Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Wednesday intraday update - Part II

Just to keep some perspective, here is my 30-minute SPX chart, showing a well defined channel containing prices and today's rally barely edging out the 25% Fibonacci retracement level from last week's top, circa SPX 956.




Blue Wave's Sell trigger for this time frame is currently at 904.82.


A

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan:

Following your intro, I bought 20,000 shares of NNVC at 74/share.

They are now at 50, have no revenue, no products, their "Big Pharma" announcement was a joke and did not even NAME the other company and are on the express train to zero/share.

ALL of this in a 1/2 year raging bull market.

Got any explanation for this or are you just going to admit this is a bankruptcy in the making and you f#cked up big time?

I say take what you have left sell it , then sell it short and run.

I would guess 99% of your readers would agree.

I invite your thoughts (unless you are too frightened) and those of the readership in general.

- "Kick"

Allan said...

Following my lead? You would have bought in 2006 at under $10c and so you have a 400% gain. OR are you just making up facts to make yourself look stupid?

My forecast for this stock takes into account a 5 year window for maturation into a bona fide major pharmaceutical company. After which, it won't matter if you paid a dime or a dollar per share.

Anonymous said...

Yes and if I were 130 years old and bought the railroads around 1890 I would really be doing great!

The post on the right by you says BUY 10,000 shares NOW and get filthy rich. I took out a mortgage on my paid off house to buy 20,000 shares and I am a long way from filthy rich. Filthy poor would be a better description.

Your point is?

- Kick

Allan said...

Never said any such thing. What I did say was that within the next five years I thought every 10,000 shares of NNVC will grow to be worth $1M. A far cry from your patently false accusation.

PENN STATE Eric said...

K(D)ick:

You pointed out your time of buying being "NOW" and getting rich, but you don't comment on the rest of the time frame that this is founded in, which is where the rest of Allan's comments lay, in 5 years from now. If you took out a second mortgage you're an idiot, which it would appear anyway from your rant. If you believe everything posted on the internet I have a great job for you where you can make $10,000 a week working from home you just gotta buy a packet of information and a CD for say, $20,000. And yes, I am mocking you. You're not an investor or trader, you're a follower who wouldn't open a door unless someone told you to.

Since you're already committed just hang on and see what happens.

Anonymous said...

NYAH NYAH NYAH NYAH NYAH !!!

Rob said...

Anon,
Sorry to hear about your (paper) loss. Sounds like $20k on black or red @ the roulette table might have been a better trading vehicle for you.
Quit whining and take some responsiblity for your own investments/trades.

Anonymous said...

904.82 SELL TRIGGERED. IS THAT FOR A DAY TRADE OR INTERMEDIATE TERM?

Anonymous said...

I think Allan has covered this before and you should take responsibility for your trades. This is a bio tech company with a good scientific model. They are progressing and ONLY in animal studies currently. Find out about the drug development time line, because 5 years is about right, maybe a tick more depending on clinical results and FDA responses at various phases of the pipeline. Second mortgage? Cripes, nothing in this world is a sure thing. Look in the mirror before you speak and someone else advised to do your own research and don't believe everything you read. Good luck though paling water from your ship...

Pivot Trend said...

Allan,

Just ignore Kick. What he was telling is a joke.

btw, do you still hold your FAZ calls? Finance seems to refuse go down. Look at GS, which is more like a healthy pullback and then go higher.

Ubreako said...

Please sell your 20,000 shares....i'll be happy to buy it from you. You are clearly an inexperienced trader. You sound like a little boy whinning. Pityful....just pityful. Do you own homework, and if you think risking 5K to make 100K conservatively is a poor deal....you should have your money in a mattress or in a bank. But please stay lower than the FDIC limit else if the bank goes bust...i'll have to hear you whine again.

Alan, i have been corresponding with NNVC. Chugging along nicely says seymour.

Allan said...

PT: Yes and actually added more October calls on FAZ today, despite weak price action. The bet here is that a general market meltdown will drag down financials and the leverage here is tremendous. High risk to go along with the high reward potential.

Anonymous said...

Ubreako wrote:

"Alan (sic ), (sic) i (sic) have been corresponding with NNVC. Chugging along nicely says seymour (sic)."

WHAT??? The CEO of a company with zero revenue and a penny stock share price that is dropping like a rock says "everything is going GREAT!"?

There is a news flash! Somebody call "60 Minutes."

They said that at Enron & Worldcom too and each had billions in legitimate revenue, leaving aside the scams.

Allan is the best trader I have EVER seen and I've been around doing this for 35 years. But this NNVC thing is a dead dog with fleas. Short the SOB and put your $$ into his other superb ideas.

This is not a cult. We are allowed to disagree on this blog, according to Allan's own words, but I am seeing more and more blind followers- a disturbing trend.

BTW, this Ubreako guy needs to invest in a course in English as a second language, or at LEAST learn how to spell Allan's name.

-Kick

Ubreako said...

I did my homework on this name and understand the game plan. Im not keen on getting petty with this KICK character. I wish you all the best in your trading.

Look forward to you selling your NNVC. My bid will be at 30 cents.

Anonymous said...

Allan - Could you explain why you think the market will go down when Bernanke came out today and said that a new Great Depression has been averted and the recession is easing. Why would anyone want to go short after such comments?

Anonymous said...

Kick,

I can understand being upset and wanting to pick a fight with everyone when your best efforts result in ruin for yourself and your family. Trading is one cruel mistress.

However, it is irrelevant if your loss came from NNVC or Apple, sooner or later it was bound to happen because your comments show you are just not ready for the markets.

* You MORTGAGED your house to buy a stock. (wagering more money than you could afford to lose)

* You displayed complete ignorance of risk management in putting all your eggs in one basket

* You accepted a stock tip without doing your own homework and coming to your own conclusions, otherwise you wouldn't be blaming anyone else.

* You sat frozen and took a $480k loss that you couldn't afford to lose.

I am really sorry for you, but if you don't take some steps to educate yourself you are going to lose the rest of your stake. I'm not stupid enough to advocate you dumping your NNVC stock on a site where everyone owns the stock, but I don't think you can stand any more draw downs, no matter what the eventual pay off may be.

It is time to start over and educate yourself or just give up, because you are currently on a runaway dive to the bottom of the ocean. It's time to break that trend. Start by reading some trading books. Start with Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. It's a chronicle about how one of the greatest traders in history made the same mistakes as you and came back again and again from ruin.

You are not done yet. Take a few years off. The market will still be here when you are ready. But I caution you. This is not a game for those who are uncomfortable with sacrifice. It will take you several years of work to learn enough to be competent. It will also require you to think about the markets for most of your waking day. You can't become a trader if you don't think like a trader. If you don't make that commitment, you will fail.

I'm not you, but if I was, I would decide if I was really serious about being a trader. If the answer was yes, I would put my arms around my wife and say I was sorry about our losses. Then I would get to work with no thought about yesterday.

Smiddywesson

Ubreako said...

Smiddy you are a good man. True gentleman. I hope to be as tolerant and be the bigger man just like you.

But markets are cruel and we all go thru the emotional roller coaster. Jessy livermoore ...good book !

Dont you just love capitalism .... it weeds out the weak by natural selection...KICK my friend...try to stay off the endangered species list.

Anonymous said...

Response to Anonymous:

"Allan - Could you explain why you think the market will go down when Bernanke came out today ..."

How does one answer such an innocent question? Rather than accept the recession as a good thing which burns away inefficient market practices (like derivative contracts which favor the seller over the buyer due to their complexity) the Fed and the administration decided to join forces and sing a John Maynard Keynes version of Kumbaya, "guaranteed" to buy our way out of this predicament.

Well, we spent a lot of money, and the guarantee hasn't worked out. The President recently said that we don't need another stimulus package "yet." Really? A 13 trillion dollar effort, the world economic giants threatening to jettison our currency as the reserve, and we are not yet done?

Mr. Bernake, knowing that he signed a pact with the devil, is getting worried. He actually thought that giving money to politicians would not result in their spending that money like drunken sailors. They laughed at his admonitions against deficit spending and he seems like a shreiking academic trying to preserve his legacy to me.

I'm not so sure that Mr. Bernake is all that relevant anymore and I'd be surprised if he would accept another nomination even if the current administration would tolerate anyone who disagreed with them. The independence of the Fed is just about done. Gone are the days when the Fed could affect the markets with just a lifting of Mr. Greenspan's ample eyebrows. The central bankers of the world had similar influential powers before 1929. Today's Fed chairman is a pale shadow of his predecessors because he is boxed in by his own actions and events beyond his control. The Fed is all but tatooing on their forehead that they won't raise interest rates. Gee, I wonder why? If they thought the stimulus they wrought was working, why would higher interest rates be such a threat? Where are my green shoots?

Everyone with any information about what is going on is speaking in terms about "confidence." Confidence doesn't fix a sick economy. Bernake has been reduced to a cheerleader because he knows that we have shot most of our powder, and our options are now increasingly limited. The jobs reports you are seeing are doctored. Even the president recently admitted their estimates were overly optimistic. He said unemployment will soon top 10%. That means we are approaching 20%. Governance has been reduced to one's facility at massaging the numbers.

Yesterday, there was an ecomonic report from key industrialized nations predicting that the world economies would pull out of the recession in the coming year. This was resented as evidence of how good the USA was doing. Does anyone remember that during the Great Depression we floundered for 12 years in government stimulus (1929-1942) while the rest of the world recovered from their recession?

Make no mistake, things are not getting better until the disfunctional parts of our economy are burned away. Stimulus iniatives will not change the fact that the banks are bankrupt because there is no market for derivative securities (ala LTCM), that credit card debt and commercial real estate is about to explode, and that trade wars are on the horizon. This is all history repeating itself. Mr. Bernake is nothing more than a well meaning academic. He can't handle the current political climate. It is like a finely groomed show dog facing a pack of junk yard dogs. The politicians will have their way. We will zig zag our way to our destiny no matter how much money and how much baloney is expended along the way in a misguided belief that we are in control of our collected destiny.

Stop trying to make sense of this. You are traders! It doesn't matter if I am right about the big crash or if I am wrong. You shouldn't believe in anything for too long because the ability of the system to keep the party going defies reason. Go out and make profits.

Smiddywesson

Anonymous said...

Mr Kick...bend over and kick yourself in your arse for being so stupid!!

Mike

PENN STATE Eric said...

I like how when people are backed into the corner of the argument they initiated we become "blind followers" all the sudden. Dude bought stuff someone else told him they felt was worth something and we're the followers? Hmmm....stepped on your own dic-??