Tuesday, June 16, 2009

A rose by any other name

What's in a name? that which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet; So Romeo would, were he not Romeo call'd, Retain that dear perfection which he owes Without that title. Romeo, doff thy name, And for that name which is no part of thee Take all myself.

Let's take another look at our Weekly S&P 500 chart. This time as a line chart, with the Blue Wave Precision CCI Indicator along the bottom.

Going as far back as January 2008, my Advanced GET software places a Wave 1 label about the time the CCI was at it's then lowest. It then placed the top of Wave 2 corresponding with the highest subsequent level for the CCI.

Note that these are two independent pieces of software, they don't even know each other exist (we call that marriage here in the States)

The CCI remains under it's zero line for the next nine months, while in the chart above, a Wave 3 takes hold of the market and doesn't let go. Finally, around mid-March, 2009, the CCI emerges into the top half of it's range, above the zero line and then peaks two weeks ago and now has turned down, headed toward the zero line.

That is where we find the market this week. The suggestion here is being made by confirmatory analysis of two independent tools and points to the end of the counter-trend Wave 4 and places the market at the very beginning of Wave 5 down.

By-the-way, Blue Wave will confirm the Weekly down trend at 869.95, now a mere 40 S&P points away.

As I posted earlier today, the shorter-term stuff is pointing down and only the Weekly has yet to confirm. If this CCI connection works, it may very well be first hard evidence that Wave 5 Down has begun.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Is the major top of June already obtained?