Sunday, April 26, 2009

Swine flu basket - II

Two more stellar looking charts, courtesy of Doug from my old stomping grounds, Atlanta:

AVI Biopharma

AVI BioPharma, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of therapeutic products based on antisense and cancer immunotherapy technology. The company's products under various development stages comprise AVI-4658, a Phase I human clinical trial product to restore, prevent, or slow deterioration of muscle function; AVI-5038, a preclinical stage product to skip exon 50 and restore a range of associated mutations; AVI-5126, a Phase II clinical trial product for the treatment of cardiovascular restenosis; and AVI-6002 and AVI-6003, which are in Phase I clinical trials to treat diseases caused by Dengue, Ebola, Marburg, and Junín viruses. It has strategic alliances with Chiron Corporation; Cook Group Incorporated; Ercole Biotech, Inc.; Eleos Inc.; Charley's Fund, Inc.; and the United States Department of Defense. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Corvallis, Oregon.

AVII is already on the run, targeting $1.60 but poised to go a lot higher. This was a $25 stock back in 2000, when flu was still a three letter word.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals

All these charts are beginning to look the same, the start of impulsive up moves, a perfect storm for traders like us. BCRX has some strong fundamentals to go along with all of the above:

That brings us to five stocks to start off the Swine Flu Basket. Here they are listed along with respective market caps and share prices as of Friday's close:

NNVC $98M.....$0.80

NVAX $98M.....$1.42

SVA $84M......$1.97

AVII $76M.....$0.89

BRCX $85M.....$2.26



Anonymous said...

if one does not have s position in any of the stocks, what is the best way to establish a position ???

Anonymous said...

Allan, besides the 5 you mention, you can also include these 5 for swine flu


Allan said...

Re: Establishing initial position

Judging from the news this weekend, every one of these plays will be popping on the open. Buy some as soon as you can, then buy some more on a pullback, if there is one. Worst case, you have fewer shares then you wanted, but it's flying off of the shelf. Not bad for a worst case scenario, especially if you spread it over five stocks.

Allan said...

S&P Futures are down 10 points on overnight trading, no panic, not yet.....

mlomker said...

>S&P Futures are down 10 points on overnight trading

I don't think it is related to the flu but I shorted in all of my accounts on Friday @863-865. It looked like a wave 2 peak on the indexes to me. Even if I'm wrong it was a tight stop @873.

I'm targeting 800 as a partial exit.

Allan said...

I've got my trading platform up now, just to keep track of the futures without the delay. Down 13.75, 1.5 points off of the lows, so far.

Wayne said...

Hey Allan,

Although it's apparently too late to contain the virus, it would seem logical that extra caution be taken if living on the US-Mexico border esp. with the large # of reported deaths. Is anything being done in AZ (you live there right?)


Wayne said...

Also fyi, here are a couple of useful websites for tracking the spread of the flu:

From there is a link to a great visual tracking aid:

To the left of that map you can use the checkboxes to customize whatever diseases you want to track.


Allan said...

Wayne, no confirmed cases in Arizona yet. But the local baseball team beat the SF Giants today, seems like the Giants may have some kind of bug as the locals haven't been able to beat anyone else.

Allan said...

Over 1500 hits on my Blog today, that's more then double the normal hits for a weekend, whether I post or not. I think this bodes well for swine flu stocks tomorrow, a microcosm of public interest and maybe panic buying.

Anonymous said...

Busy weekend at Sam's Wholesale Club, 8 trips back and forth with the pick up fully loaded with provisions just in case this turns out to be the real thing. Overall shoppers seemed unconcerned, just doing regular shopping. I hope I turn out to be chicken little here. Good luck to all and especially you Allan. Joe/NYC

Allan said...

S&P futures hitting session lows, now down 15.5 points.

Anonymous said...

Allan, TY for your updates, TY for getting me prepared. I am long FAZ and very long NNVC. I couldn't be better prepared for the open!!! Warm regards, Joe/NYC

Anonymous said...

It's like I said. Big pump.

Anonymous said...

In the big run up I bought in at 60c thanks to Allan's tip, put a 5% trail on it and got stopped out at 90. Got back in at 1.50 , got greedy at 3 when Allan suggested it might go to 10 and I tripled up. I'm still holding 3yrs? later at an average of 1.08. Just information for those interested.

Anonymous said...

I thought you said NNVC would be $3.00 by now. What happened?
Is this sled ever going to move up.
"Down" I'm very familiar with.