Friday, November 27, 2009

SPX five-minute chart


Randolph said...

Thank you for maintaining this superb blog. I've followed your plays quite profitably. This is a tricky point in the market...could be down really hard towards the end of next week. Issue: hold short through the weekend?
Many thanks and best...

Allan said...


Issue: hold short through the weekend?

How can you not?


Sean said...

Allan, pardon my denseness, but r u waiting for TZA @12.45 to buy?



Allan said...


The mechanical TZA system doesn't trigger LONG until 12.90 on the hourly charts, unlikely to trigger today, so officially, system remains on SELL (short tza) over the weekend.

Mechanical trading is a complement, not a substitute, for my other trading models. One of which, the EW model, is very bearish for the immediate future.


Holly20 said...

Thanks so much, Allan. This is really helping me understand the timing and targets on my TZA positions.

Allan said...


Dive at the close brought TZA right up to it's LONG trigger level. Monday will be interesting, to say the least.


Holly20 said...

Yes, happy to have purchased more. I'm relatively new to trading and your posts give me more confidence to follow my own analysis. I am very grateful that you are willing to take the time to share.

Anonymous said...

Could this be the trigger? Monday will be interesting.

Anonymous said...

a) The market has been traveling on fumes.

b) The market has been manipulated. The fact that the Fed won't allow itself to be audited is evidence of this manipulation.

c) GoldmanSachs has been a major player in this game, and their operatives are spread throught the government as well as the Fed.

d) The Vice Chairman of GS operations in Hong Kong just dumped the max allowable 10% of his GS stock, worth $12 million, in just two days, that's not a very smooth exit. The Vice Chairman of GS ops in London sold $26.8 million of his personal holdings in GS stock last week, also an abrupt exit.

Conclusion: Even without resorting to a conspiracy theory, GS is not known for their conflict of interest standards. Isn't it possible these fellers heard a little something about what is about to happen? Seems a trifle bit coincidental that the dollar rallied, Dubai defaulted, and even gold crashed just when they got out. Maybe they should go into cattle futures, they have Hillary's timing.

I wouldn't want to be shot the dollar or long stocks right now.

Anonymous said...

TZA is going to 5. Makes a great short right here.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Apocalypto--ffwd 05:30, fear is a sickness----the market trader must master fear and loathing, cf. Genesis 4:7

great events in the markets are now afoot

Anonymous said...


Its been my experience that few forecasters rile up traders like this guy for whatever reason.

I find gurus can be right but the timing is tricky. Remember the phrase 'weapons of mass destruction' regarding derivatives?

Ultimately, I think its about traders forgetting to 'trade the method, not the forecast'.


T said...

Thanks for that article,Lucky.
It sums up what Ive been experiencing with Prechter's EWI.As a new subscriber to it, since these last 6 months,I love elliott wave theory,and counting waves does work,but I grow ever more suspicious of EWI FORECASTS being wrong each of these months.
Their record long term,in the last 20 years...dead last...oh kayee...but 'short term' as in the last 6 months? well..... looks like they've gotten that wrong as well... Forecasting the onset of Doom at every swing top since august 3rd.
One of these tops,yes,maybe now the recent one,or maybe the next one to come,will lead to a real correction,which would be healthy for this phony market to establish some semblance of realness from time to time.

But for my money,and patience,I'm ready to cancel my EWI subscription at this point.
Whats the value of it? I know enough to be on the lookout for the 'beginning of the dreaded wave 3 collapse'...I also have seen enough to anticipate that EWI forecast as a 'Timer' might continue to be "early" ...until they finally 'prove correct'.
Its not helping me much,I guess,is my point.
Time to cancel EWI.
But not to stop counting elliott waves....that technical art is very good.

Anonymous said...

a) GS insiders dumping their stock

b) FDIC is 8 billion in the hole and they have pushed 8000 regional and local backs to the edge of the cliff trying to save the big banks.

c) Speaking of the cliff the commercial real estate problem, to which regional banks are heavily exposed, is just starting to ramp up.

d) The German central bank says banks have only admitted half of their losses so far. The first half of that admission bankrupt all of the major banks of the world.

e) A larger wave of foreclosures than the sub prime problem hits this year because of option ARMs.

e) The geniuses who bought in on Keynes idea that the government could buy their way out of a depression never asked what happens if every government in the world engages in deficit spending AT THE SAME TIME? You run out of investors to finance it. Bill Bonner (ie: Wyle Coyette level super genius) recently posted that world government debt will need one trillion worth of financing each month in the coming year. Unfortunately, there isn't that much money in the world. Every dollar in China would only finance that for 67 days. The result is a huge increase in interest rates and a sickening crash in world markets. Nobody cares about Dubai except the companies affected. Everyone does care when soverign nations cannot raise financing for their debt, and that trend is beginning to accelerate.

f) Oh, yeah, now that we are on the subject of China, did I mention that they are going to save the world? Yeah, they managed "8.9% GDP" despite the fact that 25% of the world's shipping containers were idle, and their energy consumption fell almost 6%. They produced 600 million tons of steel and only sold 500 tons of it. Their solution? Goose capacity! Next year, they will produce 668 million tons. Their problem is over capacity during a global depression so they spent over a half trillion INCREASING capacity. They have an economy based on selling us stuff and we have no jobs or credit to buy their stuff. They couldn't create any domestic demand during the boom years, but rest assured, the financial press says they are going to create domestic demand during the bust years. We know our country is lying to us, could it be our trading partners are stretching the truth?

g) Lending to small businesses, the engine of our economy which creates jobs, is at a standstill.

h) The Case Shiller Index shows a potential 43% drop in housing prices on the horizon based on available inventory and projected sales. Unfortunately, this index does not include the vast "shadow inventory", houses not forclosed on because the banks know they can't sell them, maintain them, and they don't want to write the losses off and spoil their "quarterly profits." Case Shiller doesn't know squat about the job situation or option ARMS. It doesn't take into account that roughly 23% of our nations homes are underwater and that most of them are in non recourse states where the homeowners can just walk away with no legal repercussions. In the 30s, housing fell 80%, and there is nothing to prevent it from doing so today.

i) Yes, the Yen has continued to rise against the dollar but the dollar show signs of a titanic rally. Leave it to the financial press to fail to notice but the Euro, by far the greatest part of the dollar index, has failed to make any gains at all against the dollar for a month. Additionally, the Aussie dollar is showing sighs of topping. Most persuasive, the number of US dollar shorts is tremendous, and that many shorts would creating a cascading effect if they need to cover. Friday's trading shows that nothing, even gold, can stand in the way of a dollar rally.

j) All the indexes have been correlated, including the foreign markets, and right now they all point down.

Perhaps the Mayan calendar was off by a couple of years because 2010 is shaping up to be one of the most memorable years in American history.


Anonymous said...


I don't mean to be critical but Prechter called the top in 2007 and called the rally almost to the day in March 2009. That is one hell of a record. If he scarred you out of the market early in May or August, that is not his fault. All he can tell you is the ice is rotten and don't skate on it.

I know you can make a lot of money flirting with disaster but that is not a game plan for the long haul. If you are upset that the call didn't comport with the result, then why didn't you reenter the market and follow the price? I went short at each of these calls, lost some money and jumped back in to battle back. It wasn't my best work, but that's all you can do if you call yourself a trader. Never blame someone else. It is your call.

My advice is to cancel your subscription to EW and find something else, because seeking someone to lead you by the hand won't work.

Forecasters can't predict the future, they can just arm you with information to interpret events, you have to do the work yourself too. The forecasters tell you the danger, you have to follow the price yourself.

ROB G said...


if we are headed for a collapse do you think gold and silver are a good hedge, or do you think nothing will matter?

rob g..

Anonymous said...


Stocks are breaking down now. Gold will probably follow based on its current parabolic price action. The safety trade may allow it to resist some of the fall, but I wouldn't bet on it, especially in light of Friday's market action.

Why guess about gold when you have stocks about to crack and the dollar rallying? Go where the money is, dollar long and short equities. There's plenty of time for gold to plummet and then return to the fore when deflation has run its course. That won't be for a long time.


Anonymous said...


Oops, that's not investment advice, in a legal sense. That's what I'm doing. Good luck


Anonymous said...

As far as I'm concerned Allan's trades , and the horses they rode in on, can go F**k themselves.


Anonymous said...


I have invested in NNVC. I know you can not predict, but do you think NNVC will stay the course? I think it is a very sound stock to own now....
thank you

Anonymous said...


Can I confirm that TZA doesn't flip to a BUY until it closes, not just surpasses within one period, but closes on the 60 min above 12.90?

Does your system chart the first 60 min bar as 630-7, or 630-730 (and thus the last bar is just a 30 min)