Wednesday, April 29, 2009

NNVC - Elliott Wave analysis

I am counting NNVC as being in a very deep retracement of a Wave 1 impulsive wave. Wave 1 started on April 6th at $0.512 and peaked on April 27th at $1.29. A typical retracement of 75% of Wave 1 would take prices down to the $0.714 level. Today's low so far is $0.73. Wave 2's can retrace up to but not exceed 100% of Wave 1.



Wave 2's:

  • Wave 2 is usually a Zigzag based pattern.
  • Wave 2 usually takes a small amount of time compared to Wave 1. However, Wave 2 is usually takes more than 10% of the time taken by Wave 1.
  • Wave 2 generally retraces more than 30% of Wave 1 including internal data points.
  • Wave 2 will usually retraces less than 80% of Wave 1 .
  • The most likely retracement for Wave 2 is 50% or 61.8% of Wave 1.
  • The gross price movement of Wave 2 should be greater than the gross price movement of Waves 2 of 1, 4 of 1, 2 of 3 and 4 of 3.
  • If the gross movement of Wave 2 is between 33% and 40.3% retracement of Wave 1, it is most likely complete.
  • If the gross movement of Wave 2 has retraced to end of previous Wave 4 of 1, then it is most likely complete.

  • Wave 2's are designed to shake out the weak hands before impulsive Wave 3 occurs. Some characteristics of Wave 3's:

  • It is unlikely that Wave 3 will be shorter than Wave 1 by price.
  • The most likely price range for Wave 3 is between 1.5 and 3.5 times the price range of Wave 1.
  • Most likely range in time for Wave 3 is between 1 and 4 times the time taken by Wave 1.

  • I'm counting Wave 1 as being $0.77, so under these guidelines, Wave 3 should take prices between $1.15 and $2.70 higher from the end of Wave 2. If Wave 2 ended today at $0.73, then under these guidelines, Wave 3 will carry NNVC to between $1.88 and $3.43.

    Now this is all quite speculative, but if it unfolds as above, this entire sequence will only be a larger degree WAVE ONE of a larger degree FIVE WAVES UP.......


    ......which itself will only be Wave 1 of an even larger 5 wave sequence up. It is somewhere in the midst of these sequences up that news will come out, explaining the fundamentals underlying the entire advance. That, my friends, is when we take our millions and remember this post.


    A

    16 comments:

    Anonymous said...

    Allan, are you still beraish about the market, or does today's action change your view

    Allan said...

    To be perfectly accurate (and clear) my stance, which remains unchanged, is that when this Wave 4 rally, which despite today's gains is still mostly sideways and certainly not impulsive, ends, when it ends, we go down hard.

    ROB G said...

    ALLAN IM WITH YOU, BOUGHT MORE NNVC AT .76 TODAY AND WHEN MY CXM COMES IN (WHICH IT WILL) I WILL BE ADDING TO MY NNVC POSITION AND SENDING YOU A CHUNK FOR THE FUND. THANKS FOR ALL YOUR INSIGHT AND EFFORT.

    Anonymous said...

    Dear Allan:

    I've been following your blog for about a year and am impressed.

    On YOUR advice and COMMAND (see blue area to the right) I bought 200,000 shares of NNVC over the past week.

    I am Italian (Sicilian) from NYC and, frankly, am "well connected" if you follow my drift.

    If they go up great, you get 5%. If they go down, you will be visited after hours in Phoenix by several guys, whose middle names are all in quotes, to "discuss" the matter.

    I am a patient man, so we will watch NNVC go UP in May to say $2.70/share.

    Then to say $3.50/share in June, give or take a dime or so.

    Given your superb record, I'm sure you and the CEO can make this happen. Otherwise, it will be tough to type trades into a computer with fewer than 5 fingers.

    Capiche?

    Gondolpho
    New York, NY

    Word to the Wise: I am not joking.

    Anonymous said...

    Gondolpho, do your own DD, stop talking non-sense ...

    Anonymous said...

    Gondolpho,

    You just committed Assault across state lines. The FBI will be quite interested. You and your NY friends will meet some ex Seal and Special Forces guys if you don't retract.

    Comprende?

    BTW Allan did not Command, and he only suggested 10,000 shares.

    Allan said...

    Chill out - it's obviously friendly fire.

    Anonymous said...

    Allan, are we in the process of melt up in this market, my shorts are getting toast ...

    Anonymous said...

    The FBI has a van parked across the street from my private club 24/7. Why don't you just walk over there and tell them?

    BTW "assault" means I physically attacked someone. To do that "across state lines" would require some serious breaking of the laws of nature.

    I merely suggested that we would like to have a meeting with Allan if the stock does not go up as he himself insists it will.

    I am in the construction supply business here in NYC. Not a stock picker. I run a few laundromats as well.

    Learn the law before you shoot your mouth off. (Or we do it for you).

    Gondolpho
    New York, NY

    Anonymous said...

    Hey, Alan's a lawyer, so, even if this is 'playing around' you both must be aware that ASSAULT does not require physical presence or contact...it seems to me that the mere placing of FEAR in another is the basis of Assault.

    Well, in any case, let's put out some good vibes about the future of NNVC.

    Little Joe

    Anonymous said...

    Yes, it's not obvious that it's friendly fire. This seems to be taking the same spin the last thread took that required deletion.

    Assault does not require physical contact but I'm not certain it can be done electronically.

    Back to NNVC...I enjoyed the wave explanation as it made my head spin. Usually it takes a couple beers to do that so I'll forgo the beers and buy 5 more shares and throw them on the pile. (bought 5k anyway).

    Thanks. FWIW, there is at least one person who reads your board that either would not buy based on your comments about one stock or another or, having bought on that basis, would not blame you should the mentioned stock take a dive.

    Se la vie.

    Rcprofit said...

    I know nanoviricides isn’t a marketing company but they need to hire someone to promote their capabilities…. Or just simply try harder.

    One would think that their products would speak for themselves…. Wah wah wah wah wahhhhhh


    I guess I am trying to say, why wouldn’t they want to capitalize on this opportunity tell the World about themselves. The world is looking at the web, searching for answers and information on how they can cure themselves if they get the SWINE (By the WAY Raised to LEVEL 5 by the WHO)


    SPREAD THE AWARNESS ---

    We can't fault the government for everything (turning them down epedimic after epidemic)...


    The POWER OF THE PEOPLE... with the internet... I've seen successful petitions and other strategies fighting for causes...

    for example prosper.com has a movement and can only lend to people in CA, so they are trying to do something about it...

    http://www.fixthecreditcrisis.org/

    This is a good template if you all were serious about saving lives and making money with NNVC at the same time. Someone get this started!

    Anonymous said...

    Allan,

    I have added to my position today topping it up to the 10,000 share level.

    Allan,could you explain how NNVC's cure would be actually given/administered to a patient-drug or injection or patch.

    Also, how feasible is it that NNVC can offer a solution for this particular pandemic.

    HB.


    ps.Gondolpho,if you truly are for real you must know that no one can predict the precise direction and timing of a stock. We a have a Golden Goose here with Allan so intimidation tactics serve only to inhibit the laying of golden eggs.

    DrFeelgood said...

    >>"Allan,could you explain how NNVC's cure would be actually given/administered to a patient-drug or injection or patch[?]"

    I'll take this one, if that's OK?

    "Drug or injection or patch?" In a the pitcher or in a glass or by the shot? As pole dance or a lap-dance or massage?

    Enough metaphors. The point is a nanoviricide can be administered as an injection or by an eye drop or by an inhalant or by a patch. It just depends upon the purpose within the purpose of treating. The purpose is to treat viral infections but not all viral infections are treated the same way.

    As I understand it, HIV would first be treated through an injection to reduce viral load to zero. It might the be treated with daily, weekly or monthly patches to maintain a zero load.

    EKC and other viral eye infections would be treated with eye drops in some hourly or several hourly regimen over a period of several days.

    Influenzas and other respiratory infections could be treated by nasal mist or by inhaler. A more serious respiratory infection might be initially treated with a massive injection and followed by a nasal or oral mist.

    The one administration that is unlikely is by tablet or capsule. The problem there is the challenge presented by the harsh environment of the digestive system. It's doubtful the micelle can withstand stomach acids.

    So, you want your treatment in a pitcher or a glass? Sometimes I like mine as a shot turned over in a mug.

    Allan said...

    I like mine hand-rolled and passed, on a moonlit beach, with the surf romancing my toes, as summer drifts slowly in the mist.

    Anonymous said...

    "Assault does not require physical contact but I'm not certain it can be done electronically."

    I am certain that it does. In all states assault requires physical contact except in a few where it requires "near" physical contact- taking a swing at someone and missing which is only attempted assault. Neither of which occurred here.

    But you are correct, saying things that someone doesn't want to hear is a legal issue covered by a major piece of law- The 1st Amendment of the Constitution.



    BTW I was the one who required the deletion and it was because of posts by someone named "Lili.

    Who is now banned from the board.

    This "Gondolpho" guy was not even a poster on that board.



    Do you want yours taken down now and in the future? We can use your IP address to identify your posts whether you sign them or not.

    I can do it again- no problem.


    And BTW, if you are going to speak French at least try to do it right. It is not:

    "Se la vie."

    it is:

    "C'est la vie."

    This is a board for traders not for those making bogus legal threats or trying to use it as a language learning course.

    In other words, it is not for morons.