Friday, December 07, 2007

Two Gurus

According to his own records, Jim Cramer's portfolio (that he sells access to via "Action Alerts Plus" $400/year service) is up 42.98% since January 1, 2002. For the six years, he is averaging 7.14% per year. During that same time frame, the Nasdaq Index is up 32%, or an average of a little over 5% a year. The S&P 500 is likewise up about 5% a year for that period. So give the little round man credit for longer-term outperformance. But it is a far cry from his boasting, "I am not here to make friends, I am her to make you rich." At 7% a year, how long will it take Jim to booyah us all to being rich?

Which brings me to Jim Rogers. A few years ago he published, "Hot Commodities" where he suggested that the commodities markets were the place to be. Since then, you actually could have become rich investing in futures contracts underlying almost any commodity he recommended in that book. A few days ago, Rogers published, "A Bull in China," which I am currently reading. His thesis this time is that economic trends in China strongly suggest that Chinese stocks and stocks of other companies with a strong presence in China's development from third world to world leadership, will provide similar opportunities for huge investment gains.

So there you have it. Watch, read and listen to Jim Cramer and barely beat out the market averages or read and listen to Jim Rogers and make a killing in the next dynamic investment opportunity of our lifetimes.

A tale of two gurus.

A

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan:

While I am a HUGE fan of Jim Rogers' and correspond with him directly a few times a year on a class I teach and other matters, I must disagree somewhat with your post.

His long term, general fundamental analysis of entire countries and huge market sectors is very good- that's why Soros hired him.

But his trading is LOUSY at least over the short to intermediate term and frequently his long term picks tank as well (I checked many of his picks from his first book 'Investment Biker') and many of them (i.e. shorting Debeers) tanked hard.

Soros, in his own book "Soros on Soros" said as much- Rogers is a great fundamentalist but I would not let him trade with our real money."

Rogers is open and honest, unlike Cramer who is a joke, but following him from a TRADING standpoint is not a good idea.Esp. for many of the readers here who seem to be very short term traders.

I am authoring an examination on this topic at this very moment "Emerging Markets."

YOUR picks on this site are MUCH better than anything I've seen from Jim R., although his ideas are very interesting and insightful.

Now, if you rode a motorbike around the world.... maybe this blog would REALLY get going!


Respectfully,

John K.

Washington, DC

Eric said...

Allan,

Can you recommend any websites for us to "study" over the weekend, sites that have shaped your momemtum trading style?

I already subscribed to Muathe but admittedly have not checked into his site for a while due to constantly being stopped out.

I am sure you don't want to share too much of your trading style but any sites that helped you shape your style?

Eric

Allan said...

Eric, If you read my Profile, my trading system was developed during the long idle hours of driving across this country in the summer of 2003. I doubt you can replicate that this weekend and even if you did, it is a long shot you would come up with the same trading system.

As for Mauthe, it is not my system, nor any part of it, just a site for trading ideas for those without trading ideas of their own.

The good news is I am toying with a couple of ideas that would divulge a lot more, of the system or of my picks, probably early next year. Once I am convinced it can be done without diminishing my own profits, I may just give it a go.

The Red Wings shot-out Minnesota tonight, 5-0. Next game is Sunday night.

A

Eric said...

Allan,

I look forward to the site!

Thanks for CNB and SIRF. Traded these and did well.

Eric

Anonymous said...

Hi Allan,without divulging anything proprietery,does your system involve price/time targets?
Thanks,Ron

Allan said...

Ron,

No.

A

Anonymous said...

Allan,

This is off topic, but can you provide an update for Intelligent Options, the newsletter you profiled? What do you think of it since your last post? Would you still rate it as a "Buy?"

Anonymous said...

Forgot to leave my name on the above post...

Jeff
Arkansas

Allan said...

Jeff,

Still thumbs up, until proven otherwise.

A

Anonymous said...

Allan,speaking of gurus,Gary Kaltbaum of the Investors Edge radio program,does a decent job of determining intermediate term trend in the market and indentifying leaders.I find his commentary helpful,although I don't know his documented track record.
Ron