Below some perspective on recent gold picks that needs to be respected. If you have the tools, temperament and discipline to trade around these longer-term signals, so be it. If not, don't sweat the small stuff (like Wednesday's sell-off).
Allan, I think you need to seriously reconsider the wave 5 cliff theory. Doesn't look like any cliff coming imo. Friggin financials are on a tear. First lost my ass on FAZ and now getting my severed head brain f*d by XLF.
Reconsider? Why? Because my observation that we are in a rally phase TO BE FOLLOWED by a hard down phase is coming true? We are inching closer, but not there yet. So if you have been short the market while it has been going up, it's because of my forecast. When this rally ends, we go down hard. Do with that what you want. I have my plans.
Noticeable MACD bearish divergeance from highs of May 8 to that of this past Tuesday June 2 on the SPX. If price does not breakout much higher than the 95.37 on 6/2 and it goes sideways for a bit it could be the top in this recent rally. Whether or not we retrace to previous lows is anyone's guess.
Personally, I would think the potential for another massive sell-off definitely exists as fundamentals are no where to be found to prop this sucker up if/when investor's sentiment finally goes south for a bit again. As long as we're losing 500k jobs a month it's hard to imagine this rally going on a whole lot further.
FYI - Decision Point lists fair value EPS estimates for the S&P 500 for 2009Q4 @ 411, with zero (0) values for Q2 & Q3. And typical bear market bottoms do not sell for 'fair' value. 'Undervalued' estimates are for S&P 274... 70% off of current values. Ouch! I would guess that fundamentals are not - and will not - be a factor in what is paid for the market for quite some time.
Probably a bit permature to dismiss the 'cliff' theory.
9 comments:
Market club released an Alert yesterday to exit all LONG positions on Gold.
http://club.ino.com/trading/?p=1428
Allan, I think you need to seriously reconsider the wave 5 cliff theory. Doesn't look like any cliff coming imo. Friggin financials are on a tear. First lost my ass on FAZ and now getting my severed head brain f*d by XLF.
Reconsider? Why? Because my observation that we are in a rally phase TO BE FOLLOWED by a hard down phase is coming true? We are inching closer, but not there yet. So if you have been short the market while it has been going up, it's because of my forecast. When this rally ends, we go down hard. Do with that what you want. I have my plans.
Should read: If you have been short the market while it has been going up, its NOT because of my forecast.
lol. I hope you're not gonna take credit for prediction the cliff when the it happens 5 years from now.
Noticeable MACD bearish divergeance from highs of May 8 to that of this past Tuesday June 2 on the SPX. If price does not breakout much higher than the 95.37 on 6/2 and it goes sideways for a bit it could be the top in this recent rally. Whether or not we retrace to previous lows is anyone's guess.
Personally, I would think the potential for another massive sell-off definitely exists as fundamentals are no where to be found to prop this sucker up if/when investor's sentiment finally goes south for a bit again. As long as we're losing 500k jobs a month it's hard to imagine this rally going on a whole lot further.
FYI - Decision Point lists fair value EPS estimates for the S&P 500 for 2009Q4 @ 411, with zero (0) values for Q2 & Q3. And typical bear market bottoms do not sell for 'fair' value. 'Undervalued' estimates are for S&P 274... 70% off of current values. Ouch! I would guess that fundamentals are not - and will not - be a factor in what is paid for the market for quite some time.
Probably a bit permature to dismiss the 'cliff' theory.
I was just hating cause of the brain f*ing I got recently. No hard feelings Alan.
Heads up.
http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/ns_china/2009-06-03/408526048776.html
You recommended TGB around $.80, now it's nearly $2.00. What do your charts say about where it's heading next?
TGB continues in a bull trend targeting $3 and more.
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