Monday, June 01, 2009

Bonds & Interest Rates

My vehicle of choice for trading Bonds & Interest Rates is TBT and it's reverse, TLT. Below the current 120 Minute TBT chart.


Last week's A-B-C decline was the perfect foil to shake out weak hands before the start of the next move up. With the help of Blue Wave, Elliott Wave and False Bar Stochastic I went back in this morning, expecting a near-term move to 60, as shown above. I bought the June 55 calls @ $2.00, looking for a double before expiration.


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12 comments:

Lasertrader said...

Allan:

Thank you for the bond charts. It looks like there is a good opportunity there. Im also in NNVC with you so over time I hope we are all happy.

Does todays technical action change your opinion on a big leg down?

Thanks,

Bruce

Anonymous said...

Guess your EW wave 5 crash is toast. Lesson for those that lost their asses going short -- don't fight the government.

toasted

Allan said...

Bruce - I still expect that the entire rally from the March 6, 2009 lows will be retraced.....and then some. The tricky part is going to be getting SHORT as soon as possible after the top is in. That's why every BW Sell signal needs to be respected. Standing aside, waiting for the next one. Meanwhile this trade 9TBT) and Gold trades are keeping me busy.

Allan said...

Re: toasted

What Wave 5 crash trade are you talking about? See my comment above.

niks said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
niks said...

Allan,

how does the ZOLT chart look to you now.

Niks

He said...

Allan,

Good call on SWC. Regarding GFRE, any thoghts on the extra large volume today? It looks like it's setting up for another move but 850k volume is huge for them.

He

Allan said...

Re: Volume & GFRE

I don't do much with volume, but David Gordon does:

http://eutrapelia.blogspot.com/2009/06/of-mice-and-men.html

Anonymous said...

One of your posters picks: ADLS
The one you became bored with. Up 40% on Friday, holding par today, looking for a nod from the FDA tomorrow. Think it needs a relook just on the anticipation interest?

ROB G said...

allan,
for all of us amatuers that are short trying to pick this top (rookie mistake), and are getting beat up, is it best to just hold our position, take the loss and wait for the short confirmation to go back in, or at this point keep averaging into the short position?

thanks rob g

Anonymous said...

What happened man?!? WTF is the market moving higher!!?!!

sincerely,
butt-f*ed.

malomker said...

rob g, if you stick to conservative stops (say 1%) then you can make a few bad guesses and still come out ahead. Trying to pick a top using too much leverage for your account size is not so good.