Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Lie to me

SPX 240 minute with Fibonacci retracement levels

My take on this chart:  A corrective uptrend has asserted itself and it is approaching the 50-61.8% retracement levels that typically reverse prices and allow the dominant trend to re-assert itself.  As my email subscribers know, we respect the trend, whichever way it is headed.  For now, it is headed higher, but there are reasons to suspect that will change before too many more points are put behind this market.   We know where the Weekly Trend turns up, that will change everything.  But we also know where the Daily Trend will turn down and that too will change everything.  Thus, we wait.  Waiting for everything to change.  And it will......



Anonymous said...

it's a shame Allan hasn't noticed NNVC performance today. +18%

Anonymous said...

Maybe he's not watching it every day.

Anonymous said...

hey ...thats right. NNVC
18 %

but I'm not thrilled anymore when it pops.
I expect it now.

I was forecasting a bottom at .89 (.89 - .85 area)

It hit .90

not sure I woulda bought 90since I was looking for 85.

I miss a few like that.

in any case. the chart I studied for the forecast,has a 'next target top' of around 1.35-1.40 area
for what itz worth.

.............................my own market outlook now
after tuesdays ("is this the new normal?") blast up

I think its completed (or soon to be) NOT the whole ABC correction but only the FIRST leg of ABC....wave A
expecting wave B down to test the critical s/r points at 1080-1060 (1070 )

a complete retrace to double bottom the 1044 is not impossible. But I'm looking for some kind of support holding up 1062-1070 area,or at least watching those points closely.

but wave action is coming down sooner or later.

IF my guess is correct,and a larger ABC is playing out,I would anticipate wave B to hold around the 1065 area,followed by wave C back to target the 1110 -1115 area.

IF this price action becomes the completion of the ABC correction ,then
I anticipate a plunging 5 waves to 990 area...in the manner similar to the january drop from 1150 to 1044.

a most unpleasant market for the panicking sheeple.

I believe the "new normal" market brought to you by the magical plunge protection team and the wizards of wall street..... do NOT want the market to be collapsing right now in this way.
which begets the idea that partly sunny partly cloudy semi blue skies will be provided,so sheeple no panic.
easy does it sheeple.

believe in our green shoots . look what we gave you tuesday. watch how we keep it under control wednesday and thursday.
watch out after hours load up,like a shot of heroin for the market.
dont jump off the magic bus.trust the new normal.

we're new and improved for 2010.

we love our sheeple.

Anonymous said...

Allan will post later in few days when NNVC penetrate the $2 hopefully in the coming days

Lou said...

The S&P hourlies finished forming a nice wide channel on the opening surge. We're heading down from here.

Anonymous said...

I agree . down.

but the question is how far and in what kind of wave pattern.
what s/r will hold or break.