Monday, April 20, 2009

Treasury Says ‘No Basis’ to Report on Bank Testing

Treasury Says ‘No Basis’ to Report on Bank Testing

By Vincent Del Giudice and Nick Baker

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. Treasury spokesman said there’s no basis to a blog posting that buffeted financial stocks by saying that most of the nation’s largest banks are insolvent.

Andrew Williams, a Treasury spokesman, dismissed the report from Hal Turner of North Bergen, New Jersey, “particularly given we don’t have stress test results yet.



Does anyone believe that they don't have results, or what they later will call "Preliminary Results" of these stress tests? Or that they will tweak parameters until they get the "results" they want?

What sayeth the markets?



Today's SKF (ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS)
including the 3 hours after Treasury statement above



I can't find the Treasury's denial reflected on that chart, can you?



A



12 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have FAZ since it is at 15 bucks, would it get there this go around ???

Allan said...

I bought calls on FAZ early in the session, looking for a lot more then $15 on it. Remember FAZ was over $100 six short weeks ago.

Anonymous said...

Allan, what more do you have to see before you can tell if this down move is the beginning of the big one ...

Allan said...

It's going to take convincing evidence that the decline is not just a retracement of the previous advance, but is something more sinister. There are numerous "tells" that I am looking at, including the very structure of the decline itself, especially in relation to the previous upswing. Any S&P move below 780 will have my radar up and on guard. Under 750, it will become hard to argue anything but a severe decline is underway.

abot said...

both fas and faz were above $50 a few monthe ago. Both below ten a few days ago. Beware on holding these equity destroyers for long..

PENN STATE Eric said...

Regardless of whether Turners report holds any weight itself the speculation alone is causing a downturn and as we all know speculation unfortunately often carries much weight. Turner was pretty specific with his numbers too which is concerning. I wouldn't doubt that some (just some) of it may be true as insiders who are also having to hold back on the stress tests and their knowledge of the facts may be getting antsy and really leaked something out of posterity for the economy in general as well astheir own situations.

They still haven't reported anything, which if the results were positive they would be pushing in our faces every chance they get, they have to sell confidence back to Americans. Consumer confidence is a huge driver. 70% of GDP is consumer driven so lacking the confidence and ability to spend hurts big time.

Anonymous said...

Here's your chance Alan. The drop you and all the other Bears have been salivating over !

Anonymous said...

Hey Allan. I enjoy your blog but Hal Turner is a little off the deep end. What basis do you believe his stress test results are not just hot air?? Thanks

Anonymous said...

"I bought calls on FAZ early in the session, looking for a lot more then $15 on it."
It is important to know from you what more than $15 do u expect for FAZ?
just arough figure
thx
serge

Allan said...

serge: i expect faz to explode back up toward $40, maybe double that. Here's the rub, it can break 11.00 first, or even 10. This is a trader's market, a trading paradise. It's ok to buy and hold faz, but be prepared for some drawdowns along the way.

Allan said...

re: stress test chit

why does the treasury respond to a extremist kook's blog?

still working on the answer.

Anonymous said...

RE: re: stress test chit

why does the treasury respond to a extremist kook's blog?


Excellent question. Yesterday our Tax-challenged Treasury secretary said 'most" banks were okay but that could mean anything. Did he say most of the 19 under the stress test? Most could be 10 where 9 are failing.