Thursday, April 23, 2009

Daily Nasdaq 100

Below is a Daily chart of the same Nasdaq 100 previously shown in the Weekly chart:

Noteworthy is the trend line coming down from the Wave 2 Top in August, 2008. This stopped the Wave 4 rally cold last week at about 1362. It is a powerful resistance line and prices should not exceed it if the analysis on the chart of a Wave 4 turning into Wave 5 is correct. "Exceed" means moves above and stay's above the line.

The Nasdaq is set to open up higher today on the strength of Apple's earnings. Expect the line to be tested and be prepared to give it a Pass/Fail grade soon thereafter.



Dave said...

Allan, what's your opinion of Sullivan? Latest from MarketWatch...

Why did Dan Sullivan turn (moderately) bullish? We won't know details until next week. But he's not budging.
Sullivan edits The Chartist and The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter. Both went 50% invested in April 14 hotlines, their first equity exposure in 15 months. Both stayed that way last night, despite the down day.
Sullivan promises more details in his monthly letters, due next week. But he gave a hint: He says he will also discuss the "history of the Advance/ Decline line."
The A/D line is a celebrated technical tool that gauges market momentum by weighing stocks that increase and decrease in price. In Sullivan's last issue of The Chartist, he cited both the Advance/Decline line and Upside Volume -- the volume traded in stocks that increase in price -- as evidence that what he regarded as a bear market rally had further to go.
"Near term, we anticipate the market moving higher. But looking further out, a subsequent test of the March lows is a distinct possibility," he said.
Presumably, Sullivan has decided further strengthening in these indicators mean that the rally is reliable -- perhaps even a new bull market.
Sullivan is a veteran -- one of a group of editors I call the "geezers" because they (like me) were around at the last bear market bottom in 1974. ( See Oct 17, 2005 column.)
His basic focus is relative strength -- that is, he assumes strong stocks will continue to be strong. And he has developed various proprietary methods of extrapolating from individual stocks to the overall market. ( See March 19, 2007 column.)
It's worked pretty well for him
Over year to date through March, both Sullivan letters are up just 0.1% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, which is definitely better than negative 10.56% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index.
Over the past 12 months, both lost significantly less (negative 10.86% and negative 0.37%, respectively) than the memorable negative 37.96% scored by the total return Wilshire.
Over the past three years, the letter has achieved an annualized gain, versus a negative 13.33% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000. Over the past five years, the Chartist and the Chartist Mutual Fund Letter respectively achieved a 4.06% and 6.22% annualized gain, compared to a negative 4.35% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000.
Recently, Sullivan soliloquized about his investment philosophy:
"Remember, bear market rallies are violent. In fact, some of the greatest stock market rallies of all time have taken place in bear markets. ... In most bear markets there are many rallies that can be significant and look like the real thing, but often times they fail with the averages making new lows. That is why we patiently wait for our key indicators to turn positive before we are willing to risk our own money. ... Our objective is to be in the market for a major portion of the market rise and out of the market for a major portion of its decline. ... With our strategy, it's just as important to be in money market funds during bearish phases as it is to be in equity funds during bullish phases."

Allan said...

Sullivan is a veteran -- one of a group of editors I call the "geezers" because they (like me) were around at the last bear market bottom in 1974.The last bottom of comparable size, i.e. a "Grand Supercycle" bear market, was 300 years ago in the 1700's. Let's find someone who was around back then and ask him, or her, for a forecast.

Anonymous said...

Allan, I was there 300 years ago, but I don't remember a damn thing any more ...

Anonymous said...

Allan, what's up with NNVC? I thought yesterday was a jackpot PR!!

Allan said...

This was posted yesterday, read it carefully, there is an enormous amount of information here:

From Yahoo, Overview of EKC studies:

1:45 Effect of Topical Nanoviricides on Rabbit Model of EKC

Vivien Boniuk, M.D., Associate Professor, Department of Ophthalmology & Visual
Sciences, Albert Einstein Medical Center

PURPOSE: To Evaluate Effects of Topical Nanoviricides on Rabbit Model of EKC METHODS: Utilizing EKC rabbit model described by YJ Gordon et al,12 female New Zealand Rabbits were inoculated topically and intrastromally with Adenovirus Type 5, under the operating microscope under anesthesia. All 12 rabbits had procedures performed on both eyesrabbit # 12 received BSS instead of virus. After 15 hours all animals except Group D received 2 drops to both eyes 50ul per drop twice a day for 10 days in a blinded manner. Group D received no drops at all. There were 12 rabbits in 4 groups: GroupA vehicle control Group B NNVC B Group C NNVC C and Group D. Swabs were taken pre-inoculatiomn, at 3 hours after viral adsorption and at days 3,6,9, and 21 as well as at sacrifice Day 37. Blood samples were taken pre-inoculation and Days 9, 21, and 37, spun down and frozen at -70 degrees. Rabbits were monitored daily 1-10 and days 21 and 37 graded 0-4 for conjunctival injection, blepharitis and corneal subepithelial infilatrates by 2 observers. RESULTS: There were higher clinical scores for conjunctival injection and blepharitis in Group A than in Groups NNVC B and NNVC C. The two infected untreated rabbits in Group D were similar to Group A. The sham infected rabbit in Group D had mild initial reaction, did not develop clinical disease and had no SEI''s. Conjunctivitis and blepharitis scores were still elevated in Group A at Day 10, but in both B & C had returned to baseline. SEI''s were not detected until Day 21 in a few instances. By Day 37 sacrifice 83% of eyes in Control Group A had SEI''s, none of NNVCB Group and 50% of NNVC C Group had SEI''s. In D Group, 100% of untreated eyes had SEI''s and 0/2 of the sham-inoculated eyes had SEI''s. CONCLUSIONS: In rabbit experimental model of EKC, NNVC B showed significant effect in mitigating clinical and immune response of EKC and NNVC C showed lesser effect.

"Conjunctivitis and blepharitis scores were still elevated in Group A at Day 10, but in both B & C had returned to baseline". Looks like a ten day baseline to baseline cure. Outstanding IMO.

Results like this have never been seen before. We are into unknown super positive results that will leave the medical professions gasping, IMHO.

I believe that Dr. Vivien Boniuk was instrumental (via initial presentaion & follow-up conversation with Big Pharma) moving Big Pharma off the dime to sign the MTA with NNVC.

Dr. Seymour told me yesterday via email that a formal overview PR should be released in a few days.

Anonymous said...

Well another day in the NNVC hole.A real money it.

Is there a product called "NNVC-Cide"? or "AllAllan-Cide"? THOSE would be be useful. Put NNVC on developing THOSE vaccines.

Stocks are flat. Glad you are a solid

Let's hear it for Allan! At least he is lowering my ax bill.


Anonymous said...

Harper, what is the deal with you ...

Anonymous said...

Actually, I am a HUGE fan of Allan's and just giving him a hard time for fun.I hope he was not offended.

I've been following this blog for 1.5 years and have not cleaned up but am doing better that I was.

No offense Allan. Your hockey team sucks but this is one great blog.


Ariel said...

I thought that the prior SuperCycle wave (II) was back around the 1837-1847 time frame?? well I'm not 100% certain, would have to go look at those pages in EWP book anyway. But I digress - came on here to say, nice work on the NDX there! Also, Friday's movement tested the .786 retrace back to 1470.99 (late Oct. high), may be significant level for potential reversal. If the 4th wave can be a flat, then there are numbers just a wee bit higher, about 1388/1409 (not to mention the 200 dsma ~1398).

Ariel said...

So yesterday, Nasdaq 100 got to the 1388, and today futures above the 200 dsma about 1398, as well as 200-month MA, and looking set to get to the alternate 1409 level for a flat's wave c that may complete the NDX wave 4 idea. Pokes over your channel line but that happens sometimes with a fourth wave.
SPX 884 is the .786 retrace to Jan. 6 943.85 high, looks like we get to that today. So you've gotta know I am looking at these levels as being key to whether or not we see a wave 5 to new lows in NDX and SPX.
Getting to wave 5 new lows could be very bullish obviously for whatever comes next. I don't know what you project as the next wave for the market in that case. I've got it marked as the Dow and NDX both then going to a large wave B pullback from zigzag, and SPX then doing a large wave X up. Not wedded to these ideas but just thinking they are the most likely.
But first things first, gotta see if we get new lows in the wave 5 down idea.