Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Wednesday intraday update

Euphoria reigns, did you think being Short for a market crash would be easy?

Here are my most relevant charts:

On the left, the 120-minute SPX chart, in Buy mode. On the right, the Daily SPX, still in Sell mode.

I'm standing aside, waiting for short-term model to go Short again, or for Daily model to flip positive in order to even consider the Long side.



Jeff said...

Thanks for the update Allan. Do either of these show any promise from BW or TT perspective? ARNA and OREX.


Mike said...

re: Wed intraday...

kind of like:


Me again said...

Pessimistic Execs...from Financial Times

Pessimistic executives cash out of shares
By Anuj Gangahar and Michael Mackenzie in New York

Published: June 22 2009 23:36 | Last updated: June 23 2009 00:44

Growing pessimism about the prospects for a global economic recovery sent stock and commodity prices tumbling on Monday while new data showed that leading US corporate executives were cashing out of their share holdings at a rapid pace.

US government bond yields followed equity prices lower, confounding analysts who had expected that Treasury rates would rise this week as the federal government auctioned off a record $104bn of debt.

Analysts said the market mood was captured by a World Bank report that said the global economy would contract 2.9 per cent this year, compared with a previous estimate of a 1.7 per cent fall. A White House spokesman said later in the day that the US unemployment rate was likely to rise to 10 per cent in the next couple of months.

The downbeat commentary reinforced the view that investors should be more worried about the impact of economic weakness on corporate profits than the possibility of higher inflation and interest rates.

Executives in charge of the largest US companies sent a signal of their concerns by selling far more shares than they bought this month, according to data based on Securities and Exchange Commission filings...

Share sales by so-called company insiders are outstripping purchases so far this month by more than 22 times. TrimTabs, the investment research company, said insiders of S&P 500 listed companies have unloaded $2.6bn in shares in June, compared with $120m in purchases.

“The smartest players in the US stock market – the top insiders who run public companies – are not betting their own money on an economic recovery,” said Charles Biderman, chief executive of TrimTabs. ...