Tuesday, February 21, 2012

NVIV - Invivo Therapeutics

This is the kind of biotech that presents a compelling opportunity:

(1) Small market cap = $110M (about $2.15 per share);

(2) Product addresses market where there is no other functional treatments: Spinal Cord Injuries (SCI);
"Currently, there are no treatment options for SCI patients to successfully restore function following a spinal cord injury. Existing treatments consist of a collection of approaches that only focus on symptoms of SCI, such as decompression and mechanical stabilization of the spinal cord, rather than on the underlying pathology."
Company Web Site

(3) Product has been tested on animals and it works:
"InVivo has demonstrated the proof of concept for its SCI therapy in primate and rodent animal models. The company is the first in history to successfully demonstrate functional improvement in a paralyzed non-human primate and believes this model is the best surrogate for how the products will work in humans."
Company Web Site
(4) Huge market for product:
"The financial impact of spinal cord injury (SCI) is staggering, estimated to be between $244,000 and $829,000 in the first year alone and over a lifetime this could add up to between $1- $4 million. The annual global market for SCI is estimated at $10 billion. There are currently no successful treatment options for SCI patients"
- Tom Bishop, BI Research

(5) Outstanding Management
Frank Reynolds, CEO

"Mr. Reynolds is a co-inventor on four of InVivo’s patents and he is co-author and winner of the “2011 David F. Apple Award” given by the American Spinal Injury Association to the top published paper in the world for SCI research. He is the former Director of Global Business Development at Siemens Corporation where he had global responsibility for business development."
Bob Langer:

"Robert S. Langer is the David H. Koch Institute Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (being an Institute Professor is the highest honor that can be awarded to a faculty member). Dr. Langer has written over 1,100 articles. He also has approximately 760 issued and pending patents worldwide. Dr. Langer’s patents have been licensed or sublicensed to over 220 pharmaceutical, chemical, biotechnology and medical device companies.

"He served as a member of the United States Food and Drug Administration’s SCIENCE Board, the FDA’s highest advisory board, from 1995 — 2002 and as its Chairman from 1999- 2002."

Company Web Site

(6) Take-out candidate:
"Starting with our DCF model, we’ve increased sales by 20% to account for “overwhelming” promotion of a massive sales force like J&J (JNJ) or Medtronic (MDT). We’ve also removed future dilution and lowered the discount rate to account for a much lower cost of capital. Finally, we’ve reduce the S&GA expense figuring that a larger company will use representatives already in the field promoting products for spinal surgery, biomaterials, tissue engineering, or neurology. We arrive at a “take-out” value of $525 million, or $7.25 per share. We believe this is a price that a company like J&J or Medtronic could easily pay and still see accretion."
- Zacks

(7) Trend = LONG

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Just Charts

NASDAQ Monthly


SLV Weekly

GLD Daily

AAPL Weekly

NVIV Daily - InVivo Therapeutics

"We are initiating coverage an establishing a near-term target of $4.50 per share based on DCF (rounding up slightly from the DCF). However, with the financing risk out of the way, perhaps later this year, and clear momentum on the clinical front, we think InVivo can trade as high as $7 per share on speculation of a take-out."
- Zacks Investment Research

Thursday, February 16, 2012

NNVC - Update

Below is the NNVC 240 minute chart. The Elliott Wave pattern is very clean and the target for this move is $1.55. The potential for a Wave 4 retracement is to $0.80 and the NNVC Trend Model reverses short at $0.74. Thus the risk is about $0.20 for gain that projects to $1.55:

I don't like to trade out of NNVC because of news-factor. This is the kind of stock and company where a press release can come any day that would result in an overnight doubling of market cap. Still, if you are a believer in technical analysis, this is ample reason to be long the stock in here.

But there is more. Double the time frame to 480 minutes and you get the following chart:

It is very unusual for me to get the exact same wave count and the exact same price target when I double the time frame. This is impressive.

But there is more. Take a look at the 720 minute chart:

In all the years I have been doing this, I have never seen such consistency in EW structure and Fibonacci price targets when I increase the time frame three fold. That means, since it has never happened before, I don't really have a perspective on what it means. But my guess is that $1.55 is a solid a target and thus the risk:reward equation is a whole lot better then the simple 3:1 the first chart suggests.

My take on the fundamentals is written over on the right. It was written a long time ago. Nothing has changed. I own this stock....you bet I do.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Allan's Market Commentary

For those readers of AllAllan who are not subscribers to AllanTrends, below is my Market Close Update that was sent out today, February 15, 2012 after the close of trading. I'm posting it to illustrate the kind of content that is part of the subscription service as well as to give all the best trade of the year, which is not NNVC (although it might be) but is a call on a substantial increase in volatility, either just around the corner, or, it may have already begun.

New Daily Signals


Allan’s Market Commentary

The recent reversals LONG by the VXX Trading Models are all profitable, but it hasn’t been without a fight. There are a number of fundamental factors that have me once again on the edge of my seat, so I am comfortable holding VXX, TVIX and/or VXX calls, all LONG. Though my confidence in these positions is mechanical, objective and disciplined by the very nature and tenants of trend following, the fundamental backdrop is subjective, scarier and emotional.

(1) The Mideast. The rhetoric here is reminiscent of the times before major conflicts have erupted in the past, except now all sides possess weapons of mass destruction. This rhetoric might be subterfuge for a secret understanding among the parties to limit the animosities to inflammatory accusations, but if so, it is a dangerous game to be playing with irrational geopolitical forces. If there is no such tacit understanding, it is just a matter of time before all hell breaks loose.

(2) European Private Sector. One bank over there goes under and the global financial network begins playing dominos, or worse yet, “last bank/government/continent left standing.” It will begin while we in North America are asleep. The ensuing trend in our equity markets will be a whopper. We will make a fortune, at least on paper, as withdrawing from our accounts may become problematic.

(3) Black Swan Event. The above two situations are so ominous that there is a chance of some Black Swan event coming out of nowhere that triggers all of the above.

In light of precariousness of everything right now, I don’t see how you can’t have some hedge against the worst case basis: A six-month call on VXX at a minimum. As Nike promotes, “Just Do It.”

VXX Hourly


[omitted, subscribers only]

Feb 15, 2012

TAGS: Black Swan, Market Close, New Daily Signals, VXX

NNVC update

Tuesday, February 14, 2012


DETROIT -- The Detroit Red Wings have done something that no other NHL team had done before.

By defeating the Dallas Stars 3-1 on Tuesday night at Joe Louis Arena, they became the first team in League history to win 21 straight games on home ice – and by the looks of things, they might keep winning here for a while.

So reads the lead story tonight from nhl.com.

I watched the game in its entirety, wearing my official NHL Pavel Datsyuk jersey. I toasted my boys with a beer and talked to them throughout the game through my Sony HD television. I smiled and cheered and paced. I warned them against taking stupid penalties and urged them to clear the puck, go to the net, get back on defense and shoot, shoot, shoot.

At the end of the game, Bud Lynch, the 90-something announcer for the Red Wings, a man I used to stay up at night and listen to call the play-by-play as far back as 1960 (maybe even the late 50's, I can't remember), called out the names of tonight three stars:

3rd Star: Darren Helm

2nd Star: Henrik Zetterberg

First Star:

Valentines Day, Part II

CNBC Update:

Instead of CNBC, I am watching The Don Patrick Show (Fox Sports) where today, Don Patrick is interviewing two Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Models.

"I don't recognize you with clothes on," says Patrick.

The girls giggle.

One is from Connecticut, the other from South Africa. They both played sports. Patrick pulls out the swimsuit issue.

"Why is your top off? he asks Connecticut.

"I was hot," she answers.

A photo of South Africa fills the screen. She is almost naked and holding the leash of a cougar, or tiger, or something with four legs. I never did get a good look at it.

Connecticut is married. South Africa is looking for a boyfriend.

Cramer is recommending stocks on CNBC....I guess.

"We're normal," says one of them to a question that I missed.

"Have you ever been with a sportscaster?" asks Patrick, "Say one who has handed out the Super Bowl trophy?"

VXX just misses going LONG, or more accurately, I wasn't paying attention to VXX.

Their smiles fill the screen, they are beautiful barbie dolls with sweet personalities, young, happy, gifted specimens women. Good luck and take care.

Happy Valentines Day......finally.


Monday, February 13, 2012

Valentines Day - 2012

I grumbled about the holidays so I may as well touch upon Valentines Day while its nigh. What better describes this day, (1) the obnoxious commercialization epitomized by tractor-trailers full of roses in the parking lots of grocery stores, or (2) the asinine competition among grown-up men to see who can send the most flowers to fairest of them all?

Or, maybe its that days like this dangle in our memories and no amount of chocolate or flowers can fill the void where lovers once stood. Looking out into the evening, orange skies dance upon water that flickers into the horizon. Names and faces appear, come together, then fade. Years that live somewhere, now silent and alone.

I once had a girl, or should I say, she once had me.


Saturday, February 04, 2012

Aspen, Colorado

I've never been to Aspen, Colorado. But sometimes at night I lay in bed and think that in the morning, I'm moving to Aspen. What wonders might be awaiting me in this new, strange place? Who might be there, waiting her entire life for this stranger to show up out of no where, who on a whim decided he should move to Aspen, Colorado. They say it's cold there in the winter and almost perfect in the summer. That would fit well with the rest of my life, almost perfect.

How warm the fires would seem on those cold February nights. Snow falling quiet, white, pristine, while we stare into the the flame and tell each other the stories of our lives. When the time is right we retreat into the bedroom and snuggle closely under warm, wool blankets and wonder aloud how life could be any more splendid. Yes, I will move to Aspen in the morning.

The fire is dying
my lamp is growing dim
shades of night are lifting
morning light steals across my window pane
where webs of snow are drifting.

If I could only have you near
to breathe a sigh or two
I would be happy
just to hold the hands I love
on this winters night with you.