Sunday, January 10, 2010

Cataclysmic resolution

The latest from Jim Sloman.

The Case for A Global Meltdown

In his latest free update, Jim Sloman makes his case that we are in a depression, with real unemployment at 22% and the effect of massive global stimulus weakening in an classic example of the law of diminishing returns.



Our only hope 


Using graphic examples of foreign stock markets, the picture he paints is in a word:

Cataclysmic

The chart of an addict who keeps taking a drug only to find it provides less and less effect.  Meanwhile the body (economies) keeps deteriorating.  The ultimate resolution is economic chaos. 



S&P Daily


Timing?  Other then a compelling case that we are running out of time, the case is made that some out-of-the-blue geopolitical event, or unexpected financial crisis, will trigger a downward cascade of global financial markets.

I have no guess, but I do have a certainty:

will catch every major move 
in any direction
in any market
in any ETF
or in any stock.


A

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

allan
only saw pt 1, is there a pt 2?

do you do elliot wave?

what are your short, intermediaterm thoughts on the markets

Allan said...

Part I is the free part, available to the general public. The rest is reserved for Jim's subscribers, of which I belong but cannot post for obvious reasons.

My short, intermediate and long term views on the markets are now defaulting to my Trend Models. All time frames have been UP for quite some time, but there are some clear indications that those directions will soon change. When they do, I'll post some charts.

Anonymous said...

allan
can sso and tna be traded opposite of your calls on sds and tza

JAPO said...

Hi,

Jim is not the only one pointing out that kind of scenario. Basically almost everyone who studies the Elliot Wave patterns are claiming for a "catastrophic" move that will continue the bear market. Some evidences are already in place. If we check the S&P weekly MACD is pretty clear that its divergence is almost negative from positive values. The last time it happenned was in March/09, but the time before that was in June/08, leading to all that we know it happenned next...

From my point of view a medium term (at least) top is almost in and it's time to get caution!

Allan said...

Re: SSO & TNA

Not only can they be traded opposite SDS & TZA "Short" signals, they probably are the preferred way to trade these signals since so many accounts are restricted from shorting SDS and TZA for one reason or another.

Given the time I would introduce some new tables showing results of alternating say, SSO and SDS for market Buys and Sells respectively, but, other demands on my time, i.e. a personal life, prevent it for now, that last post on Weekly Charts took me three hours.

You have the concept right, its just a matter of implementation.


A

Anonymous said...

Allen,
Do you have an e-mail address for subscribers to contact you?

Allan said...

Re: contact for subscribers

allallan@me.com

Anonymous said...

Jim's indicators and technical analysis looks good, feels similar to my own, ...but after spending 2 hours looking at various articles he has on his site....discovered one of his older posts,from 2006,I believe,where he claims the # 1 problem facing the usa is ....Global warming !!

I dont like to 'judge' someone's entire body of work by one piece of it,but this one piece was a doozie.
Now that the whole 'global warming' issue is shown to be a total world government scam,a taxation scheme,phony data used to create a phony scientific scheme to hoodwink the people of the world, especially those of developing nations, etc...
We were All fooled by the NWO government/media propaganda scheme

until it got found out in the nick of time.
a great victory for the common man. for now.

So if Jim still believes the 'global warming hoax hype' then ,I'd have some doubts about his other works,or major judgements and views.

but aside from this,the technical analysis programs he has look good.

Anonymous said...

Allan:

Can you tell me the name of the charting program you are using to generate that black chart and the names of the individual indicators located on it? Blowing it up still makes it un-readble to me.

Professor John K. in DC