Sunday, April 26, 2009

Swine flu basket

As some readers have pointed out, a few years ago we did very well with a basket of bird flu stocks during the worldwide bird flu threat. The difference this time is that swine flu is more of a fact then a threat. The link above to my March, 2006 post listing all the stocks in the bird flu basket is one source of ideas for swine flu stocks. I've taken just three of those stocks to put in the swine flu basket, focusing on what I believe are the three single best ideas. These stocks, among others, are low priced and all have the real potential for triple digit returns in the tumultuous times ahead.


You all know by now my first pick, NNVC, it is perhaps the only one that you need as it is placed in a sweet spot of treatment, they don't produce vaccines, they produce functional cures.

Above is a one year Weekly chart of NNVC. As I wrote yesterday at the Anti-Cramer site, this stock is pennies away from a major break-out. I expect it to open well above the $0.83 break-out level on Monday.


The second stock for consideration is NVAX. This stock treated us very well as part of the avian flu basket of stocks and based on Friday's price action, just shy of a double in one day, it is already running:

NVAX was an $8 stock at the height of the bird flu run, a $16 dollar stock in 2002. One or both of these former high levels could get taken out.

Sinovac Biotech

Below is a description, then a chart of the third swine flu basket stock, SVA.

Sinovac Biotech, Ltd., a biopharmaceutical company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of vaccines that protect against human infectious diseases primarily in the People's Republic of China. It offers Healive, a vaccine for hepatitis A; Bilive, a combined hepatitis A and B vaccine; and Anflu, a split virus influenza vaccine. The company also develops vaccines for the H5N1 strain of pandemic influenza virus that are in Phase I and Phase II clinical trials; a vaccine for the Japanese encephalitis virus, which is in pre-clinical development stage; and a vaccine for the SARS virus that has completed a Phase I clinical trial. Sinovac Biotech markets and sells its vaccine products primarily through various provincial and municipal centers for disease control. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

During the bird flu scare, SVA hit $9.50. The EW chart above is suggesting $3.50 for its initial run, but that could wind up being only Wave 1 of a Primary degree five wave advance, taking out it's old high.

You are welcome to add to this basket of three stocks any stocks that you think belong. If you do, feel free to share your ideas in Comments. Please keep in mind that during the 2005-2006 bird flu scare, the stock market was still in a major up phase. This time is different, the market is in a major down phase. I would be much more aggressive in taking profits on partial positions as these stocks pop with the news.



Anonymous said...

Allan, Two more for your consideration.

BCRX Biocryst Pharma Develops drugs that block enzymes in various diseases. Up .46 to 2.21. Was at 20.75 in 2006.

AVII AVI Biopharm RNA based antiviral research. Up .15 to .89.
Was $8 in 2006.


Doug in ATL

Anonymous said...

OOPS! Didn't see these were listed
in link at begining of post, sorry.
Just wanted to contribute to the blog. Doug in ATL

Anonymous said...

Hey Allan,

NYC streetfighter here.

Got 500 to 1000 share some odd limit orders placed all the way up into the $10 range. Anybody short NNVC at this moment in time needs to pray for a Sunday night heart attack, as the real one will occur Monday morning, 9:30 est.

Warmest regards, Joe/NYC

cassandra said... is in the progress of choosing some of the top blogs(which have adequate information) to receive recognition from as a Featured Blogger. This award is not meant to be anything other than a recognition that your blog gives adequate information about tactics that directly or in directly raise disease awareness and prevent the transmission of Disease. Simply place the award banner code on your site and your blog will be listed as a Featured Blogger on Flu Wikie is a Private Global Health Watch Group, whose goal is to promote healthy living though the spread of FREE information globally. Thank you for your time and dedication to your blog! Please reply me back with the subject line as your URL to avoid spam and to make sure that you only get the award banner.

If your Believe in our Goal of Global Health Text link to use for your readers.

Text Link: FluWikie Url:

Anonymous said...

It was extremely interesting for me to read the post. Thanks the author for it. I like such topics and everything that is connected to this matter. I would like to read more soon.

Best wishes