Monday, June 29, 2009

Harry Dent's Road to DJIA 4000


Anonymous said...

Harry Dent received the "Ultimate Charlatan" Award from Dent predicted in his 2006 work “The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade, the NASDAQ advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009..."

A lot of your postings are very thoughtful and insightful. It is out of character for this blog to link to a charlatan such as Dent!

Anonymous said...

Yes Allan, HS Dent is kinda fruit with his half use of wave theory bolstered by his use of demographics. He and Rodney Johnson are good salesmen.

Allan said...

Hey folks,

Ideas are like watermelons, some have seeds, some don't.

Have some interesting charts to show, if I can get them posted before by brain gives out.

Ubreako said...

How does gold and silver play into this ? another round of selling due to deleveraging ? Yippee!!

Anonymous said...

If being wrong made one a charlatan, then we'd all be charlatans. Soros changes his mind at the drop of a hat. How come he's not a charlatan? I know, because he's a billionaire and we're not. LOL (No one remembers your bad plays when you have billions of chips on your side of the table.)

I read Dent's book and it made a lot of sense to me. I agree it had a lot of wave theory and market timing behind the curtain but everything he said sounded reasonable.

These melt downs happen once a century or so, and most of the better analysts understand that fact. They just can't tell you with any degree of accuracy when the party will end because the rules of the game change as it progresses. Stimulus version I obviously changed the trajectory of the economy, if not its ultimate destination. Versions II and III should do the same, so no one is going to tell you when. However, knowing where the economy is likely to end up is still useful.

Dent is like any trader. He makes a prediction based on what he believes will happen and then he alters his position as circumstances change. Otherwise, he gets wiped out with a prediction that is no longer valid, just like you or me.