Thursday, November 26, 2009

Thanksgiving, then and now

It all started in 2003 when as a member of a private stock and arts board (Our Piazza) I posted a Thanksgiving message in the form of the lyrics and a moving, Urge for Going, from Joni Mitchell.  Of all the participants on that board, only my friend David Gordon suspected that there was more to the message then simply a lovely Joni Mitchell song.  Little did I know at that time, how dramatically, completely and irreversibility my life was about to change.

At first it was a faraway romance which lured me 2,500 miles from my cozy Kiawah Island beach home for a 3-year adventure in love and loss along the horrible frozen tundra of Eastern Washington State.

Then like the Jews, I wandered down to the desert Southwest, where some remnants of my Michigan family had found new homes.  Though not 40 years, even if  sometimes it seems that long, especially on this Thanksgiving day, a time when I will be without a single one of them because plans, and lives change and where commitment to tradition seems as fickle as the Lions in their annual ritual so part of Thanksgiving that was so part of my early years in Detroit.

It was those years in Spokane when this Blog was born and the painful, scarring dismantlement of that sojourn is well documented in these pages, black and blue posts and diatribes, circa early 2007.  Don't go there, I never do.

It has been in the meanderings through the desert these past few years where  most of you have found and come to know me.  Like trading, living is a process and it is in that process that I have included you through much of my writing.  Making a living from trading online is not a dream, it's real and it's here.  Hopefully you are coming to understand this essential realization, notwithstanding my forecasting dumps this past year. (As my mia cupla for that, coming soon, a commission-free way to trade the ATR mechanical system.) 



From that 2003 hopeless melancholy of Urge for Going, enters 2009.

For most, it will be year of the Seinfeld reunion show.

For me, it will be serendipity:
the occurrence and development of events by chance in a happy or beneficial way

Story developing......


A
 


21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Allan, just wanted to give thanks for all the sharing you have done. I've been here from the start and glad to hear life is good again. Hope you have the time to keep it going because I still have along way to go. Thanks for keeping it real!!!

sound.c

T said...

I'm a newcomer to your blog,A,and I hope you realize what a great service it is that you give us in these pages.not just the trading but the whole humanness.
Its very easy for a trader to get completely engulfed in the analysis of data and charts,all day long,all night long, and forget that one is a human being and needs to live life.
Your blog posts seem to have an uncanny knack for bringing in that human dimension just when I need it. All part of whats so valuable that makes me come here several times a day.
I wish you a happy holiday .
T

Anonymous said...

Happy Thanksgiving, Allan! I appreciate all you share via this blog.
How 'bout them Thrashers!
Doug in ATL

PS. Here's to a breakout year for NNVC in 2010

Anonymous said...

Allan, read your post everyday and I appreciate and enjoy your insight and comments. Hope you have reason to give thanks today. Happy Thanksgiving. -John

Anonymous said...

Thanks for sharing so much. Allan.

What a day in the markets!
AMBUSHED !
Ice has been broken : Euro back below $1.500 !
(see: http://www.greenener...?showtopic=8307 )

Chart : http://img28.imagesh.../8392/001fw.png

This could be a very important reversal.
Yesterday's rally in Euro, drop in the Dollar may have been a "false break", engineered by the US govt, to permit an ambush on two days that are normally quiet.

FTSE is down big: -5203.16 Change: -161.65 / Percent Change: -3.01%
A big move, indeed.
Next, look for stops to get him on Gold and other commodities.
-DrBubb

Anonymous said...

here's one of those links, if allowed: http://tinyurl.com/AboutUSD

gwac0 said...

Frozen Tundra??
Thanks for this blog

Greg In Spokane

Anonymous said...

Thanks Allan and Happy Thanksgiving! Gary

Anonymous said...

Allan,

Happy Thanksgiving. I have been moved (not the first time) by your romantic stories. They remind me some parts of my young existence being torn-apart by winds of different cultures, traditions, feelings and displacement.
Thank you for keping this blog so emotional and human.
Recently I discovered this piece of music dated 1964 which I want to share:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x27wf7_animals-house-of-the-rising-sun_music

Best to you
Lili

Allan said...

Best to you, too Lili. Kindred spirits that we are.

A

Anonymous said...

Hey Allan

Happy thanksgiving and many thanks from up here in Canada

Eric

jerrynmn1 said...

Allan-
Your words are from the heart, sincere, personal, beautiful and at times ugly sad.Thank you for having the courage to share both parts with us.
Those of us like yourself know that there is are inner dark places of hell we cannot and must never forget. Wall Street is a serious game, hopefully we will all learn from you and make money, but life is always more important than stocks, and that honesty from you is what makes this blog so special-Jerry

Allan said...

Jerry,

Thank you for that, means a lot to me, always does when I hear from a reader who really gets it, gets me, get's life.

Meanwhile, tonight Global equity markets are HARD DOWN. I have a full SHORT position on with TZA, hopefully many of you are also so positioned. Too tired for a full fledged chart update tonight, but EW-wise, everything is consistent with a crash phase, if that is what is on the table for us. If so, SHORTS should be held tight and added to for weeks to come.

A

Anonymous said...

I dont want to always be the contrarian voice here,but since the market has been demonstrating a certain 'movement pattern' all year,it bears repeating.
All the major swings have taken place at or very near the full moon and /or new moon times.
The next full moon zone is from monday nov.30 thru friday dec.4.
The indicator is one that suggests a "reversal". Which could mean a surprizing whipsaw that fools every bear next week.
I'm not wagering on it,unless my stock charts look right for it,but mostly just plan to watch what happens,and make later plans for the second swing.
The last 'full moon reversal swing' was november 2,coming off the big october 19 (new moon) top.
This is a perfect example of what I'm trying to describe.
Look at the S+P 500 chart.
Look at march 3 bottom....FULL MOON .
june 3 top ...FULL MOON.
July 7 bottom... FULL MOON
August 3 top ...FULL MOON
Sept 2 bottom....FULL MOON
October 2(sept 30 area)...FULL MOON
..................................

This last cycle looks a little trickier. Nov.2 reversal swing ...on time (FULL MOON) ...but it topped early around nov. 10 ,instead of stretching to november 18 (new moon)....reversed,but zig zaggy to the present.This last week has been an 'in-between zone'....like the zone between august 3 and sept.2,with august 17 in between.

Just because this peculiar 'indicator' has been strikingly predictive all year,doesnt mean it will work again next week.
But in my mind,it deserves to be watched as an indicator.

I wont be surprized at all,if these markets going down this week turnabout in a sharp reversal some time next week and race back up to new highs.

If that happens,I will be calling this move the beginning of 'wave 5 'as subwave 1 of 5. I might let it run to completion,watch wave 2 correct....and jump onboard the subwave 3.going up.target? maybe S+P 500 at 1150 to 1200 area. lets say 1170 for fun.
If the S+P holds next week at 1070...the clever rigged game engineers might just give us a 100 point wave to 1170.
or maybe 1045 to 1145.

Its all speculation analysis.but look at the S+P chart and the calendar.It shows what it shows.

When I said that this last week was a zig zaggy in between zone not clearly showing a wave direction....that doesnt fit well with the full moon reversal plan.....so in order for a strong reversal to get triggered.... you have to start with a strong movement in one direction first. Then, trigger the full moon reversal the other way.It smells like a set up for a whipsaw to me.
and engineering a happy christmas retail season for all sheeple.

Anonymous said...

Oops,sorry, I have to correct a few pieces of data. I got confused about the s=p chart with one of my stock charts.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

I had mistakenly said the S+P chart after it reversed on nov.2 (full moon) peaked on nov.10... this was my mistake.
It peaked at the new moon zone november 16 and reversed....but in zig zaggy fashion, dropped to november 20, ALSO IN the new moon zone...and Reversed there.
so That zone is the tricky part of this cycle...hard to read what it portends.
The wave structure looks like a wave 4 correction,and the oscillators show that pattern count.
I might agree with Allan,that a down wave is ready to plunge...but I remain cautious on the watch for a big stick save (maybe the 1070 area) and a sharp reversal sometime in the full moon zone next week.I look at 1070 and 1045 as critical S/R points.

Anonymous said...

One last comment about this full moon reversal thing,and the current S+P ...
IF one is looking for a trend continuing UPWARD...then there NEEDS to be a downward movement now for the next few days...So That....the 'reversal ' Upward can happen at the full moontime.probably later in the week.
IF ,on the other hand, the market continues to rise upward early in the week,THAT could portend the 'Full Moon Reversal' turning sharp down and That,I would forecast in agreement with Allan, as the beginning of a big wave down.

Bottom line.... If the full moon/new moon swing patterns continue as they have for the whole year,I'm looking for early in the week going one direction and later in the week a big full moon reversal.

P.S. I know all this has nothing to do with Allan's day trading,except to offer a counterpoint of some sort,by looking at a different indicator and sometimes different wave counting.

Anonymous said...

I have a full SHORT position on with TZA..

What does that mean?

Are you buying TZA long
or
Are you shorting TZA?

Sean said...

Anon 8:06am -- He's long TZA.

Anonymous said...

I guess that means that anyone who bought TZA long this morning is losing money.

It opened around $13.00 and it is now $12.67.

This is a very strange market.

Anonymous said...

Very good. We had 3 Super Pumas of guests chopper in for the weekend.

And we were heavily short going into today on Allan's advice. Made about $265K on the Dubai drop.

Thanks Allan!

HVBVI

Anonymous said...

Does anyone here THINK that someone knew about the Dubai drop?

Does anyone here believe that Wall Street will always make millions because they control the trend?

And if so, why do I believe I can make a living trading? Seems to me you have to have a lot of money to make money...because the little people can't afford an error.


Liam