

There's a man who's climbed a mountain
And he's calling out her name
And he hopes her heart can hear three thousand miles
He calls again
He can think her there beside him
He can miss her just the same
He has missed her in the forest
While he showed her all the flowers
And the branches sang the chorus
As he climbed the scaley towers
Of a forest tree
While she was somewhere being free

There's a man who's sent a letter
And he's waiting for reply
He has asked her of her travels
Since the day they said goodbye
He writes, "Wish you were beside me
We can make it if we try"
He has seen her at the office
With her name on all his papers
Through the sharing of the profits
He will find it hard to shake her
From his memory
And she's so busy being free

There's a lady in the city
And she thinks she loves them all
There's the one who's thinking of her
There's the one who sometimes calls
There's the one who writes her letters
With his facts and figures scrawl
She has brought them to her senses
They have laughed inside her laughter
Now she rallies her defenses
For she fears that one will ask her
For eternity
And she's so busy being free

There's a man who sends her medals
He is bleeding from the war
There's a jouster and a jester and a man who owns a store
There's a drummer and a dreamer
And you know there may be more
She will love them when she sees them
They will lose her if they follow
And she only means to please them
And her heart is full and hollow
Like a cactus tree
While she's so busy being free
Like a cactus tree
Being free

ISIS

Excellent write-up today on ISIS from David Gordon.

Bought more this morning, will buy even more on dips or on further break-outs.

A

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Tom Paxton

It's a lesson too late for the learning
Made of sand, made of sand
In the wink of an eye my soul is turning
In your hand, in your hand.

Are you going away with no word of farewell,
Will there be not a trace left behind ?
I could have loved you better, didn't mean to be unkind
You know that was the last thing on my mind.

You've got reasons a-plenty for going,
This I know, this I know.
For the weeds have been steadily growing,
Please don't go, please don't go.

Are you going away with no word of farewell,
Will there be not a trace left behind ?
I could have loved you better, didn't mean to be unkind,
You know that was the last thing on my mind.

As I lie in my bed in the mornin'
Without you, without you.
Every song in my breast dies a born-in
Without you, without you.

Are you going away with no word of farewell,
Will there be not a trace left behind ?
I could have loved you better, didn't mean to be unkind
You know that was the last thing on my mind.

A

Monday, May 07, 2007

Road Trip

I took off from Spokane Thursday morning, losing it, just a total breakdown. Drove south through Idaho, Utah, and Nevada. Ilene agreed to fly down and meet me in Las Vegas on Friday night. We spent the next 36 hours alternating between relationship soul-searching and being shown the town by local resident David Gordon, who in person is one of the nicest folks I have met in my 15 years of Internet friendships.

For the time being, I am staying with family in Phoenix.

And while the future's there for anyone to change, still you know it's seems
It would be easier sometimes to change the past
I'm just one or two years and a couple of changes behind you
In my lessons at love's pain and heartache school
Where if you feel too free and you need something to remind you
There's this loneliness springing up from your life
Like a fountain from a pool


A

Thursday, May 03, 2007

By the time I get to Phoenix

By the time I get to Phoenix she'll be rising
She'll find the note I left hangin' on her door
She'll laugh when she reads the part that says I'm leavin'
'Cause I've left that girl so many times before

By the time I make Albuquerque she'll be working
She'll prob'ly stop at lunch and give me a call
But she'll just hear that phone keep on ringin'
Off the wall that's all

By the time I make Oklahoma she'll be sleepin'
She'll turn softly and call my name out loud
And she'll cry just to think I'd really leave her
Tho' time and time I try to tell her so
She just didn't know I would really go.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPLlNSPgLa8

Monday, April 30, 2007

Back to Work

ROY was recommended here at about $5.00 back in November. Today it's breaking out, up just under 10% at $7.25.

Sometimes it's best to just buy these little gems and then tuck them away, looking at them only sporadically, lest you try to trade them, or worse, "Say something stupid, like 'I love you'."

A

Friday, April 27, 2007

If This is Goodbye

My famous last words
Are laying around in tatters
Sounding absurd
Whatever I try
But I love you
And that's all that really matters
If this is goodbye
If this is goodbye

Your bright shining sun
Would light up the way before me
You were the one
Made me feel I could fly
And I love you
Whatever is waiting for me
If this is goodbye
If this is goodbye

Who knows how long we've got
Or what were made out of
Who knows if there's a plan or not
There is our love
I know there is our love

My famous last words
Could never tell the story
Spinning unheard
In the dark of the sky
But I love you
And this is our glory
If this is goodbye
If this is goodbye

A

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Time of No Reply

I never felt magic crazy as this
I never saw moons knew the meaning of the sea
I never held emotion in the palm of my hand
Or felt sweet breezes in the top of a tree
But now you're here
Brighten my northern sky.



Toss me a cigarette, I think there's one in my raincoat
We smoked the last one an hour ago
So I looked at the scenery, she read her magazine
And the moon rose over an open field

Kathy, I'm lost, I said, though I knew she was sleeping
I'm empty and aching and I don't know why


Now the things that I remember seem so distant and so small
Though it hasn’t really been that long a time
What I was seeing wasn’t what was happening at all
Although for a while, our path did seem to climb
But when you see through love’s illusions, there lies the danger
And your perfect lover just looks like a perfect fool
So you go running off in search of a perfect stranger
While the loneliness seems to spring from your life
Like a fountain from a pool



I loved you in the morning, our kisses deep and warm,
your hair upon the pillow like a sleepy golden storm,
yes, many loved before us, I know that we are not new,
in city and in forest they smiled like me and you,
but now it's come to distances and both of us must try,
your eyes are soft with sorrow,
Hey, that's no way to say goodbye.
I'm not looking for another as I wander in my time,
walk me to the corner, our steps will always rhyme
you know my love goes with you as your love stays with me,
it's just the way it changes, like the shoreline and the sea,
but let's not talk of love or chains and things we can't untie,
your eyes are soft with sorrow,
Hey, that's no way to say goodbye.


Summer was gone and the heat died down
And Autumn reached for her golden crown
I looked behind as I heard a sigh
But this was the time of no reply.

The sun went down and the crowd went home
I was left by the roadside all alone
I turned to speak as they went by
But this was the time of no reply.

The time of no reply is calling me to stay
There is no hello and no goodbye
To leave there is no way.

The trees on the hill had nothing to say
They would keep their dreams till another day
So they stood and thought and wondered why
For this was the time of no reply.

Time goes by from year to year
And no one asks why I am standing here
But I have my answer as I look to the sky
This is the time of no reply.

The time of no reply is calling me to stay
There`s no hello and no goodbye
To leave there is no way.

Monday, April 23, 2007

Jim Cramer v. The Market

So Cramer doesn't want to make friends (except maybe Erin Burnett) he just wants to make you money. Not just money, he wants to make you rich. Ok, here's my irregular update on Cramer's effectiveness as a stock picker:

Year-to-Date

S&P 500 = +4.66%

Russell 2000 Index = +5.11%

Jim Cramer's Action Alerts ($400/year service) = +3.87%

Since Inception - January, 2002

S&P 500 = +29.27%

Jim Cramer's Action Alerts = +32.78%

Monday, April 16, 2007

Xyber9 Software

I have been asked about Robert Taylor's offering of Xyber9 software in terms of whether or not I intend to acquire a copy. Xyber9 is the software program that generates the weekly market forecasts that are available at the Taylor Trends web site.

After thinking long and hard about whether or not any market timing tool can be worth $20,000, my conclusion is yes, this is a tool that has the potential to be everything market timers need to trade the indexes. Insofar as I have made and lost many times that amount of money in my years of trying to "beat" the market and insofar as since I've been tracking the Xyber9 forecasts it has been right on the money on about four of every five short-term forecasts, I don't see how any serious market timer can pass on this opportunity.

I don't know if Mr. Taylor can reduce his methodology to a software program that is user friendly and as effective as his forecasts have been these past 10 months, but, if he can, the reward more then outweighs the risk here and I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

A

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Biotechs

In the past week or so, DNDN has popped over 300%. Yesterday, an old favorite AGEN popped 40%, and is up about 100% in the past week. NNVC is up about 60% since it appeared back on our radar screen a few weeks ago.

These are huge moves, all in the same sector.

Maybe time to pay special attention.

A

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Commodity ETF's

Exchange Traded Funds have just about exhausted themselves covering traditional stock market sectors and are now turning toward commodities as a source of new offerings. Examples of commodity funds are SLV (Silver), IAU (Gold) and GSCI (Commodity Indexed Trust).

Do these commodity ETF's offer some unique trading appeal, especially as diversification models as a tool for stock portfolio management?

I would like to find out, but first, I am in the process of assembling a comprehensive list of commodity-based ETF's or similar securities, with a special interest in any that also trade options. An example would be the VIX index, a stock market index that is based on volatility, not stocks, and offers liquid options as a trading vehicle.

If any of my readers are aware of any such commodity-based funds, with special emphasis on the availability of options for leverage, please share them with me under Comments to this thread. I will keep all of you updated on any progress I make in this new direction.

A

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Links

The Market seems to be slowing down in front of the Good Friday holiday, so here are some links of interest to pass some time:

A Uranium stock worth shorting? These analysts think so.

One of the very best trading books I've read in a long, long time: Trend Following.

The best service on the Internet for new stock ideas: Muathe.com.

An unusual and unusually accurate market timing service: Taylor Trends.

All you need to know about Insider Buying: Sally.

A

Friday, March 30, 2007

Friday Update

NNVC is up to $1.18, or about 25% from when I posted this on Wednesday.

As discussed below, FOXH didn't work, not yet at least and because it declined, I was stopped out. It may still pop, but if it does it will do so without me.

Finally, last Friday I posted about The Taylor Effect, a/k/a/ Gravitas here. The QQQQ, which is how I trade Gravitas (with options), is down 1.54% since it's flip to a Sell on March 24th. That signal flips back to a Buy over this weekend.

A

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

FOXH

Back on February 2, 2006, my friend and long time reader of AllAllan, Greg, shared a promotional e-mail he obtained from a $5,000 per year newsletter published by Stansberry & Associates. That email described, but did not name, two "cutting edge" biotechnology companies that it was about to release to it's subscribers. Ilene was able to identify those two companies as ALNY and RNAI. Three weeks later, both stocks were up 25%.

Greg has emailed me the text of another pre-release promotional piece from the same publication. Greg has identified the company and I have confirmed his work, this time the publication, after the close on March 29th, will recommend to its subscribers, FOXH.

A

NNVC

NanoViricides has now become a fully reporting company with the SEC. The significance:

"The effectiveness of its Form 10-SB makes the Company eligible to have its common stock quoted on the NASD Over-The-Counter Bulletin Board upon approval of a recently-submitted application as provided under Exchange Act Rule 15c2-11. NanoViricides cannot predict when its shares of common stock will begin trading on the OTC Bulletin Board but believes it now meets all requirements for doing so."

NNVC's market cap is only $100MM and it's share price is still hovering just under $1.00. Their pipeline is impressive. Absent unforeseen adverse exogenous events, the risk:reward profile of this development stage biotech remains enticing. A move to a legitimate exchange will help both visibility and the stock's eligibility for some funds and institutions to get involved.

I've bought shares as low as 10 cents and more recently as high as 80-90 cents. I think this is one you can buy here, or watch price and volume to start moving up and jump on board then. One big successful trial on any one of their products makes this a $1B company. In other words, achieving a proof of concept milestone catapults market cap and share price.

Make no mistake, this is a bet. But one with a tip sheet.

A

Friday, March 23, 2007

Market Timing

There have been some big moves both up and down in the equity markets since the end of February. Some of the market timing indicators that I watch caught some of these moves, but one indicator caught each and every one of them:


Sell Feb 27--->S&P 500 -3.45%
Buy Mar 6--->S&P 500 +1.5%
Sell Mar 13--->S&P 500 -2.0%
Buy Mar 19--->S&P 500 +1.0%
Buy Mar 21--->S&P 500 +1.7%


Which one?

Robert Taylor and his Xyber9 Gravitational-based discovery for market timing.

This is not the first time I've written up this remarkable methodology. But it keeps coming through with amazingly accurate forecasts. At some point, one has to abandon skepticism, read Taylor's book, Paradigm, and start paying attention.

Not shilling here, just one damn impressed trader.

A