Wednesday, March 03, 2010

AVXL

Here is an example of the Trend Model flipping Long before an apparent  (pending, not yet realized) breakout:


AVXL Weekly Trend Model


A move above $3.00 would bring create a lot of open sky on the upside.  On the other hand, the stock is bumping up against massive 12-month's worth of resistance here.  You think this game is easy?  Call this one right.

A

5 comments:

Digger said...

Alan,

I think I understand how to compute the raw figure for this idea but are you adding/subtracting it from the close or the extreme high/low?
I have used a 21 day x 3 for a trailing stop but this is an interesting use.

Allan said...

Digger,

I really don't put my head under the skirt (or is it hood?) on these matters, let the code downloaded from the source do the math.

A

Anonymous said...

I just have this problem,about entering a stock after it breaks out on the top side....like this one AVXL ,yes youre right, if it breaks above 3.00 could fly. But the play feels like I'm chasing the stock. I much rather try and get in from the low side if possible. so if AVXL finishes this subwave 5 wave move here.... corrects in an ABC back to a nice fib ,maybe 50% at the 2.25 area and HOLDS.... I want to enter a buy at 2.25 support. if indicators support the idea.

Is that the wrong way to play something like this. ?
your comments much appreciated here.

Allan said...

There is nothing wrong with what you are suggesting and it could or even should work as good or better then my methods. Its a matter of temperament, which technique lends itself to your particular discipline to follow through and act decisively.

In other words, find something that works and......

Anonymous said...

....and trade it