Sunday, April 18, 2010

Volcanoes and Black Holes

While researching natural disasters and the stock market, I came across an engaging, albeit out there, theory about how this Iceland volcano may be related to research in France using particle accelerators to create a black hole.

April 13-14 2010: Iceland Eyjafjallajokull volcano erupts again, and its volcanic ash goes over Europe over the next few days and grounds airplanes at airports across Northern Europe. There is a concern that a larger volcano Katla near it could erupt soon. Iceland has more than 100 volcanoes, many could erupt soon. This could be a beginning to major volcano eruptions in Iceland and elsewhere that could cool off the earth, ground air traffic, cause no summer and severe winters. And note that April 14 a bright meteor was seen over Wisconsin. 
Could this volcano and recent earthquakes be related to the CERN LHC particle accelerator experiments in France - either because a Black Hole has already been created by the CERN LHC and is eating earth's core, and could cause increasing earthquakes and volcanoes around the world, leading up to December 2012 Doomsday, or because the CERN LHC experiments may directly affect earth's core and cause quakes and volcanoes. Note that 70,000 years ago the Toba supervolcano erupted in Indonesia and nearly caused the extinction of mankind then. Volcanos can be a major problem for man's survival on earth.

In the just published issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter suggests that a culmination of important stock market cycles has pinpointed the next 10 days as the most likely beginning of his now on-the-surface somewhat discredited yet still simmering beneath in the whelm of the possible, macro wave count of transition from a Wave Two counter-trend bull market to a stunning and devastating Wave Three bear market lasting for about the next five years. 

Prechter's Latest: The Most Important Cycle of the Past Three Decades
Prechter also uses detailed charts and text to spell out a never-before-discussed seven year cycle: he says it amounts to "the most important cycle duration" of the past three decades
So what does all of this have to do with Sunday, April 18, 2010? 

It is a day void of real time market volatility and it's effects on our own, personal market psychology and attitudes.  An opportunity to sit back and reflect upon where the market has brought us this past year and where it might be taking us going forward and what if anything can be done about it.

I have stopped trying to anticipate market turns, it is not a high probability game.  In its place, I have adopted a trend following paradigm and have crafted (read: lifted, tweaked and improved, from a magazine article) a strategy for its implementation that has been working well since its inception, January 2, 2010.  

If the worst case scenario were to unfold, it will do so with my trends on board and account asset values will surely follow, notwithstanding wave counts, volcanoes or French black holes.

Qué Será Será.



Anonymous said...

It's actually in Switzerland....not France.

pimaCanyon said...

The trouble Prechter and his EWI boys have is that they have a serious market bias. They are absolutely sure that their Grand Supercycle Wave Count is correct, and as a result their bias is very bearish and has been since the early 90's. As a result they sat out most of the 90's bull market, sat out the 2003 - 2007 bull market, and sat out most of the bull market that began March 2009.

Prechter (and his subsribers) could benefit from your trend following system! Unlike Precther, your system has no market bias one way or the other. It's neither bearish nor bullish, just reads what the market does and reports on that.

PENN STATE Eric said...

I gotta laugh at the article referencing the LHC potentially causing the volcano and earthquake in Chile....mostly because the LHC (Large Hardon Collider) wasn't operating (particles actually colliding) until March 30th - and the earthquake in Chile was in February...UNLESS of course it has time warping powers too..which of course, we all know couldn't happen either since time doesn't actually exist! This is nerd funny, sorry (self being a nerd).

This brings us to another good point of discussion....Say 'NO!' to crack.

Anyway... GOOD TRADES!

Anonymous said...

I am very close to agreeing.... it may be fruitless to try and forecast market reversal of trends.

the game is too rigged to start with. its way more complex than counting elliott waves.

I was and remain of the opinion that any Giant wave 3 collapse could only come about as the result of WAR...which is always possible at any moment crazy governments decide to create armagheddon.

but I suppose its also possible that some monumental natural disaster could also trigger if the yellowstone caldera blows....that would be like 20 nuclear bombs going off,filling the sky with toxic dust ,that circles the globe and destroys world crops,etc....that sort of thing.wouldnt help civilization too much.

maybe would bring about a savvy investment opportunity in indoor grow lighting systems.

what else....yes,if yellowstone goes up in smoke, we will need a new national wildlife park....
I guess my point is that even while the world is being destroyed ,there is always a bright idea for investors, right down to the last gasping breath of sulphur dioxide or atomic bomb radiation that kills us.

Anonymous said...

Reuters article has various scenarios for the volcanic cloud economic impact. Some may benefit as this puts a wrench into just-in-time delivery commerce.

Might be interesting to watch DRYS & EGLE vs. UPS & FDX; these latter two are components of the DJ Transports Index.

Reuters--volcano scenarios

et vidi et ecce ventus turbinis veniebat ab aquilone et nubes magna et ignis involvens et splendor in circuitu eius et de medio eius quasi species electri id est de medio ignis

Anonymous said...

War is usually bullish. Look at some charts :)

Anonymous said...

Meanwhile, no such divergence appears on the NNVC chart, suggesting a continuing Wave 3 advance, subject to minor pullbacks along the way. It would take a close beneath $2.04 to change the Daily Trend to down.

Closed at $2.01 today so I guess the trend is down. How much further do you expect it to fall?

Anonymous said...

A black hole would make a much bigger mess, much faster, and in many more ways and places, than could be symptomized by recent seismic and volcanic events.

Back to getting rich: $VIX may be a big help in trading NNVC.

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