Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Dollar for your thoughts?

 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
The investment seeks to track the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Futures index. The index is comprised solely of long futures contracts. The futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

UUP Weekly

UUP Daily

UUP 120 Minute, although it is also at times referred to as "Two-Hour"


Trends in the US Dollar are useful in anticipating trends and counter trends in other asset classes, such as stocks, gold and oil.  Robert Prechter's current market thesis is that all markets are slipping into a Grand Super-cycle bear market and since all assets are priced in dollars, that the dollar is in the early stages of a massive multi-year rally.  If so, the Weekly and to a lessor extent the Daily UUP Trend Models will catch most, if not all of it. The 120 minute model, which as you know is often referred to as a two-hour model, does a nice job of navigating around shorter-term trend changes. 

A



16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan,

Thanks for your observations of the dollar and your very comprehensive coverage of the major markets....S&P 500, Gold, Currencies, and Treasuries.

Great view of the big picture.

Anonymous said...

A 5yr chart of UUP will show support level lows at around the22.00 mark. Early Dec 09 we were sitting at that level. Look where the mark reached after each move off that support

Anonymous said...

Current wave action appears to be one of two things,
either the late stage near completion of an ABC (up) to reverse soon... or a wave 4 correction before another leg 'up' (wave 5) for UUP

combined with examination of the s+p chart,cycle wave examinations,and timing,

fits into a middling range,where theres like a calm before the storm,or the eye of the hurricane right now. maybe this is soon to be a decision point for the Master Engineers....do they rally the market back up now, as a 'further recovery' scheme.... or do they let market forces bring itself down to where it would go in this cycle, for another month or two, to the s+P 1040 area,or all the way to 935 area...before calling in the plunge protection team.

decisions decisions.

I plan to sell my long positions and expect a further slide, but not to the depths of collapse.not in one fell swoop anyway.

cycles .... first failure at the 1120 -1100 area, then failure at 1045 area then to 1000 then failure at 1070 area and failure at 1000 to 935. then......big rally to 1070-1000 ....and failure again.....that sort of thing.

tradable waves

Anonymous said...

OT: volume anemic today on nnvc

mike

Jeff said...

Allan,

I'm a current subscriber to your service, and I have a request. Can you add GS to your weekly trend models?

Allan said...

Jeff,

I guess I owe you a dollar now, eh?

A

Anonymous said...

Market Feel.

After a bottom at 1071,last friday,s+p rallied 2 days in a row followed by a mild(not powerful) move down today.

Since the rally move hit the magic 1100 mark and DID NOT propel hard down
but seems a bit 'sedate' in todays correcting energy... feels to me like one of two things happening
1) the bulls (and maybe the PPT ?) are having the stronger hand so far in this (2 week) wave cycle....

'panic' selling is not happening when 1104 was hit.
and isnt happening today so far,...(but it isnt 3 o'clock magic- sell off witching hour yet,so this report is early in that regard)

I expected a stronger down day today.

Maybe it will continue down tomorrow ,and if it does....suggests a "slowing down" of the market movement ,in this wave action.
BUT the rally of the last 2 days was 'not slow' it was quite strong and fast.

so we have fast/strong UP followed by slow subdued Down.

If this constitutes an ABC correcting cycle,I'm looking for s+p to hold /complete wave b down around the 1090-1083 area (1086) and take wave C to the 1110 -1120 area and Complete the correction.

Then elliott wave would ,I believe, suggest "bombs away" from there.
I would see a target of s+p completed bottom in the

935 area.

with steps along the way 1083
1096
1030
1045
1070
1000
1043
1000
and on down to 935

Anonymous said...

.... and the cycle timing would correlate to this down wave during the next 2 months thru ,late march early april zone.

whats happening now is a dead cat bounce correction to the 1100-1120 area
s+p 500

T said...

NNVC has been in a correcting mode since the last big push up....so that low volume right now,in the 1.00 area,and the fact price hasnt falled thru the 90's into the 80's,and that it has held pretty steady after the Market Turn down since january 11,.... is a very good sign.

Anonymous said...

I'm still of the studied opinion,that THIS YEAR ,the Main objective of the Master Engineers of the Game, will be to STABILIZE the markets.

Such that ,rather than see catastrophic wave 3 down,we will see a Range Zone of ABC zig zag flat waves ,that wont see the march 2009 bottom, but will be a Range Zone between the JULY bottom and the ....take your pick of tops....October ? something like an S+P Range between 1150 and 950
or 1100 and 900
with 1000 and 1100 as the happy comfort zone.

"Sheeple,NO Panic"

t said...

Last post of the day for me


Watch ISCO in the next 2 days.

Ive been watching it closely this week(well, the last 6 weeks)

Wave and fib action is doing exactly what I expected.

hitting the key fib levels and s/r points. today moved back up to hit the 1.66 point

If you look at the chart ,thats a key price point.
I expect a down turn correction to the next low point for this current correction...somewhere in the 1.20 zone. fib and s/r and trendline points would be 1.25 down to 1.10
1.17 is also a key price point.

If this CEO press /news announcement on friday at 7 am EST. means anything from a forecasting standpoint,, AND the wave ,fib,s/r and trendline action coincides to a correction to the 1.17 area by late thursday.... it might be a good place to enter a long investment in ISCO.

This is not advice,just looking at the data.as it evolves.

t said...

....I should have said
"if this price action coincides to a correction to the 1.17 area ...BETWEEN... Now and late thursday. tomorrow as a down day into late thursday...and price moves down to the 1.17 area

I.E. not just waiting for late thursday... but watching price movement down to the good entry point.
between now and then. ok
done

t said...

...and just to alert folks who might be interested in ISCO.... looking at the chart dont Fail to SEE that enormous spike sell down the other day that blasted price down from 1.60 to 1.00 in exactly 1 MINUTE.
then went right back up to 1.60

WOW.

Which of course means that IF we buy this stock (or probably any others like it -speculative play)

its DANGEROUS TO SET A STOP ANYWHERE.

am I right about that?

NO stops on this one. would be the way I'm playing it.

Jeff said...

You know what they say about great minds.

The quick feedback is greatly appreciated :)

Anonymous said...

Nat Gas & US$ correlation

UNG as longer term trend hedge against rising dollar affect upon gold portfolio ?

Anonymous said...

Nat Gas vs. UNG

UNG has been very off for a few months from price action in Nat Gas futures. ???