Let's start off with today's update of the SPX weekly chart.
A red SELL bar will be generated if this week closes at or below 859.14. I expect to be heavily SHORT well before that level is breached by using shorter-term tools and techniques. Since expectations are for several hundred SPX points lower, entry will be less important then taking and staying with the trade.
In lieu of other supportive technical analysis, I ran across this interview with Gerald Celente published by Human Events.com. This is for those who seek the "why's" that will underlie the next major phase of market behavior.
Exclusive Interview with Future Prediction Expert Gerald Celente
by Terry Easton (more by this author)
Posted 06/05/2009 ET
Updated 06/07/2009 ET
It’s the end of the world as the Greater Depression hits after 2010’s failed “W-recovery”
Human Events had the opportunity to interview forecaster extraordinaire Gerald Celente, President of Trends Research Institute, several days ago -- and the future he predicts looks bleak indeed. In fact, as Mr. Celente sees it, the Great Depression will seem like a mild recession as what waits for us in 2011 hits with the force of a Katrina financial hurricane.
In case you’re wondering who Mr. Celente is (if this is still possible), he’s appeared -- along with his predictions -- on Oprah, CNBC, Reuters, NBC, PBS, BBC, the Glenn Beck Show -- the list goes on an on. His Trends Report has been successfully predicting the major future trends impacting our lives for 3 decades, including calling the dot com crash back in the 1990's.
Mr. Celente's forecast on our impending future is based on his study of history. He says we are bent on destroying our currency, bankrupting our government, and unleashing a violent citizen-against-citizen eruption as the economy collapses into chaos and martial law fascism.
Quite a claim. And God help us if he is right -- again.
“We’re sounding the alarm about the ongoing downward economic cycle”, Gerald told Human Events. “In 2002, we predicted that the collapse of the American empire would fall like the World Trade Center in a thunderous crash -- in slow motion before our eyes. And now it’s happening.”
Mr. Celente follows over 300 trends: family, crime, war, education, consumer & business patterns which TRI synthesizes to predict the future.
“The US is becoming a shadow of what it used to be. Take education for example. The OECD group of developed countries ranks quality of life, education, health care of its member nations. The US is now falling down the table as one piece of data after another shows America is in decline. We’re no longer Win, Place or Show in quality of life, education, longevity… all the essentials where we used to be #1. And our economic underpinnings are failing.”
Mr. Celente puts part of the blame squarely on the federal government, and especially FED Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner, and warns us not to believe a word they say “They’re the same people who didn't see it coming - are now telling us the worst is over, that ‘green shoots are spouting upwards’. But they were wrong before. They’re wrong on this too”.
“When you pump out tons of money manure into this system based on nothing – printing press paper, it’s like giving a patient with a chronic disease a pain killer -- it won’t cure the patient.”
“But let’s go beyond the economics. Our whole Constitution has been abrogated. The president simply writes an Executive Order to do whatever he wants. Nationalize the banks, take over the insurance industry, automobile industry, health care industry…
None of it is constitutional.”
When did the problem begin?
“After Dwight Eisenhower -- our last great president -- the Allied Supreme Commander in WWII – who warned us of the dangers of the military-industrial complex. We've become completely corrupted.”
“We became enmeshed in foreign entanglements. We forgot the lesson of England - and how their global imperial overreach destroyed their empire.”
Of course, the average American doesn’t think that we’re an empire. We’re not like the classical empires of old - raping, pillaging and stealing the wealth of invaded peoples. What does Mr. Celente have to say about this?
“What we’re doing is squandering our wealth, our resources, the genius of our scientists and the future of our children. We’re over-consuming in every way -- but under consuming our education and focusing on the quantity, not the quality, of what we’ve built. So much of today’s culture is counter-productive to what American built it’s foundation on -- a high-quality producing nation building things, not pushing paper.
"And we’ve become not only a consumer society but a low-quality consumer, as well as the most obese society in the world, eating low-quality high-carb, high-fat processed foods.”
“We’re now focused on the lowest cost, the lowest common denominator. Not the best and highest quality. We advertise buying cheapest as the most important thing.”
Mr. Celente argues that we’ve socially destroyed our productivity and have abandoned it to other countries.
“And we have fallen into a moral vacuum. Look at how people used to dress. Smartly. Not like the cheap hoods of today. Fashion now copies the lowest common denominator. Our children wear clothes without belts, and shoes without shoelaces, to copy the styles of the violent criminals -- who have these items removed by the police in prison so they can’t be used as weapons. That’s become the fashion statement of today’s youth. Like rap music from the ghetto. We’ve become an underdeveloped nation.”
Mr. Celente observes that "people used to think of America as that shining beacon on the hill with 'liberty and justice for all…' ." So what happened?
"Morality is missing from our American public consciousness. Start with Wall Street. It’s run by a criminal gang. The only question is ‘how much can you make, how much can you steal?’ At the bottom, the welfare recipient says ‘how much can I take?’ And the government is in on the take."
“Morality is absolutely the issue. We had a government where we were taught all our lives that we are a free enterprise system -- so we depend on our own strength, our entrepreneurial ideas. The world used to look to us for our innovative spirit.”
“This is being destroyed before our eyes. And our government has become more interventionist than any of the old empires could imagine.”
"Our society is now based on consumption -- 70% of the GDP. This is more than we produce. So to pay our bills, we use funny money invented in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve and the fiat dollar based on credit (debt) -- the fractional reserve system. In 1930's you bought what you could afford. You saved up to buy your home. The easy credit of the 90's has destroyed the country. Now you borrow what you can’t afford - and the nation’s done the same."
Mr. Celente predicts the use of printing press money will cause the "greater depression".
"I predict continuing deflation of real estate, followed by extreme currency inflation -- ultimately becoming worthless. This is why gold is the only honest money -- the government can't counterfeit it. Look for it to top at least $2000 an ounce"
"Our unemployment numbers are also bogus. For example, the construction industry is really above 20% , and the government is creating low-level jobs, not real jobs. The US total real unemployment is more like 16%. Before the crisis is over, it will reach 25% - great depression numbers."
"When people have lost everything they have nothing to lose. Violence and crime will explode. Look at the OECD figures. The number of people not graduating from high school is exploding -- they're wacked out on drugs. New York City will look like Mexico City in a few years. The collapse of morality from top down -- and especially in the government -- makes it inevitable."
"What can we expect in the coming future", we asked.
"Washington has declared 'Economic Martial Law'. Wall Street is putting Main Street out of business. The key to watch is Christmas sales. They’ll fail. Christmas will be when reality sets in."
"Another trend we wrote about over 2 years ago was the tax revolt. What’s happened? Tax revenues have collapsed by 33%. And the wealthy people are leaving."
"We predict state secessionist movements will rival the breakup of the Soviet Union."
"The only way we can ever recover is to return to individual community, personal responsibility, local government. Next, average will disappear, Quality will return. Look at GM. Junk cars financed by junk bonds. Now owned by a junk government. As a consumer, don’t consume quantity -- consume quality."
"How will it all end?", we queried. Will the dollar survive?
"The dot com bubble should have burst and gone away in a short sharp recession. But the boys at the Fed re-inflated the economy by lowering interest rates to a 46 year low -- and in turn created the real estate bubble -- much bigger than the dot com bubble. "
"Now they’re creating the bailout bubble -- which will ultimately dwarf the real estate bubble. It will cause the implosion of the global economy world wide -- which will not be able to be repaired by creating yet another bubble. Every time the government fails, it tells a bigger lie and then a still bigger lie."
"These previous bubbles were not allowed to pop -- but they didn’t destroy the infrastructure of the country. This bailout bubble will."
"But this bubble will be the last one. After the final blowout of the bailout bubble, we are concerned that the government will take the nation into war. This is a historical precedent that’s been done over and over again."
"So, it’s not that the dollar that will survive. We may not even survive. Look at the German mess after WWI. It gave rise to Fascism and WWII. The next war will be fought with weapons of mass destruction."
American 'Liberal Fascism' ? Is it possible? Jonah Goldberg's bestseller raised the alarm two years ago.