Friday, February 05, 2010

TZA Daily Model Trade Analysis

Below is my TZA Daily Trend Model.  There have been a lot of questions about how best to trade these models and the truth is, there is no one right way to trade these models.  There are several alternatives, three of them suggested beneath the chart.

TZA Daily Trend Model

BUY SIGNAL: January 21, 2010 @ 9.32
Current Price: 11.38
Return:       22.1%

BUY at End-of-Day Jan 21st @ 9.46
Return:   20.3%

BUY at NEXT OPEN Jan 22nd @ 9.51
Return:  19.7%



Anonymous said...

TZA has been a great trading vehicle.
Has stayed on trend without whip.

Perhaps its too much to ask but......

Too bad there wasn't a filter to choose vehicles that go up and down in smooth waves all the time :-)


Anonymous said...

you spoke too soon dude...we just got robbed

Anonymous said...

Allan what I have been confused about is the interplay of the etf's with the spx symbols. There is definitely an art to this. For example, I was long TZA and then went long TNA on the SPX flip. That turned out to be a bad trade as the SPX flipped short again and I closed the TNA trade at yesterdays close and went back into TZA. If I would have just followed the TZA model I would have never had closed the TZA trade. Does your backtesting show any appreciable differences in following the SPX model vs. the ETF's? And why would the ETF's still stay long when the SPX model flipped short? Something doesn't seem right?


Allan said...


What my data shows is that over the long run, it doesn't matter if you use the SPX, SPY, or the individual ETF models. Any particular series, lasting a few days or even a few weeks, will make one strategy look better then the other, only to reverse course in the next few days or few weeks. The mantra here is to be consistent and disciplined. We are looking for outsized annual returns, not the highest and best returns for any particular short-term period.


Anonymous said...

looks like TZA is completing a clear 5 wave move. Suggesting a correction soon. looks like back to 10 area