Sunday, January 10, 2010

Weekly Trend Models


SPY



SLV



TBT



GS





GOOG




AAPL



AMZN



BIDU


In the future I'll be sending out charts like this to my subscriber list, especially if there are changes in Weekly Models that I deem to be of particular trading significance.  As for these charts, take a close look at the last chart, BIDU.  Here is a closer view:




Pay particular notice to how the Vortex Indicator kept the chart LONG all of the way up from last March.  Although the weekly price range of BIDU touched the ATR line on many occasions, whipsaws could have been avoided by giving weight to the status of Vortex.

Here is a quick and dirty four year summary of trades, without regard to Vortex:

 
BIDU Weekly Signals from Jan, 2006


That's almost 25% average gain per trade,  a winning percentage of about two wins out of every three trades and 15 total trades in four years, or about 4 trades per year.    It takes some discipline to trade a model like this and these are hypothetical results, nonetheless, I see a whole lot of potential if we assume that these results are not an anomaly, but are likely typical of this longer-term rule-based approach to trading.


A


7 comments:

Anonymous said...

music for when the Zamboni does its work on the ice

hockey puck jockey

that hot chick in the beer line is staring at you

Anonymous said...

alla, just curious how you came up with your 100 target and 4 year timeframe on nnvc

thanks

Allan said...

Re: NNVC

I couldn't post my true target, I would lose all credibility. It's up there, way, way up there.

Mike said...

thanks for the numbers on BIDU...

pretty voracious.

-Mike

Anonymous said...

allan, do you have some firsthand knowledge of the situation with nnvc

Pivot Trend said...

Thanks Allan for this. I am wondering whether you could add the max drawdown (% would be fine) for each trade. Just want to have a feeling of what kinds of risks are for each trade.

Anonymous said...

ALLAN'S GOT THE POWER!

Check out a WKLY Ford ATR

Yikes!

Lucky