Friday, May 08, 2009

Weekend alert

Going into the last hour of trading Friday, I want to suggest that all take a close read on market sentiment this weekend. The euphoria I am hearing in the media and from analysts being interviewed today can only be described as chilling.

A peak in sentiment should accompany a final peak in the Wave 4 rally that my weekly chart has been tracking for the past 10 weeks. That's not to say that this is the top, right here and now, only that the elements are coming into place that would allow that top to occur.

Accordingly, all shorter-term Sell signals should be given our utmost attention and respect.


A

10 comments:

M said...

Hi Allan,

whats your email address. I cant seem to locate it on the blog.

Allan said...

apharris@me.com

Anonymous said...

You think the tops gonna coincide with S&P 1000?

LOL!! word verfication is "sperm". I kid you not!!

Anonymous said...

you mean 'spam' or is it really 'sperm' ???

Anonymous said...

Allan,

Last September 9th I read your warning. I was on vacation and on Sunday night when I went to unload a lot of stuff I could see that the foreign markets had already been unloading theirs. Are we likely to see the foreign markets beat us to the punch again.

Charles Faust

Anonymous said...

I am outraged, but not surprised.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/08/business/08place.html?_r=3&th=&emc=th&pagewanted=print

Alex K said...

The daily " MarketClub Trader's Blog" email has had a link to "Is the S&P 500 running out of gas" for the past couple of weeks. This link finally disappeared in Friday's email -- this might be a contrary indicator supporting the bearish case.

And a warning for gold bugs: a link to "Gold ... time to look at this market again" has made its appearance recently.

Anonymous said...

Yes, but Market Club triangles has just generated a monthly buy signal for SPX . Does that mean possiility of immediate change of trend or just continuation of pressure upward? There is a chance I think we will see 990 or higher in SPX and 9600 DOW before Allans trade of the year occurs.
Lili

Allan said...

Lili: That monthly Triangle should be respected, but it is coming a full 10 weeks from the low, so you must assess the risk:reward here and perhaps may special attention to the Weekly, maybe even the Daily Triangles for a quick exit from whatever top is in the making,

Alex K said...

Lili,

I agree that there is a good chance that the rally will continue for a couple of months, and maybe even test 10k on the Dow - as signalled by the monthly buy signal. However, there is bound to be a decent correction at some stage, possibly very shortly.

Conclusion: even if we see a down-move soon, it is important to keep in mind that this may not yet be the "trade of the year", and not bet the farm on that one trade.

Cheers,

Alex K