Sunday, February 21, 2010

CSIQ

 "Allan,
   I notice csiq had some bad news. I wonder if you think it a good contender for the short list....Jeff"
Feb 19 (Reuters) - Chinese solar-cell maker Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ.O) cut its fourth-quarter gross margin view citing faulty equipment and a dip in prices, sending its shares down as much as 17 percent.
First of all, thanks Jeff for your email this morning and the idea for this post.

Below is my CSIQ 240 minute Trend Model chart, revealing a SELL SIGNAL generated on Thursday, February 18th when CSIQ broke and closed below 23.98, a pivot that was identified ahead of time as the reversal threshold from the previous LONG (generated Fen 11th @ 21.68).

CSIQ 240 minute Trend Model


But note how the Daily Model didn't flip SHORT until after the news hit:



In full disclosure, I don't follow CSIQ  in my nightly stock tables (although maybe I should), but here is a prime example of how the trend changed before the news hit.  Speaking of which, here is a close-up view of the CSIQ Weekly Model:

CSIQ Weekly Trend Model

An expanded Weekly Model below reveals the following Weekly Trend Signals going back about two years:
Buy week of 3/31/08 @ 21.50
Sell week of 6/30/08 @ 31.98
Buy week of 3/23/09 @  5.76
Sell week of 7/6/09   @  9.82
Buy week of 7/13/09 @ 13.90
Sell week of 1/11/10 @ 25.93



My new idea is to scan charts just before or just after the daily/weekly close for opportunities like CSIQ, including time frames like 240 minutes (about 1/2 day) and send out a list of these trade opportunities to subscribers.  This would be in addition to the usual trade suspects I follow each day.  This would also be a lot more work, but, Do what you love, or love what you do, both of which apply here (as if you didn't already suspect that was true for me).  

A

7 comments:

T said...

UPWRF UPDATE

Since I recommended it about 6 or so weeks ago.....UPWRF has

TRIPLED


too bad folks missed it .

Allan said...

T,

It was a great pick, price appreciation wise, but when I looked at it's trading profile, I saw many days when UPWRF had zero volume and even more where volume was under 10K shares a day. That is not suitable for most accounts. Still, nice call.

A

t said...

thx, A.

I guess the 'low volume' wasnt so much a factor for me,given the fundamental story....a "Tupi sized" oil field offshore Namibia,under the radar,ready to be realized.
the timing was good for it.

But now,a central theme /issue in coming weeks and months is what will stocks do IF market dives down as EWI expects. Will any stocks hold up in such a market?
Like this one,UPWRF,or GNVC,NNVC,etc...??

Will Precious metal miners hold up and recover faster,as they did in 2008?
will spot gold hold up stronger this time?

What IS the 'new normal' market that was recreated last year by the wall street take over of government?
Do they have enough power to keep any market movements under control?

I have to wonder IF there has been a .... reset button pushed by the government last year....

which just might render the 'old market parameters' ....irrelevant .
or somehow "altered" so significantly that classic elliott wave analysis,charted from 10 years ago,or 80 years ago to the present...is altered now.
like its been reset.

reset to whatever the government wants to create and engineer.

Such a completely rigged game that has to be examined in this light.

I just keep wondering.

I dont believe the market crashed in 2008 because of natural social conditions that classic elliott wave illustrates.
I believe the market crashed because the government engineers did it intentionally.
in order to take control of the market and the financial systems,and combine government with wall street banking systems.

to destroy whatever was left of old 'free market' systems...and create a government controlled market system.

If there is logic in this thinking, then one of the 'tasks' at hand for this year,as well as last year is to "make the markets Appear to be real",to follow elliott waves up to a point,follow the standard fibs and indicators,make it look similar to the way it always was,so that people....sheeple, dont get suspicious that the game is totally rigged now.
and is no different that going to the casino.

This is all theory on my part,based on bits and pieces of evidence presented by people like zero hedge, and others.
If the government has been kind enough to give us a few clues from time to time, one of those clues was the coining of that term...."the new normal"

What do they mean by it? ...deserves to be examined.

Even back in the 1930's FDR said "nothing in politics happens by chance.If it happened ,it was planned."

Imagine how much more true that is Today with the super computers and complete government control of the system.

There may be some clever ways to still make money in the new normal stock market.

I hope that finding those rare homerun stocks, in the right sector,at the right time, under the radar,with good stories and fundamentals,etc...like NNVC,and UPWRF,stem cell,and the next golden hula hoop that cures cancer,or whatever,can be 'immune' to any collapsing economy .

I guess only time will tell.maybe wont have to wait very long to find out.

Anonymous said...

Hi Mr.T

I have posted here asking for your view on ISCO.
You answered saying that you would give me more details if I included my e-mail address.
If the offer still stands, I would be interested in your take on this stock.

Thanks

trader-2@hotmail.com

t said...

Hi Trader 2...If you go back and find our posts about ISCO I believe I did respond to you in this blog spot,about as much as I was able. see if you can find it.
Basically,ISCO was the star stem cell player recommended by patrick cox in his newsletter...Allan posted something about it here a while back. I jumped on it, and got lucky.
Now its a matter of watching the chart and waiting for the best pullback you can get and try to get the best price on it.
like what folks would do with NNVC or UPWRF or GNVC, etc...

the chart with fibs,and MA's would show you what to hope for in terms of price to enter.

Looking now at ISCO 's chart,daily and weekly.....I see overbought now,pulling back, with potential to return to the 1.00 area and possibly the .80 area.

strategy wise....logic might enter a 1/2 position at 1.00 and wait to see if it drops further to the .80 area and buy the other 1/2 there.

something like that.

my own personal timing cycle indicator waits for the full moon zone and new moon zone to look for the reversal energy to trigger.
If price hits key s/r and fibs and wave completions,etc.... thats when I consider entering and exiting trades.

with NNVC as a recent example,I was watching for the timing of full moon and a price area of .89 -.85.

It went -- full moon and .90 ....and then it reversed Upward to the current position.

the next full moon zone is this friday feb 26 thru wed.march 3. March 1 feels about right to me. friday the 26th could be "too soon".

All this is strictly in the "For what its worth" category....because this is just my own thoughts about how I trade....and is a bit removed from Allan's program. He's generous enough to let me post my comments but
I want to stay focused on what he does here.

In this down turning market,there's not many issues I would consider buying long...but ISCO, NNVC,GNVC,UPWRF,TRGL,JINFF,
CYTX,BTIM,I'm watching closely currently,

and select Miners,and Bakken oil stocks are the ones Ill keep my eye on
...if they drop to the sept 2 low,august 17,2009 low,june 3 2009 top,or july 2009 low.

t said...

Of the stocks I mentioned...the only one thats in the zone for an ok entry price right now is TRGL at the 8.60 area.
Looking at the chart one can see that a further dip to the 7.70 area is possible. but between there and 8.60 isnt half bad.

TRGL is the oil exploration company which owns the oil rights to the mega million barrels of oil underneath Paris ,France.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Mr. T