Tuesday, March 09, 2010


FAZ Daily Trend Model

I was asked about FAZ in a Comment under the previous post.  Above is the FAZ Daily Trend Model which is saying a couple of things to me.  First, that the trend is down and has been down since a February 16, 2010 Sell Signal at 19.74.  That's a 20% gain in about three weeks and  if you can be objective, shed the bear-market-pending mind set, it's is a damn good trade.  

Second, that the Vortex Indicator is reaching extremely oversold levels, suggesting some kind of convergence of the two Vortex trend lines ahead.

Back to the mind-set thing, I'm watching the 240 minute model here, hoping to get a head start on the next trend signal.  It's really not an Armageddon play, its simply waiting for a fresh trend signal to initiate a trade, rather then jump into a trend mid-stream.  That is a personal trading preference and not necessarily the right or best course of action.  

I welcome other comments on this issue, whether it is best to wait for fresh signals, or to jump in any trend at any time, which is probably more consistent with the principle of trend following.



Reza said...

Thanks Allen

Anonymous said...

so much about the market right now seems to be in an 'in-between' zone.
some issues are at a test of the top,some are already pulling back,some ,like MGH (take a look) have broken out upside,
maybe depends on the sector,like MGH,a gold miner, did what I'm looking for the miners to do. pullback,hold,and take off .

In most issues,you see indicators on the weekly chart still showing a low side from the oversold of last month,with much room to keep moving upward.

BUT right now, most issues on the daily charts are overbought,and hesitating to keep going higher.

Thus, the in-between zone we seem to be in.

The Weekly and the Daily are not in harmony.

the 200 MA's and the 50 MA's are not consistent across the board.
Many issues show the 50 MA below the 200. many show the opposite. some are all joined at the same spot.

Many issues are showing a triangle formation coming to completion.

Are they bearish or bullish...I dont know.

Many issues show elliott wave ABC down completed feb 5,
BUT...also a current wave action that looks like wave 4 sideways,and waiting for one more leg down to complete the 5th wave.

Many issues are right now teetering along their 50 MA'a on the daily,looking like they want to hold and continue UP.
But their RSI and Stoch indicators are very overbought.

Its all such a mish mash of mixed signals.

and then,you find a stock like MGH,
from a few days ago...(once again I was one day too late in discovering it)

holding at the MA's, clearly waiting to blast off, and thats what it did today.

a blast up of almost 50% from its holding spot,2 days ago.

Anonymous said...


Your reminder request: Jan 14th write-up on GNVC

The 52 week high @ $3.34 was taken-out today!

A said...

Re: reminder

Thank you, it appears an update is now in order, I'll wake Allan


Anonymous said...