NNVC - update

In the spirit of confirmatory analysis, a review of NNVC, both technically and fundamentally.  Let's start with the most objective analysis, a look at a longer-term trend chart.

The Weekly chart below is still LONG and will stay that way above $0.95.

But maybe more interesting is a Daily chart and the price movement that begins about ten days into January:

 

The big move here is from January 11th through 14th, from about $1.00 to a high of $1.29, a 29% pop in four days,  Why?  What happened on or about January 10th - 11th to merit such a pop?

There was a write up on NNVC by Agora Financial dated December 30, 2009.  That certainly raised public awareness of NanoViricides and contributed to higher prices.  But by the end of the first week of January, that horse had left the barn.

The there was this Press Release, dated January 11, 2010:

NanoViricides Invited to Present at the Biotech Showcase Conference in San Francisco

No, I don't think an announcement about presenting at a Biotechnology Conference is in and of itself responsible for an almost 30% pop in market capitalization.

But what may not have been given its due is the rest of that January 11th Press Release, where the real story of this company and its research and development successes was being told.

Let's take a closer look at what the company reported behind the headline above:

The Company now has four commercially important drugs in its pipeline, targeting a total market size of approximately $40 Billion. These drugs target HIV, all Influenzas, viral diseases of the external Eye, and Herpes Simplex viral infections including cold sores and genital herpes (HSV). In addition, the Company has R&D programs in collaborations with reputed institutions against several Neglected Tropical Diseases and agents of interest for Biosecurity. These include hemorrhagic fever viruses such as Ebola/Marburg, Dengue, and Rabies, among others.

Note that this $135M market cap company has four commercially important drugs in its pipeline targeting a total market size of approximately $40B.

Now read this from the very same press release:

The Company has previously reported that its anti-HIV drug candidate was >25X (or >2,500%) more effective than the oral HAART treatment comprising three drugs, on a drug load basis. This study employed a standard SCID-Hu Thy/Liv mouse model. Human lymphocytes implanted in a mouse, and infected with HIV, are treated with antiviral drugs in this model. It is very important to note that no adverse events were observed in the nanoviricide treated mice, while the HAART-treated mice exhibited clinical signs of side effects. HAART or “highly active anti-retroviral therapy” is a three-drug combination therapy currently in use in human clinical practice, and is regarded as the most effective therapeutic regimen against HIV. If these preliminary results are confirmed in further animal studies and in human clinical trials, the Company believes that HIVCide™ could very well result in a “Functional Cure” for HIV/AIDS.

Yes, you read it right, "the Company believes that "HIVCide™ could very well result in a Functional Cure for HIV/AIDS."

One more, indulge me:

The Company also recently reported that it has successfully added a new anti-HSV drug program to its pipeline this year. The Company‘s topical anti-herpes drug candidate has already demonstrated greater than 10,000-fold (>99.99%, or >4 logs) reduction in virus quantity in cell culture models of HSV-1 infection. Animal model studies of topical and genital herpes are planned.

Reduction in viral load of (>99.99% or > 4 logs)

Where does that leave this stock and just what does it matter exactly where theses shares are trading from one day to the next?

“We are now well poised to further develop our drug candidates with the objective of filing an IND application as soon as possible,” said Dr. Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company.

I read a lot of angst from shareholders of NNVC who bought in on the recent run up over $1.20 a share and are today underwater.  From a long time, very long time shareholder to you, I say, "Been there, done that."  Over the past 5 years I have been underwater on almost every share of NNVC which I purchased, including my first shares, bought at about 10c and swiftly underwater by 20% at 8c.  Last year at this time I bought more at 75c only to see it fall into the high 50c range in the course of two months.  When it fell 25% from my entry,  I bought more. 

Who wants to play musical chairs with these shares, trade in and out, risking being out when the news hits that any of the above projects achieves a reportable milestone, or,

In addition, the Company has R&D programs in collaborations with reputed institutions against several Neglected Tropical Diseases and agents of interest for Biosecurity. These include hemorrhagic fever viruses such as Ebola/Marburg, Dengue, and Rabies, among others.

 ....risk being out when one of those reputed institutions, or, agents of interest for Biosecurity, cuts a deal with NNVC seemingly out of the blue sending these shares soaring?

I have no interest in trading these shares, just holding tight and buying more should an opportunity arise.  I've done my research and am staying on top of the company, its shares and the diseases it is addressing with its products.  As I have told many of you privately, I don't watch day-to-day fluctuations of share price, because I don't care, not even about the chart first above.  My bet is on the table, the wheel is spinning and its time to sit back and enjoy the experience of being a part of a game-changing paradigm shifting medical miracle. 

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