Saturday, January 23, 2010

NNVC - update

In the spirit of confirmatory analysis, a review of NNVC, both technically and fundamentally.  Let's start with the most objective analysis, a look at a longer-term trend chart.

The Weekly chart below is still LONG and will stay that way above $0.95.

But maybe more interesting is a Daily chart and the price movement that begins about ten days into January:


The big move here is from January 11th through 14th, from about $1.00 to a high of $1.29, a 29% pop in four days,  Why?  What happened on or about January 10th - 11th to merit such a pop?

There was a write up on NNVC by Agora Financial dated December 30, 2009.  That certainly raised public awareness of NanoViricides and contributed to higher prices.  But by the end of the first week of January, that horse had left the barn.

The there was this Press Release, dated January 11, 2010:

No, I don't think an announcement about presenting at a Biotechnology Conference is in and of itself responsible for an almost 30% pop in market capitalization.

But what may not have been given its due is the rest of that January 11th Press Release, where the real story of this company and its research and development successes was being told.

Let's take a closer look at what the company reported behind the headline above:
The Company now has four commercially important drugs in its pipeline, targeting a total market size of approximately $40 Billion. These drugs target HIV, all Influenzas, viral diseases of the external Eye, and Herpes Simplex viral infections including cold sores and genital herpes (HSV). In addition, the Company has R&D programs in collaborations with reputed institutions against several Neglected Tropical Diseases and agents of interest for Biosecurity. These include hemorrhagic fever viruses such as Ebola/Marburg, Dengue, and Rabies, among others.

Note that this $135M market cap company has four commercially important drugs in its pipeline targeting a total market size of approximately $40B.

Now read this from the very same press release:
The Company has previously reported that its anti-HIV drug candidate was >25X (or >2,500%) more effective than the oral HAART treatment comprising three drugs, on a drug load basis. This study employed a standard SCID-Hu Thy/Liv mouse model. Human lymphocytes implanted in a mouse, and infected with HIV, are treated with antiviral drugs in this model. It is very important to note that no adverse events were observed in the nanoviricide treated mice, while the HAART-treated mice exhibited clinical signs of side effects. HAART or “highly active anti-retroviral therapy” is a three-drug combination therapy currently in use in human clinical practice, and is regarded as the most effective therapeutic regimen against HIV. If these preliminary results are confirmed in further animal studies and in human clinical trials, the Company believes that HIVCide™ could very well result in a “Functional Cure” for HIV/AIDS.
Yes, you read it right, "the Company believes that "HIVCide™ could very well result in a Functional Cure for HIV/AIDS."

One more, indulge me:
The Company also recently reported that it has successfully added a new anti-HSV drug program to its pipeline this year. The Company‘s topical anti-herpes drug candidate has already demonstrated greater than 10,000-fold (>99.99%, or >4 logs) reduction in virus quantity in cell culture models of HSV-1 infection. Animal model studies of topical and genital herpes are planned.

Reduction in viral load of (>99.99% or > 4 logs)

Where does that leave this stock and just what does it matter exactly where theses shares are trading from one day to the next?
“We are now well poised to further develop our drug candidates with the objective of filing an IND application as soon as possible,” said Dr. Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company.
I read a lot of angst from shareholders of NNVC who bought in on the recent run up over $1.20 a share and are today underwater.  From a long time, very long time shareholder to you, I say, "Been there, done that."  Over the past 5 years I have been underwater on almost every share of NNVC which I purchased, including my first shares, bought at about 10c and swiftly underwater by 20% at 8c.  Last year at this time I bought more at 75c only to see it fall into the high 50c range in the course of two months.  When it fell 25% from my entry,  I bought more. 

Who wants to play musical chairs with these shares, trade in and out, risking being out when the news hits that any of the above projects achieves a reportable milestone, or,
In addition, the Company has R&D programs in collaborations with reputed institutions against several Neglected Tropical Diseases and agents of interest for Biosecurity. These include hemorrhagic fever viruses such as Ebola/Marburg, Dengue, and Rabies, among others.

 ....risk being out when one of those reputed institutions, or, agents of interest for Biosecurity, cuts a deal with NNVC seemingly out of the blue sending these shares soaring?

I have no interest in trading these shares, just holding tight and buying more should an opportunity arise.  I've done my research and am staying on top of the company, its shares and the diseases it is addressing with its products.  As I have told many of you privately, I don't watch day-to-day fluctuations of share price, because I don't care, not even about the chart first above.  My bet is on the table, the wheel is spinning and its time to sit back and enjoy the experience of being a part of a game-changing paradigm shifting medical miracle. 



Anonymous said...

thanks for the indepth analysis on nnvc

if only we knew when that bombshell was going to hit the wires, now that would be sweet

hopefully it will be soon

Anonymous said...

allan, hope you don't mind me posting this article here but it is pretty timely and makes reference to the nanotechnology/biotech thing

Anonymous said...

To "Anonymous" who posted the link to John Mauldin's "The Coming BioTech Bubble" in these comments.

Your recommendation of Patrick Cox's "Breakthrough Technology Alert" is a good one. Patrick covers NanoViricides (NNVC) in his December 30, 2009 letter, along with five other promising companies.

Allan, thanks for your excellent blog!

Anonymous said...

with all the drugs in the pipeline, why do you suppose they have not been able to partner with pharma yet?

Anonymous said...

You partner when you think you can get the best price for doing so. If NNVC is not desperate, and they don't seem to be, they can steadily improve their position to encourage bidding. I don't know that this is the answer to your question, but it seems to me to be what's up.

Anonymous said...

well i keep hoping something will happen as some of us have been waiting a few years now for something to move share price

just reading thru this blog you can see that allan has been pumping non stop yet no appreciable move up

sure its been up but then back down

if you bought at 3 a year ago i am sure you are getting antsy

they need to produce something

Anonymous said...

Below is a story from two years ago. Just last month Seymour was talking about the same thing as if it was new material.

WTF is it with this company? Do they really have anything going for them? Seems like they haven't come up with much yet and are still a long way off from delivering on anything.

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company"), announced today that the broad-spectrum nanoviricides™ drug candidates were found to be highly effective against the deadly Ebola virus in initial cell culture studies by scientists at the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID).

Read at

T said...

Funny how despite your best efforts ,Allan,some folks just dont seem to get it ,about NNVC.

If this was 1910,they would be naysaying the same way about that motorized buggy Henry Ford made. which cost too much for the average guy to buy and ,what else... there arent even enough paved roads to drive it on.
Investing is always a game of probabilities and thoughtful research.
I see no reason to be suspicious or doubtful about NNVC at this point.

My struggle now is the conflict between wishing it drops down again one more time to .85 so I can buy more, versus wanting it to establish a solid floor at 1.00 from here on.

Thanks for the solid summary update.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the update Allen, it seems more positive feed back on comments then negitive. I will do the park and ride on this one.

Anonymous said...

nnvc has been pumped here for three years and where has it gone? nowhere

Anonymous said...

this was allans stock of the year last year and now again this year

i understand he feels strongly about nnvc but where's the beef?

how much longer can investors be expected to hang given that clinical trials haven't even started

t said...

Food for thought for those interested in buying nnvc at the best opportunity....
Ive been watching the timing cycles of the new and full moon work strangely well for the last year.showing the timing for reversals of direction.
the next such timing zone is thursday and friday of next week.... jan. 28/29

Since NNVC has been correcting down ,I forsee any continued down ,or sideways and down during the early part of next week would reach a key support level,and wherever that might be....come thursday or friday...would suggest the last train to get onboard ,for this coming cycle.Probabilities are that price trend would reverse ,which means going back up.

However,the opposite angle would be the case... IF... NNVC jumps up on monday and continues upward thru the week into thursday and friday....could mean the 'reversal' would take it Down from the high point.

Whichever direction NNVC is going from monday thru wednesday into thursday....the end of the week marks a timing zone for 'reversal' of direction and the start of the next wave cycle for the month.

My own speculation is that the full moon of jan 28/29 timing for reversal will mark the LOW for this cycle and the reversal will take NNVC (and the market ) UP.

However, based on the wave action of the last 2 weeks,which seems to indicate the beginning of a downward trend,possibly a major downward trend,or at least a major correction,which could last a few months.... any counter move upward,such as what could happen on january 28/29 would be suggesting a correction wave,maybe a-b-c type, that retraces 38% or 50 % before reversing and continuing Down.

What impact this down trend would have on NNVC,one can only guess.... but my own guess would be that NNVC might trend sideways in a range,between 1.20 and .80

and chart analysis with trendlines suggest such a zone for the next few months.with extremes being 1.40 on the high side and .70 on the low side

Anonymous said...

God I hope they get there herpes drug approved. Itching like crazy over here.

Anonymous said...

allan, thank you for all your great work here

what do you think will be the next news item that will launch nnvc

will it be the filing of the ind or perhaps being listed on a major exchange or maybe a deal with the govt or a licensing agreement

just curious as to what you think will be the next news item

Anonymous said...

Hey t, you're not for real are you?
You using Arch Crawford quackery?