Saturday, May 02, 2009

Trade of the year

Above is the Weekly S&P chart that moves like a large ocean liner in a confounding Wave 4 rally that drains the souls of bears and bulls alike.

Below, we drill down to a 2 hour chart which illustrates why there is no slam dunk trades in either direction.......not yet.

Below, the shortest time frame for swing trades and position traders, a 30 minute chart:


The only chart that is meaningful to me is the top chart, the Weekly bar chart, which is setting up for the trade of the year.



Anonymous said...

which is???????????? come on man, now isn't the time to get sheepish! spit it out!!

Wayne said...

Hey anon,

Likely it's "riding the $SPX down", using whatever financial instrument(s) you use for that type of trade.

The exact point to enter the trade depends on your trading system. If you use a simple "making a new 3-week low" trigger (ala Market Club's trading triangles), then the trigger for the next two weeks would be the $SPX low of $826.83 which was hit the week of 4/20.

Or I may be full of it, in which case Allan will straighten me out :)


Anonymous said...

so is this a bullish trade (likely) or bearish trade and when is it likely to occur? many thanks!

Wayne said...

re bullish/bearish, I think a bearish one, i.e. his weekly chart appears to be saying that (a) an EW wave 5 down is due that will be lower than the wave 3 low; (b) the wave 4 action appears to be losing some momentum, and (b) the False Bar Stochastic appears on the verge of changing direction.

As for when it's likely to occur, I would paraphrase his forecasting message for the last few weeks as "any day/week now". But as he's pointed out on many occasions, he's not short yet, only poised to be (pending the firing of his own proprietary triggers).

If for some reason his forecasting is wrong, then his trading implementation has kept him out of trouble. That's why he's taken pains to distinguish between "forecasting" and "trading".