Friday, November 06, 2009

GS update

Back on October 15 I posted these charts of GS, suggesting a break of 180 would turn GS down and maybe the market with it. Let's see how it turned out.



Daily


Break down through regression channel and triggering of Sell Signals


240 minute

Pending Mechanical Sell Signal


Weekly

Bigger picture break-down and Sell Signal


A

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Target?

Anonymous said...

Allan,

This blog is my best discovery since I read "TREND FOLLOWING" by COVEL.

Most traders I know and read about are so caught up in market direction.
Where will it go next????

Worse, many dare to be proactive and stand in front of speeding trains.

Worse yet, many get emotionally attached to particular outcome.

However, everytime I visit this blog it reminds me how its not all that important !!!

e.g.
If SEC placed a limit on your trading allowing you to only trade GS, I suspect you'd still make a good living trading!!!! lol

Lucky Luciano

Anonymous said...

This site has been my personal finanical ruin. I should've looked at the 5 min charts. My bad

Anonymous said...

Allan seems to be good at coming up with the 'don't forget to look at' when his previous predictions do not come to pass. Months of all hell is going to break loose and watch out below, but leave it to Allan to do the one two side step. LOL Only one worse is the folks at BAM model.

Anonymous said...

I previously stated on this blog that the banks were trying to goose their numbers to offer new shares and sucker the public. I was wrong because that wasn't enough to dig them out of the hole they have dug. Today the light bulb went on. I would like to offer a theory about what is really happening in the markets right now.

The divergence we are currently seeing between downward volume and upward volume is a big deal. Every time we surge upward it is on low volume, whereas downward volume is tremendous. At the same time, there is a huge amount of inside and big money selling. My conclusion is that the banks and big money interests know the rally is over and they are using age old techniques to sell their line of stocks. They are trying to sucker in the retail investor and realize the tremendous gains they accrued during the rally without tanking the market.

This is textbook market manipulation from the early 20th century stock pools. When a number of traders have a large line to get rid of, they have to act in concert or they individually will drive the price of the stock down as they sell.

The old game is you wait for a low volume day and you buy the leaders and your stock, driving up the whole market. When you plateau, you sell what you can until you reach your target price, then you buy back at lower prices at the end of the session. Rinse and repeat until you have sold your whole line for as much as you can.

Going back to March, the big money went pedal to the metal during the rally using our TARP money, Fed buyouts of bad debt, and Fed interest on overnight reserves offered on money they got from, you guessed it, the Fed., at practically zero interest rates. Then they all looked at each other and said, this can't go on forever, how do we get rid of all this stock? Paging through Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, the recipients of our largess decided to act in unison as a modern day stock pool to screw the taxpayers who bailed them out.

Waiting for the top, they started to goose the market on low volume and then sell their holdings. Do this enough times, and you sell your whole line before the eventual collapse. This is an old story. I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory, but that is exactly how the secret cabal known as the Fed works, and is how they have worked from day one. They are manipulating the market on a global scale and that is why they won't allow themselves to be audited.

I went short too early and had to battle back, but I smell the end coming and I'm staying short now. Reread the classics. It's the same darn thing on a larger scale.

Smiddywesson

Anonymous said...

Very good analysis Smiddy.
and good points too,Lucky.
well said....
.................................. On the GS charts,that indicator seems to be saying
...on the weekly chart, = "Folks,I think its time to end the party,I'm going down"

on the daily = 'I've been going down a good chunk for you and now I wanna go up'

on the 4 hour = 'Ive Been going up for you,jackass,enough already and I'm getting tired'

the weekly = "please fasten your seat belts,this is just the beginning"

daily "OMFG"
4 hour "OMFG"

chorus..."wait,wheres warren buffet,we need him again."

daily = "hold on,I think I can manage a few more reps...keep rowing"
4 hour = "not me,bro,I'm gettin tired"

daily = "cant anyone help me...?"

chorus = "wait,look up in the sky...here comes a helicopter"

Anonymous said...

"Market manipulation was commonplace in the stock market at the turn of the century, and there were no strong regulations to prohibit this kind of trading. It was not considered illegal as long as no false or misleading statements were issued. But it was illegal to have wash sales, in which stock would be bought and sold only by the insiders in the pool. This would churn the stock into life, and simply drive the stock price up as it passed back and forth throught the same pair of hands."

Jesse Livermore, World's Greatest Stock Trader, by Richard Smitten (Who is, by the way, a genius - Smiddywesson)

Oh yeah? What happens if the banks of the world collude to drive up the market so they can dump the holdings on their trading desks and cash out of the rally at top prices? Does this sound like shooting fish in a barrel when you have super high speed computer trading going on every day? Does anyone really think the federal government has the acumen to catch these guys doing something on a super fast micro scale which is in reality, just the same old scam the stock jobbers have always done to screw the public? You don't need an MBA, all you have to do is wait until a low volume day and call down to the High Frequency Quant desk and tell them you want them to buy and sell Google, Mr. Softee, and whatever is the stock du jour, a thousand times during the next ten minutes and then you have the hollow rally to offload all the wonderful profits you accrued compliments of the U. S. of A. This is a pool scam. We have 100 years of evidence to identify it for what it is, but we just can't shed ourselves of the details of our modern lives to see what is really going on. You have to think for yourselves or you are going to die poor.

Smiddywesson

Anonymous said...

I love this website, and I love you guys, even the flamers who tell us to burn in Hell because the greatest bull market in history is about to explode. LOL! Then again, if everyone marched in sync, there would be nothing to learn here.

I see a desperate market playing games while they offload the spoils. I'm short, but then again, I'm crazy. Keep an open mind. I know I sound like a bear (and I am), but they could possibly pull it off and the plunge won't happen until after the new year. On the other hand, the Easter Bunny might appear and drop a golden egg while he humps my leg. I doubt it.

Allan has said, time and again, to wait for confirmation. I am trying, but damn, it is one exciting market.

This is the greatest pass time/profession/gladitorial event in the history of the world!

Smiddywesson

Anonymous said...

To Allan and all above,

Anytime I pass judgement on the stock market, I AM WRONG!

Warmest regards from NYC, joe

Anonymous said...

I'm crazy too,or getting there ,and heres why. I spend 10 hours a day studying everything.

Elliott wave advisors are saying the market is going down hard and soon. I believe in elliott wave theory and see that wave counting works.
...................................
Then,I read Marc Faber,who I like as well, and gloom and doomer that he is , now says buy stocks,the market bubble will continue.
...................................

I like Allan's charts and I want to go short.
...................................
I like my newsletters that say buy these gold miners,and oil companies, etc
so I'm ready to buy them,since they plunged...but I'm counting elliott waves and they look like theres one more leg down in the short term.... or else the big wave 3 down Allan is looking for... so I hesitate to buy anything.
.................................
Its becoming analysis paralysis.
.................................
Like what smiddy and others are saying, I am convinced the markets are totally rigged .and its odd to think that a sane rational person would even think to risk ones life savings in this casino gambling game. You would never go to Vegas and risk it there,why do it on wall st.
Are we as clever as the government at figureing out this phony rigged game. Can you predict the next trick the government will pull out of its sleeve? to keep the phony market propped up.

I have a list of over 100 great companies ,all good fundamentals, well run,free of debt,plenty of cash, etc.... and I'm just waiting for the right time to reinvest.
like a real correction to the July bottom.
or maybe waiting until a stock corrects to its 200 EMA before buying.
Trying to maintain some wise frame of mind,and it may take months of waiting to find the right moment to invest in.

People are anxious and impatient to make money in the markets.
like a mouse that sees the cheese in the trap....remember its the second mouse that gets the cheese.
..................................
Maybe a good idea to just find a few stocks or indexes to just day trade ,counting waves,and scalping for the weekly paycheck.


long term investing is a nice old idea...but maybe obsolete in this rigged game today.

Anonymous said...

Hello Allan, any Chats with Dr. Seymour of NNVC lately? Seems we are due for some positive updates at NNVC.Gary

Allan said...

Re: analysis paralysis

Find a reliable trend following technique and stick to it. If reading all that other stuff effects your ability to trade your trend following system, then stop reading and looking at all that other stuff, including this blog. It is much easier to identify what the market is doing now, then what it will be doing tomorrow. Trade the now, not the what if.

Anonymous said...

Smiddywesson:

What is your real name? Some of us at Goldman would like to talk about bringing you on P/T as a consultant.

Phil in NYC.

Hamilton said...

My name is Hamilton Von Bahr, VI.

I'm a major international investor and first started following this blog about 8 months ago on a recommendation from a (Mayflower Society) friend who has been reading it for years.

Have I made a lot of money reading it? Yes several million, but I already had money.

I enjoy Allan's unique take on the markets with well coloured humour thrown in for good measure.

It is a true joy to read this blog and while Allan has had some absolutely lousy picks and some of his charts must have been done while he was on LSD, overall he seems to do well, and as I said overall I have been profitable.

Do I like it when I lose money on one of his picks? No.

Do I like it when he talks about Ice Hockey? No. Curling is the ice sport of the upper crust.

But overall his wit, market savvy, ability to adapt to new situations and his wisdom are without parallel.

While you readers do not fall into my class you should be aware from a true investing professional, with inherited money (I've never worked a day in my life), that you are getting a lot from this man and his efforts.


HVBVI

Anonymous said...

Well done. Sounds as real as can be. but even the most crusty of the upper crust would'nt have a name that contrived, and to think that there were 5 before you....
p.s. Ive hardly worked a day in my life either. you dont need to be rich to do that.

Anonymous said...

LOL, I don't work for a living either, I'm employed by the government.

Smiddy

Anonymous said...

HVBVI,

Repeat this three times:

"I am Elmer J. Fudd,I own a mansion und a yacht."

- A typical untouchable

Anonymous said...

GC CEO to Joe American...go eat cake!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-ceo-defends-bonuses-as-sign-of-recovery-report-2009-11-08

- cramar

Anonymous said...

Cramer,
Don't fall for all you read
"The average 2009 pay for the bank's 30,000 staff is expected at GBP420,000, the newspaper added. "
is total bullshit. 42000 maybe but even that doubtful.