Friday, January 15, 2010

Terminal Wave Structure?


SPX Daily

9 comments:

Allan said...

From Robert McHugh

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp

We believe the third major top of the past decade is imminent. Maybe it happened today. Maybe it comes in two weeks, maybe at our next phi mate turn date in February. The key here is not to pick the exact top. This top will lead to a stock market decline that could be far worse than the past two of the 2000 millenium. The first major decline started on January 14th, 2000, and bottomed October 9th, 2002, a 38 percent plunge. The second major top started on October 9th, 2007 at 14,164.53 (closing basis) and plunged to the March 9th, 2009 bottom at 6,547.05, a 54 percent plunge. The next plunge should start soon and lead to a decline over the next 2 to 4 years, possibly all the way to zero, in stair step fashion, not all at once. The massive Bearish Head & Shoulders tops forming all over the world suggest this downside target, and relentless decline, will accompany world-wide calamity.

Anonymous said...

allan,

please repeat if the Daily flip requires a CLOSE below the target, or just an intraday breach.

PENN STATE Eric said...

Hello Allan:

Been a while since I posted, but I stay current and read up the blog still. I hope all is well.

I've been reading a lot about this decline or 'depression #2' happening from a lot of big players and investment 'gurus', former GS guys and many others.

My only comment is that this crash is considering only the domestic market, our US economy. What about globally? Someone is making money somewhere else... if the global economy lost money (all economies worldwide) the playing field is level. I am optimistic that global growth and the likes of companies that solve global issues (say NNVC) can still provide savvy investors wealth while others pigeon hole themselves inside this market that's only boundaries are the oceans around us.

It's still concerning that many prominent investors are worried and proclaiming it. Traders, different story - can make money in either direction, up or down.

In any case, here's to hoping the next decade brings new developments to the table. We all know history repeats itself, let's make some money off of that trend.

Best Regards to All

Anonymous said...

Allan we got whipped today on the daily signal. Did you get back long the SPX?

Anonymous said...

Checking in from New Orleans.

Allan,

RE: Robert McHugh.

Today the Emerging Markets ETFs gave the first signal of a trend change .


Lets remain patient for the signals on $Spx and Russell 2000.

Have enjoyed using some of the services and books you have commented on in this blog...Neowave, Xyber9, Michael Covell etc.

Any other newsletters or services that you think are worthwhile? Thanks

Anonymous said...

The charts look like a subwave 4 is ongoing.
the 2 double tops and current low represent subwaves a-b-c, with maybe a subwave d and e to follow,or maybe this current low would become the low of the correction.the next several days will tell.

Its hard not to panic since weve been burned last year.

Thats psychological.

But technically speaking, the market remains in an uptrend as long as it remains above the November low.

How would one define a 'healthy' correction.

Is it 'ok' if the S+P declines back to 1100
and Holds?

What if market corrects all the way to the JULY 2009 low....and HOLDS.?

Its easy to describe how unhealthy the U.S. economy is.and what impact it has on the global economy.Prechter's "all one market" theory.

Its probably important for everyone to have a well thought out strategy in place by now.

Where to lock in profits and get into cash. etc.

But If this is the beginning of a correction, shouldnt we look for an a-b-c pattern and possibly a Hold at a key support point when this abc is completed.

Followed by whatever reversal back Uptrend may play out. and ...Not Panic
until we see what all that looks like in the coming weeks.
The previous big correction looked scarey in september until it reversed october 1. the next big correction looked scarey again from oct 19 until november 2 when it reversed again.

If we get too scared with a hair trigger edge every time the market takes a dip..... thats psychological.
Left over from the trauma of last year.

Count the elliott waves,and the sub waves,look at the fibonnacci levels,on longer time frames.

Rearrange the deck chairs,and sweep off the ice berg chunks and dont worry too much yet.

.....not just yet

Anonymous said...

Timing has alot to do with Cycles.
Finding the pattern and rhythem of cycles.
add to that elliott waves,and fibonnacci points,and trendlines,and indicators.
Add to that a gut feeling about the whole Game,and what the fine details of the game mean to you as you analyze.
Add to that your rational logical assessment of all the data... and then...add to that whatever sudden monkey wrench the government throws into the mix...which brings you back to square one.
........................
Start all over .
.........................
toss a coin.
.............................. toss it again....

Find something that works and use it.
..........................

One thing that has worked for me is watching the full moon/new moon as signals timing a Reversal.
Todays big move down was a new moon (eclipse) reversal moment.

But my gut feeling is that it could be a whipsaw fake out waiting for next tuesday to blast back UP...... why? by what rationale do I say that?

.....Psychological evaluation. The psychology Factor.
Mass Market/sheeple Psychology management 101

Based on this logical thought pattern.
1) the market is a totally rigged game engineered and totally controlled by the government.
2)The Master Engineers KNOW all about mass psychology and they know that the sheeple are still traumatized from last year.
3) therefore, they know they have to allay these fears at critical times (like now) like last fall,like last july,.....
4) or else they will forever lose the sheeple to the investment casino world.
5) therefore, they Have to engineer stick saves at critical times....like now.... and engineer soft landings,and at the same time engineer a 'real' correction that looks real in TA terms.
6) in order to get investors back into the market.....and allay fears of another collapse.
7) This is a big part of the engineering process for this year,coming off the crash of last year..... they Must hold up the market at support. Create levels of support. control a soft landing correction, dont let the sheeple panic.
IF the market really collapses here and now....it will generate panic ,in the new year, just when investors reentered the market again....the timing would be All Wrong for this kind of major collapse ...right now.

I expect the Master Engineers to turn on the super computers and blast the market back up next week or at least keep this slide under control and stop the bleeding in this zone. holding the market up ,in zig zag sideways at least, and for the next 2 weeks. holding. and then at the next full moon zone (january 28/29) blast the market up back into happy land.

........................

the market wants happy sheeple staying in the game.
they dont want lemmings panicking as they rush over the cliff edge.


I want to stay calm in the coming week or two.
I want the wizards of the Game to make it all better in the next two weeks.

Anonymous said...

... but I also respect Prechter. and I will have all my stops in place.

Anonymous said...

From Robert McHugh,

"The next plunge should start soon and lead to a decline over the next 2 to 4 years, possibly all the way to zero."

Uh huh....what? Zero? Really. If the market gets anywhere close to zero you're going to have to worry about more than your investments. The fabric of society as we know it would be completely shredded and chaos would insue.

There will be no place to run, no place to hide. Gold will be worthless because nobody will have any money to buy it. You might be able trade it for another precious metal but you won't be able to make a sandwich with it.

And all this talk of "sheeple" and the market being "a rigged game" well, if that's the case, why did they let this thing crash in 2008? Why didn't they just ask the "master Engineers to turn on the super computers and blast the market back up" back then?

Wait, I know...the answer to everything is....

drumroll....

It's Gods will!

P.S - I know this is true because I heard it on Fox News.