Sunday, May 03, 2009

Bonds & Gold

Lets take a look at two other markets that present trading opportunities from time to time, Bonds and Gold.

First Bonds, via the TLT, a Long Bond ETF.


Weekly


The above Weekly chart paints a picture of a major trend change in interest rates at the end of 2008. The major LOW in rates occurred in December and rates have been rising ever since. The EW count suggests that there is a lot further to go, higher rates for the foreseeable future.


34 minute


The above 34 minute chart with FBS & BW illustrates how interest rates can be effectively traded right from your home computer.


Below a Weekly chart of the Gold market via the Gold ETF, GLD.


Weekly GLD


This GLD chart is pointing to a pivotal Low in Gold in the near future, followed by another swing up. But this is not a clear as the other markets, S&P and Bonds. Thus, with no high-confidence longer term forecast, Gold remains a traders market.


34 minute


Drilling down to the 34 minute chart, we can see numerous higher confidence trades in both directions based on the FBS. So even without a clear forecast, a trader can take advantage of opportunities without a big picture compass.


Finally, my Weekly chart of NNVC:



My commentary on this chart is simply that in 40 years of trading and 25 years Technical Analysis, I have never seen a breakout like this one fail. Coming back to to touch the the channel, even toy with it, is normal. The expectation is still for much higher prices to come.


A

30 comments:

Steve said...

"40 years of trading" ???
You were trading in grade school??!

Allan said...

Yep, first trade at age 13, bar mitzvah money, have never looked back.

Anonymous said...

Red Wings and Ducks 2-2

Steve said...

Good move! I blew my Bar Mitzvah cash on booze and broads!

Anonymous said...

sh*t, Ducks 3-2, power play goal ...

Anonymous said...

and with NNVC close to a Production Phase, with a product to sell, knocking Tamiflu on its ASS, releasing Flucide under emergency use authorization rules, I's say Allan Is AllRight!!! Gary

Anonymous said...

Alan,

itulip.com has a very interesting article which ties in nicely with your charts on Gold and Treasuries.

They too believe in the same scenerio you outlined here. Long term bottoms are being established and major moves are ahead.

Just thought you'd enjoy reading it.

Anonymous said...

allan, thanks for the posts on nnvc. for the novice which line is the channel?

Harsh Nahar said...

Alan,

Enjoy reading your blog. But I have been wondering on how you choose your trading time frame. 34 minute? Would be great if you could throw some of you thoughts on this

Thanks again
Harsh

Newbie said...

Allan,as a newbie investor what should one look for as a trigger for a drop as you repeatedly shown in your charts.

Anonymous said...

You've lost your touch. Market has gone bullish and you're still talking about the big cliff coming. Stop helping people lose their money!

Allan said...

Tiresome, illogical criticism. If you have been following the Market Club triangles, you're long. If you have been following the EW 4 rally, you're long. If you have been following the Blue Wave trend models, you're long. When this respite in the bear market ends, all of the above will flip short and we will enjoy the trade of the year.

If you want to criticize my forecasts, my tools, my trading, get your facts right and we can discuss whatever points you are making. First, get your head out of your ass and pay attention to what I am saying, not what you imagine I am saying.

Oh yea, since my real name is out there, why don't you get the kahunas to post your real name? Assholes like you are a dime a dozen on the Internet. So this blog is in Moderation mode.....sigh.

Anonymous said...

I'm not worried about NNVC. WHO has stated they expect the flu to mutate and come back stronger this fall. Remember to that cancer is a virus, as is HIV. Anything that can attack a virus like NNVC is worth paying attention to.

Anonymous said...

yeah rah rah! lets have killer viruses come into existence and take the risk that NNVC drugs may or may not work. Let's hope the worst for millions of people so that your readers can make a few bucks. Allan, some of your readers suck!--myself included (sometimes).

Dave said...

Allan:
Maybe we should also be looking at some parallel trades along with NNVC. I'm thinking anything to do with tactical weapons (i.e.-home defense), specialty food production (e.g.-freeze dried) and water filtration. The "cure" is one thing but it's the events before that may get a little rocky. I knew I should've bought that cabin in the mountains when I had a chance. Don't let these guys discourage you.

Dave

Anonymous said...

The nice thing about buying that cabin in the mountains..its still for sale but 35% cheaper now....go for it!!!

Anonymous said...

Perhaps the most important thing you can do in times of turmoil is to make sure to have faith in your own ability to make decisions and not take anything at face value. Don't buy snake oil. If it seems too good to be true, you can be sure that it is. Be careful out there, people.

Anonymous said...

Allan, why we get the up market while volume very low.

Anonymous said...

Bank hedge fund manipulation???

Anonymous said...

I totally agree with Allan re those tiresome criticisms.

Those of you who so strongly object to Allan's opinions should just leave. Instead, you continue to bleat your meaningless complaints and negative rants. If you have nothing to offer but infantile faultfinding, then please just go away.

It's useful to consider different opinions, but vacuous accusations and smug inane remarks are annoying and unsuited to this top-notch blog.

Please take your shallowness elsewhere.

Anonymous said...

Oh,
Allan--you look so young without your mustache!

DangermouseBuu said...

Alan, you are a genius. Yes, it's safe to say you are. The trade of the year is obviously a collection of PUT options on the S&P and the QQQQ when the amount of time for the golden cross to pass. I am estimating it begins May 11th and pushes into starting the 24th so June contracts are the way to go. Cheap and profitable.

NNVC touched the low point of its journey to the channel today at 5000 shares traded at .70. Time to go back up. NanoViricides are the solution to viruses like influenza. Vaccines rely on antibodies and are only a preventative measure.

Keep in mind viruses like influenza affect people with HIV and AIDS very strongly. NanoViricides that target both the viruses that cause influenza and the HIV virus itself is entering a multi multi multi billion dollar industry.

Allan said...

RE: you look so young without your mustache!

You should see me without my pants....

DangermouseBuu said...

PS Hey Alan, am I on the money for the trade of the year?

Anonymous said...

I have seen you without you pants and it's an awesome sight!

Allan said...

DB: You're close, but I am not using a time element to measure the start of the SHORT trade, I am using a combination of EW and my trend following model, BW.

dangermousebuu said...

Allan - I have a problem.

All of my money is in NNVC. Will it go up enough for me to switch money over to Options Express in time to buy the PUT options? if it happens soon, do you suggest June contracts or the July contracts? How far out of the money do you think would be the best to purchase? Do you have any favorite strike prices?

Allan said...

I can't trade for all of you, give individual advice or tell you exactly when NNVC's ship is coming in. You guys are on your own on these matters, just be forewarned that when this market goes down again, it will take no prisoners.

DangermouseBuu said...

well, then I call on the other people who will post comments here after me. What do you guys think the best put options are, and when do you think would be a good time to buy them? And what are your opinions about the near-term price range of NNVC

Anonymous said...

You guys are nuts if you have all of your cash in NNVC. Despite what Allan says, I think it is a turd and is going to zero. I'd say there's probably a 1% probability of Allan being right on NNVC... maybe less. So you've got a 99% chance of losing all your money. Don't be stupid - it is a speculative stock and the high potential reward carries with it crazy high risk as well.

Do your own DD on NNVC and figure out how long it will take to get drugs approved, how much it will cost, and how much money needs to be raised to do so. You won't be so confident having all your money in it, that's for sure.