Wednesday, January 20, 2010

SPX Hourly Chart

Below is the SPX hourly chart as we approach the top of the first hour in Wednesday's early trading.  As I wrote in my email update this morning, "After several false alarms with this model in the past two weeks, will this be the flip that sticks?"


SPX Hourly, Pending Sell Signal


30 comments:

Seawaves said...

Alan
thanks for your update. I am new here, may i know what is that solid line in your chart for triggering trades?

Edwardo said...

The top, perhaps THE TOP, is in. The last few trading days have seen a big ABC wave 2. Today's action is a wave 3.

Anonymous said...

Edwardo:
As much as I respect your blog and your thinking, I still must say that the big bears are just way too zealous and dogmatic.
Nothing has happened yet (like we have not seen 2-3 days of consecutive >2% declines), but the big bears come out with their top calling...
It's just getting tiring, that's all.

Anonymous said...

allan

any news on nnvc

it has taken a haircut the last 3 days?

Anonymous said...

The hype is over, nnvc will close under a buck!

Allan said...

Re: NNVC

If you're worried about day-to-day fluctuations, you don't understand the underlying story. This is a four-year buy and hold stock. Today's price action is meaningless against what the future should hold for these shares.

Anonymous said...

yeah but they need to announce something positive at some point

Anonymous said...

Allan.....in the KMKCF thread, you commented until thursday's high is taken out.

it looks like on the chart that it was at the close.........even intraday, it looks like ystdy was 1150.23 and thurs was 1150.11......

please straighten me out.

also, it the big gad down this morning meaningful......does it have to be filled ?

thnx

Anonymous said...

I have a funny feeling that this market is shredding your system with these whipsaws. A system which performed as well as yours did last year is bound to blow up. It is the law of nature. Just as soon as you sell its signals is when it will under perform. Again law of nature.

Chet

Allan said...

Nature of the beast, hourly model. My Daily Models have yet to flip from last November's signals.

Anonymous said...

Edwardo is right.

For the past 7-8 months I've read bearish call after bearish call and still we go up.

Sure, we'll hit a wall at some point and have a sell off - maybe even 15-20% - but doom is not around the corner. It's these small sell offs that convince me of that. Consolidation is a good thing. Two or three or six months of a flat market is just fine.

I'm mostly long stocks. Many are small caps like NNVC in which I use large dips to buy more. But I've also been holding BAC, INTC, BP amongst a dozen or so others and every time I've panicked and sold I've regretted it.

I'm worried, like most people, but not jumping on a chair every time I hear a peep that sounds like a mouse...

RC

Anonymous said...

rc

did you buy nnvc on this dip?

how many shares do you own, these penny stocks just scare me

Wayne said...

daily models worked wonderfully for me today ... I got out of gold and saved about a buck in pps decline. Meanwhile I did NOT go short because the daily threshold did NOT hold at close.

All I really had to do is decide whether I wanted to take a chance on entering the trade if the 1133 level was taken out mid-day, with the risk being I close the trade at a loss if it looks like it's closing above 1133. I decided I would risk a mid-day trade entry at 1125, and got lucky (it went down to 1127).

So far the signals are doing their job. I expect some whipsaws, but hopefully not enough to significantly detract from the benefit of catching the major trends.

Wayne

StanTrenton said...

"A system which performed as well as yours did last year is bound to blow up."
I disagree.
Whether a system is robust or not is not based strictly on performance. Curve fitting, too many variables, too complicated, and limited or improper backtesting over too short a time period lead to system to blow-ups.
From my observation, this system has been correctly tested, and confirmed in real time by Allan. Additionally, I believe that the signal line is driven by only 2 simple variables.
There's really not too much that can go wrong.
I'm confident that it will continue to perform well going forward. Due to its simplicity, I'd be surprised if it didn't.
Today it kept us correctly long in the Daily SPX. The trend is still up. The decision easy: No need to predict - Just follow the system by staying long with the SPX trend.
Stan

Anonymous said...

I bought more NNVC yesterday at 1.07 and was planning to buy again under 1.00. Between .95-.98.

I think there's a good chance it goes back to the mid .80s but I don't want to have a lifetime of regrets if it runs up next week or next month and I'm holding a relatively small base.

RC

Anonymous said...

rc

it seems nnvc needs to put some news out there to ramp this up

its time to shit or get off the pot

Link McGinnis said...

Does anyone know how to view a chart of SPX on NinjaTrader? Underlying data feed is TDAmeritrade.

CDD13 said...

Go to Tools > Instrument Manager and sort the instruments by "Type"

Scroll to Index under the "Type" column and see if you have it listed there. On IB the ticker in Ninjatrader is SP500. Not sure what it is in TDAmeritrade, but the descriptions next to the tickers will tell you which one is the S&P500.

Anonymous said...

* * * * 800 B.C. Ancient Greece * * * *
HOMER - THE ODYSSEY, book XII:

"'When your crew have taken you past these Sirens, I cannot give you coherent directions as to which of two courses you are to take; I will lay the two alternatives before you, and you must consider them for yourself. . . . . . . lies the sucking whirlpool of Charybdis. . . . you must hug the Scylla side and drive ship by as fast as you can, for you had better lose six men than your whole crew.'

"'Is there no way,' said I, 'of escaping Charybdis, and at the same time keeping Scylla off when she is trying to harm my men?'

"'You dare-devil,' replied the goddess, you are always wanting to fight somebody or something; you will not let yourself be beaten even by the immortals. . . .'"

VANGELIS Sirens Whispering

Mike said...

good thoughts Wayne.

stay with the trade...

-Mike

Link McGinnis said...

@CDD13 - Thanks! That was simple, huh?

Anonymous said...

thoughts on timing of entry for NNVC...

I did a complex charting and the picture looks like its in the process of establishing a new support level.... up from the old one at .70 and .80

the days of .70 and maybe even .80 may be gone.... but there is a possibility of a gradual slide down to the .80 area in the coming weeks, depending on how hard and steady down the greater market falls in the coming weeks. .

I personally would not rush into NNVC at the 1.00 level,but thats a choice folks have to make.
the current support level seems to be around the .85 to .89 area. watching it hold at the 1.00 mark is a tough call because those double 00 levels are often strong by themselves.
It may be range bound for a number of days between 1.00 and 1.10.
breaking below 1.00 looks for support around .89.
. the difference in cost basis between .89 area and 1.00 for the core holding of $ 10,000 would be a difference of around a thousand bucks.
the purpose of the buy and hold of this stock is to earn about 500 thousand bucks.

Anonymous said...

Market Watching on Thursday jan 21.
After a big down day wednesday....the wizard of wall st. engineers need to crank up the super computers and give us a big stick save today if the market is going to hold up.

It looked promising this morning at the open, but only for a whopping 15 minutes and then....BAM
wheres my Plunge Protection Team when I need them ????
Now seems like a good time for it......

Anonymous said...

i would think nnvc may be immune to a mkt downturn if what allan says is true

it seems like there may be news pending that could really pump things up

maybe allan can share more on this

great blog here

Anonymous said...

another thing on nnvc, the sell off the last 3 days has been on lower volume than the run up that preceeded it

Anonymous said...

it IS a good sign that NNVC is holding at support in the 1 dollar area. Most everything else is tanking today

Anonymous said...

yep

just went green too

allan should start a nnvc message board here
yahoo board is useless

Anonymous said...

i am not an elliot wave person but nnvc looks like it might be in a wave 2 correction and it looks to have retraced 61.8% of wave 1 which i have marked at .80

if this is the case then wave 3 should be 1.618 of the wave 1 move which would yield a price of 1.60

i saw earlier where allan has a different wave count but who the hell knows with ew as the counts always seem to change

mike

Garrett said...

Forgive me, I'm new here. I'm thinking about getting into NNVC just based on all the hype from this page, but I still can't help but wonder what all the fuss is about? Is there some expected news event in the future? If so, it would already be priced in the market, right? So whats the big deal about NNVC???

Anonymous said...

thats what i am asking myself