Monday, March 22, 2010

Follow-through...or not

DJIA 240 min

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

hi Allan,
Any Bio Tech basket for non-subscribers?

Anonymous said...

A post article from manny on the IHub GNVC board he copied off of Yahoo! Thanks manny:

“Provisions in the health care bill would not allow generic imitators of bio-tech drugs on the market until after the original drugs have been on sale for 12 years.”

- Boston Globe
But if you’re a bio-tech company, it’s all going to amount to a colossal victory.

Why you ask?

Because there’s a provision in both the House and Senate version of the bill that grants a special ‘gift’ to bio-tech companies.

A gift that virtually guarantees watershed profits for bio-tech companies for many years to come…

So what is it?

12 full years of patent protection for any drugs they develop
Line

Now that might not mean a whole lot to you now- but it should.

You see, most conventional drug-makers get 5 years of patent protection for any new drugs they develop. After 5 years, generic versions of the drug are made and the price (and profits) plunge.

But not for bio-tech companies...

Under the new bill, they get a full 12 years until generics can be made. That’s an extra 7 years of blockbuster profits…

Think about that.

Pfizer (a conventional drug-maker) gets a new drug approved and gets 5 years until generics are made and the price of the drug plummets. Amgen (or any other bio-tech) gets a new drug approved and gets nearly 2 ½ times longer…

I’m not exaggerating when I tell you this is a major turning point for the bio-tech industry. And one you can take all the way to the bank.

This bill will serve as a turbo-booster for bio-tech firms that get FDA approval for new drugs and treatments. It definitely raises the stakes...

So instead of seeing a bio-tech stock jump 100%-200% as they move through the FDA clinical trial process, we could start seeing 1,000%-5,000% gains instead!

Think about what that could do to your portfolio, your bank account… and your life.

Allan said...

Re: Biotech Basket

I added a new core holding, another paradigm-changing small cap out of Israel. I will post a complete write-up later this week. In my Weekend Update, I wrote:

You wanted to buy Genentech in 1980. Here is your chance.

A

J Guang said...

Hi Allan,

I have done a backtest using the Modified ATR Trailing Stops from Stocks and Commodities Magazine using the Settings of 7 for Period and 2 for ATR Multiplication on the stocks you have mentioned on a 3 year time frame.

The Platform I have used is Esignal.

It seems that the strategy has time and time again proven to be unprofitable according to the backtest results shown on my platform.

Please clarify how did you obtain your backtest results and what are the entry rules that you use.

In addition, I believe the subscribers to your private trade signal should be looking at backtest results of 5 years or more and not just on a 1 year basis as this is too short a timeframe to show the robustness of a system.

Allan said...

Some of the most profitable trades are in ETF's that have only been trading 18 months, so I am not sure what you have tested. In any case, this trend model is working now and has worked for the past 2 years with excellent results.

As far as 5 year backtests, markets change and trading tactics that work in some markets fail in others. I am completely focused on what is working now in this market environment and its being reflected in just about every chart I have posted in the past six months.

Anonymous said...

"As far as 5 year backtests, markets change and trading tactics that work in some markets fail in others. I am completely focused on what is working now in this market environment and its being reflected in just about every chart I have posted in the past six months."

The problem is they do change, and you wont know when it happens. Any trading strategy will fail eventually.