Saturday, May 02, 2009

A perfect storm

WHO fears complications if HIV and H1N1 viruses combine

The nightmare scenario: HIV opens the door to transmission through the air by an unholy alliance between HIV and H1N1.

Need I say it?




Anonymous said...

"WHO fears complications if HIV and H1N1 viruses combine" is not what WHO says. It is what the article says that WHO says.

What WHO really states is that a person who has HIV is more likely to suffer the bad the effects of H1N1 than a non HIV person. Which is true. But it's also true that an HIV person is more likely to have problems with any infectious disease. That's why HIV is so bad.

What WHO also states, and this is what was misrepresented, is that the two viruses together could be a bad combination for people exposed to both. Not that they would merge and combine into a single virus.

Even if exposed to both, the incubation times are different that the diseases would manifest themselves at different times.

So if you are going to be put in a spot where you are likely to contract HIV (not necessarily be just exposed to it) and also get H1N1, and also get an HIV that has mutated to a short incubation time, then you are in trouble. And if HIV mutates to a short incubation time, then it doesn't make any difference what specifically the other infectious agent is.

Could this happen. Well, yes. Is it a probabilistic event? No. So relax on this possibility. Perhaps a better question to ask is if a panic could spread amongst the public creating a buying opportunity for various stocks. Of course.


Singlengle said...

From Reuters

"Different countries may be affected differently by the flu, depending on how the disease spreads in each area, Ryan said. Other factors including the number of people with HIV/AIDS could also affect flu's severity as it reaches poorer countries.

To prepare for this, the WHO has begun to send 2.4 million doses of antivirals to 72 countries including Mexico from stocks donated by Roche (ROG.VX) in 2005 and 2006.

It is also adding to its regional stockpiles around the world and seeking to dispatch diagnostic kits to WHO reference labs worldwide to help them quickly identify H1N1 infections"

Edwardo said...

But what do Pete T and Roger D say?

Anonymous said...

Catching Swine Flu from money? New York Times artical does not bode well for the future of a paper currency. NY State and the Federal Government (both bankrupt) might like the idea of easily traceable plastic money transfers? There is opportunity in every crisis!

Allan, How might this affect the value of gold? Thanks for your thoughts.