Tuesday, February 02, 2010

SPX Hourly

This is my SPX Hourly Trend Following Model.  Yesterday morning it triggered LONG @ 1082.68 and one day later is up close to 15 S&P points on the signal.

SPX Hourly

I personally was smarter then the model and decided to sit out this dubious Buy Signal.  But as is so often the case, the cold-blooded, objective, non-emotional and ego-less algorithm is laughing all the way to the bank.  Sigh.........



Anonymous said...

check UNG ... nat gas

Anonymous said...

its my beautiful plunge protection team....

to the rescue.

just wait for the first hard resistance anywhere at 1100,1104,etc.

but then that might only be wave A completing
I would see wave B back to the 1083 area.

and then wave C back to whatever failure point they have in store to allow the market.

I'll be happy to close my longs anywhere at the 1100 area. dont need the C wave next week.

Anonymous said...

LOL on your comment Allan.

Anonymous said...

Even the master falls prey to second - guessing signals sometime !

Don't give the devil time of day :-)


Anonymous said...

* * * DECONSTRUCTING ALLAN'S decided to sit out this dubious Buy Signal. * * *

. . . Some of the more extreme visions of the postindustrial society are those related to the theory of the technological singularity. This theory refers to a predicted point or period in the development of a civilization at which due to the acceleration of technological progress, the societal, scientific and economic change is so rapid that nothing beyond that time can be reliably comprehended, understood or predicted by the pre-Singularity humans.

chart: countdown to singularity

ponder the above in light of high frequency trading (HFT) and infinite central bank intervention (e.g., FEDReserve -- Fannie & Freddie) as well as infinite extrapolation (OTC derivatives).

this implies the markets will reach a singularity point where any rational basis (e.g., technical analysis, fundamental analysis, algos, etc.) will be useless.

we are approaching that that point now heading into 2012, which is the proverbial eye-of-hurricane. Thus, this year we should experience "glitches", déjà vu, jamais vu, and perhaps, for some, voices & visions while trading.

in the following Kenny Rogers' song, the silence (white space) is used significantly both for sound texture as well as semantic punctuation: Ruby. One should learn to recognize and appreciate how non-content and non-sense can be also meaningful and purposeful.

so, when you pause and don't know why or quite what to do, that in and of itself is content; meaningful.

Allan's "dubious buy signal" is an example of a glitch-in-the-matrix (market/system) or white-space (traderself/system). ... this discontinuity in an otherwise almost worshiped system is cause for learning a lesson.

The lesson might be to better acquaint, what John Henry Newman called, one's own "Illative Sense".

The Illative sense is for Newman, the intellectual counterpart of Aristotle's Phroenesis (i.e., practical knowledge, e.g., technical trading). It is the faculty of the human mind that closes the logic-gap in concrete situations and thus allowing for assent. Logic/formal inference utilizes dependable processes that lead to a certain and firm conclusion in the fields in which it is applied. However, Newman maintained that in concrete life formal incontrovertible proof in favor of a decision is not possible—the best one can achieve is converging probabilities in favor of a conclusion. For Newman it is impossible to attain the concrete existential equivalent of logical certainty. Thus, to close that gap between converging probabilities and full assent, we need the aid of the Illative Sense in order to attain certitude in specific situations.

Allan could contemplate why exactly he did not assent to his system this time. The answer might be less about the event itself, then insightful about the coming days, weeks months and year or two.

teach me to dance - Zorba the Greek

[if none of the above makes sense, it is because it is written in such a way that requires contemplation and relation to own's own experience & etc. I.e., it is not spoon-fed.]

Anonymous said...

....Interesting discourse....written in a pretentiously highbrow,unnecessarily, not to inspire contemplation but to just show off cause it sounds smart.

lets translate in common kings english.

ITS ALL A RIGGED MANIPULATED GAME CONTROLLED BY THE MASTER POWER ELITE CENTRAL BANK BILDERBERG ROTHSCHILD GLOBAL POWER STRUCTURE THAT HAS ... been carrying out a MASTER PLAN to own and control the whole world since amshel envisioned it in 1800 alongside the BRITISH EMPIRE as it was envisioning the loss of their new colony(USA) ....and so this GREAT WAR, which became a GREAT ECONOMIC WAR....between the USA and the BRITISH/ROTHSCHILD(which morphed into 'zionist') EMPIRE

which finally ,after assainating a few presidents who fought back, and winning the most critical battle of ESTABLISHING THE ROTHSCHILD CENTRAL BANK IN THE USA(FED) ....has proceeded to own,and control the ENTIRE USA....really since 1913.

and has KEPT IT SECRET FROM the american people until the advent of THE INTERNET.
Now the people know what its all about. the 10 % of people who get their news from the internet. the other 90% are still sleepwalking.
When the percent of citizens who 'learn the truth' gets to be around 25%... The Masters of Control will SHUT DOWN THE INTERNET'S NEWS SHARING FREEDOMS....but keep open the commerce aspects.

Lets see ,what else. Thats about it really....

Imagine ....just meditate on this for a minute.

Imagine, it has taken the american people .... 200 years...just about the entire duration of the life of this 'experiment in government'

to learn a glimpse of the true reality behind the scenes, the true power structure of the Master Controllers.


what else is left to own....
try to own china,russia and whats left of the world....

own water and land and ALL food seeds. DONT WORRY, MONSANTO IS WORKING ON THAT.

the only small glitch so far is the collapse of the cap and trade scam at copenhagen from the climate gate email disclosure.