Saturday, May 30, 2009

Weekly Analytics

Below is the Weekly SPX chart. Pay special attention to the Wave 2 and Wave 4 tops and in particular how the final stages of those tops were essentially sideways affairs, when looking at Weekly bars.

Sideways markets, where days alternate with up 100 and down 100 points, frustrate bull and bear alike. In the end, the next wave triggers with few aboard, "The Tau of the Dow."

Below an update on the Weekly SLV chart:

Initial EW analysis suggests a breakout looming. Still waiting for definitive confirmation.

Below the 120 Minute TBT chart. My last posting of this chart was unfortunately just before the top of Wave 3. Blue Wave caught the decline early enough to side step most of it, but a good example, nonetheless, why the shorter term moves need something more then my occasional updates to trade.

Below is the Daily VIX chart. I've drawn a Trend Regression channel coming down from the 4th Wave high. Remember that this indicator goes opposite equity index prices. So a Buy signal here is a Sell signal for the markets. A break out above the Regression channel will present our first hard evidence that the Wave 5 decline to new S&P lows is at hand.

Finally, a reader asked me about what Blue Wave had to say about CEPH:



Anonymous said...

Would like your thoughts on this article:

Allan said...

It's all rigged, that's why something that identifies where they ant it to go (Blue Wave) is such an effective strategy, so much better then trying to out-psyche them. See also:

Anonymous said...

Allan, I'd like your guess of how big of a breakout of the S&P this week? 950? 1000?