Monday, November 30, 2009

TZA Sell

Kicking out a bit early, but this Sell looks confirmed:

Lost of markets seem to be putting in major terminations, stocks up, gold up, dollar down.  If these trends reverse hard in the next few days and/or weeks, there will be plenty of money to be made.  Don't let the perma-anythings talk you out of getting what's yours.  These trend models will be our best friends forever when the trains leave the station.



Single digits on their way?

TZA system trade update

Hourly model preliminary Buy, needs to stay above 12.97 to be confirmed

Sunday, November 29, 2009

The Fed, according to Zeitgeist

Thank's to Philip Crocco at CB forum for a reminder of this timely examination of evil incarnate:

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Thanksgiving, then and now

It all started in 2003 when as a member of a private stock and arts board (Our Piazza) I posted a Thanksgiving message in the form of the lyrics and a moving, Urge for Going, from Joni Mitchell.  Of all the participants on that board, only my friend David Gordon suspected that there was more to the message then simply a lovely Joni Mitchell song.  Little did I know at that time, how dramatically, completely and irreversibility my life was about to change.

At first it was a faraway romance which lured me 2,500 miles from my cozy Kiawah Island beach home for a 3-year adventure in love and loss along the horrible frozen tundra of Eastern Washington State.

Then like the Jews, I wandered down to the desert Southwest, where some remnants of my Michigan family had found new homes.  Though not 40 years, even if  sometimes it seems that long, especially on this Thanksgiving day, a time when I will be without a single one of them because plans, and lives change and where commitment to tradition seems as fickle as the Lions in their annual ritual so part of Thanksgiving that was so part of my early years in Detroit.

It was those years in Spokane when this Blog was born and the painful, scarring dismantlement of that sojourn is well documented in these pages, black and blue posts and diatribes, circa early 2007.  Don't go there, I never do.

It has been in the meanderings through the desert these past few years where  most of you have found and come to know me.  Like trading, living is a process and it is in that process that I have included you through much of my writing.  Making a living from trading online is not a dream, it's real and it's here.  Hopefully you are coming to understand this essential realization, notwithstanding my forecasting dumps this past year. (As my mia cupla for that, coming soon, a commission-free way to trade the ATR mechanical system.) 

From that 2003 hopeless melancholy of Urge for Going, enters 2009.

For most, it will be year of the Seinfeld reunion show.

For me, it will be serendipity:
the occurrence and development of events by chance in a happy or beneficial way

Story developing......


Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Numbers & Colors


TZA System Stats

Monday, November 23, 2009

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Thunder Road

What a long, strange trip it's been.
                                              - Albert Einstein

Looking back 90 days from now, remember these three charts (and, "No," I do not know or understand why is adding an extra step to view these charts, maybe it will change back on December 1st, the next full moon).

I highly recommend that everyone bookmark and follow the thread on NNVC at iHub.  I've become so close to the company that most of everything I post about NanoViricides, outside of my charts, I must copy and paste from already public information.  iHub posters will always be first to know and first to understand the significance of upcoming developments.  After five minutes of reading posts there, it will become clear which posters are aboard the runaway train.


For a beautiful orchid, whose heart and love, became my own.

Friday, November 20, 2009

TZA System Stats

TZA update

Daily TZA

Key level for Daily BUY Signal is a close above 12.68

Hourly TZA

Added BWT color bars and Elliott Wave count with initial target


Advanced GET aficionados

Daily SPX

The Daily chart illustrates a classic Type II Sell Signal set-up, just waiting for a trigger, which can be a break of the channel lines, of a BWT or ATR Sell signal.

Hourly SPX

The Hourly chart is showing the 5th wave channel up from early November already broken and the beginning of a five wave decline.  We have seen this before, only to have the Hourly pattern turn into a three wave correction and another run-up in the Daily channel. 

One of these days the pattern will change and the much threatened decline will be in full swing.  These are the charts and patterns that will confirm such an opportunity, we're just not quite there yet.



Every so often I promote a comment to its own Blog, as is the case today.

Back from the Influenza conference (Dr. Seymour kindly arranged for me to attend the session). This was short (only 10 mins. per presenter) but great new results on the new FluCide (this will be PR'd on Monday). During the break, Dr. Seymour also took the time to put together a full set of slides that I will shortly share here. Below a couple of them that illustrates results from the original FluCide and the new version (11/18/2009).

To summarize, the control group has a survival rate of around 120hrs in both studies, the Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) 151 hrs in the first study and 192hrs in the latest (not sure where the difference comes from), and Flucide went from 191 hrs (already superior to Tamiflu) to a stunning 333hrs (over 55% improvement). What is not in the slides is that this was tested in over 2000 animals and no side effects where detected. Also, notice that the treatment consisted in 5 doses of FluCide vs 14 doses of Oseltamivir.

Interesting fact that I did not realize before is that the viricides are very stable at room temperature (third slide below). The story is that Dr. Diwan has been keeping viricides in his car glove compartment for a couple of years now 

Besides this, I also had very pleasant and educational conversation with Dr.Diwan who confirmed my confidence in the company.


here is the full set of slides provided by Dr. Seymour:

Note that he also hopes to some produce a youtube video presentation. A new NNVC web site is also expected to be unveiled shortly.


Thursday, November 19, 2009

15-30-60 minute TZA

Criminals among us

The folks at Elliott Wave International have been solid advertisers and partners with this blog for several years now.  I try to respect their intellectual property rights out of a strong sense of loyalty and ethics, but today, I will stretch the concept of fair use a bit with a verbatim quote from today's Elliott Wave Theorist.  I think the nature and importance of what follows sufficiently explains my motivation and hopefully will excuse my momentary departure from an otherwise strict adherence to respecting their proprietary content.

     Matt Taibbi's "Wall Street's Naked Swindle," which ran in the October 15 issue of Rolling Stone magazine, is a terrific expose of the corruption at the highest levels.  Briefly, it appears that, back in March 2008, someone who attended the closed-door meeting among Treasury officials, the Fed and certain anointed big banks immediately bought $1.7 million dollars of put options on Bear Stearns stock, then trading at $63, with strike prices 50 and 60 percent lower and which were due to expire in nine days.  Bear Stearns stock crashed when it became clear that the Fed and the Treasury, contrary to its policy with other, favored banks, would not support the company.  Its stock crashed, and within six days, the put position was worth $270 million, netting the put buyer 159 times his money on "insider information" at the highest level.  A lawyer formerly serving as senior counsel for the SEC expressed dismay that the SEC has somehow been unable to follow the money trail:  "I've seen the SEC send agents overseas in a simple insider-trading case to investigate profits of maybe $2,000."  Taibbi didn't say it, but everyday bureaucratic incompetence can hardly explain the SEC's inability to track down this person after nearly two years, nor the lack of insistence by the Senate Banking Committee, Congress or any other governing body that the trail be followed and the culprit be caught.  Influence of powerful people in government, however, would explain it just fine.  You can read the article at streets naked swindle.


They're off

Needless to say, all intraday time frames are solidly LONG now for TZA.  Next target, the Daily Buy @ 12.68.


Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Off to the races?

These are 240 minute charts of TZA and the RUT on which it is based.  This is the longest intraday period I find useful, as the next useful period is the Daily chart.  With two hours left before the close of trading, I would pay close attention to these two charts triggering new signals going into the close.  In other words, if the 240 TZA flips LONG (>11.80) and/or the RUT flips SHORT (<593.63), markets may be very well be off to the races on the downside.


NNVC - heads up

Wednesday and Thursday hold the potential to be news days for NNVC, as both Dr. Diwan (President) and Dr. Seymour (CEO) will be featured speakers at separate conferences.  There is always a chance that something one or both of them have to say about ongoing research will ring the bell in a market moving way.


3.30 p.m. – 5.00 p.m.
Session IV – The Intersection of Nanotechnology and Biology
Session Chair and Moderator – Jim Hurd, Director, NanoScience Exchange, San Francisco, CA
Prof. Brij Moudgil, Distinguished Professor and Alumni Professor of Materials Science and Engineering,
and Director of Particle Engineering Research Center, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
Dr. Anil Diwan, President and Chairman, NanoViricides, Inc., West haven, CT,
"Nanoviricides - Novel Antiviral Agents Against HIV, Influenza, and Many Other

• What is a nanoviricide : "Find-Encapsulate-Destroy" antiviral strategy
• FluCide(tm) - Pan-Influenza nanoviricide against pandemic, epidemic influenzas, bird flu,
high path viruses
• HivCide(tm) - Anti-HIV nanoviricide was superior to oral HAART cocktail therapy in
animal models
• Broad-spectrum nanoviricides - A low cost approach against Neglected Tropical Diseases


NanoViricides, Inc. to Present Anti-Influenza Drug Candidate FluCide Studies at the Influenza Congress 2009

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company"), announced today that the Company’s CEO, Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, has been invited to participate in a panel discussion at the Influenza Congress USA 2009, in Washington DC on November 19th ( The discussion will center on the “Evolving Role of Anti-Virals” in influenza treatment.

Dr. Seymour will review the Company’s recent in vivo studies against influenza. The success of these studies has led the Company to consolidate its anti-influenza drug programs into a single, pan-influenza drug, “FluCide™”. This single drug is expected to be highly effective against all forms of influenza A, including the recent “swine flu” 2009/CA/H1N1 strain, seasonal flu strains, as well as H5N1 bird flu strains feared to be capable of creating a devastating pandemic, and other highly pathogenic strains on the horizon.

A “pan-influenza” drug is widely sought in order to enable treating infections from novel influenza viruses. It is well known that pandemics can be caused by novel strains of influenza. Fortunately the current “swine flu” H1N1/2009 pandemic is now believed to cause fatality rates comparable to seasonal influenzas. However, influenza viruses are known to change rapidly. New influenza viruses are often generated by mixing of genetic material from existing influenza viruses, known as “reassortments”. Such changes can lead to a novel virus that is capable of causing a wide-spread pandemic accompanied by a high fatality rate. In addition, mutations are known to have led to influenza strains resistant to existing anti-influenza drugs. The Company believes that FluCide is designed to minimize the possibility of resistant mutations.


120 minute TZA

This is the 120 minute TZA chart with a fresh ATR Buy Signal
Key Level = 11.62

TZA system trade update

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Parallax view

Below the Russell, TZA and SPX from 13, 30 and 13 minute views, respectively:

Clarification of trend


15 minute is very close and waiting on the sixty

Monday, November 16, 2009


Below is the Weekly chart of the Russell 2000 Index.

Note the Wave 5 Sell Signal. Note the FBS Sell Signal. Note the ATR Sell Signal. Note the target drop, 50% from current levels. Note that we are trading the 3X leveraged bear etf of this index, TZA. Note that unless this index reverses and triggers a Weekly Buy Signal, the main trend is down and TZA-friendly.

Note that we have been blown out of the water time and time again shorting this market. Note that it takes balls of steel to keep on shorting. Note that the definition of insanity to to repeat the same behavior time after time with the expectation of a different outcome. Note that Freud found a sexual context underlying all human behavior. Note that I have just injected sex into my analysis and it actually made sense.........until I pointed it out to you. Note that I am going to bed now.

Nighty night.


TZA charts

11.60 is the 60 minute bar Buy threshold

KMKCF - update

KMKCF was featured back in October at about 1.42. As per a couple requests, here is an updated Weekly chart on KMKCF:

My Advanced GET software is targeting 3.50, suggesting nothing to do here but sit back and enjoy the ride.


An unwritten life

Points to whoever knows the meaning and source of today's subject. We shall borrow from it to describe the entry of the following TZA Sell Signal:

System remains short TZA, awaiting next signal.


Friday, November 13, 2009

Intermediate term triggers

A couple Intermediate term charts and Buy levels for TZA

240 minute


Going into the home stretch

Preliminary Buy on the 60, looks like the 15 was a good heads-up on this one

Pretty cool, eh?

TZA update

The 60 minute fell through Short trigger level of 12.70 and looks to be staying under, so confirmation seems likely.

I am mobile today, with limited bandwidth (but on my Mac), so timeliness of updates may suffer.


Thursday, November 12, 2009

Trading review

After a brief shaky start, our new system is acting as designed and expected, catching tradable swings in an underlying stock.

Here is tonight's
TZA chart

TZA Trades

Same parameters applied to SPX



The look of trois

Keeping score

All in

Sorry for the delay, but if you look to the right, the 240 minute chart, you'll understand why I have been quite busy the past few minutes.