Monday, April 19, 2010

Chart updates

I sent an interim to my email list this morning, updating the price threshold for SDS flipping Long in its Daily Trend Model.  SDS is moderately leveraged and represents a good proxy for any intermediate market downturn.

 DJIA Daily Trends with EW analysis

Once again we can see a divergence between last week's highs and the Elliott Oscillator in the bottom panel.  A break down here will represent a Mechanical Sell Signal, although for our purposes, a break of the trend line will suffice.

NNVC Daily Trend Model with EW Analysis

Meanwhile, no such divergence appears on the NNVC chart, suggesting a continuing Wave 3 advance, subject to minor pullbacks along the way.  It would take a close beneath $2.04 to change the Daily Trend to down.


FAZ Daily Trend Model



10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan,

As the market pulls back,so does NNVC.

I am looking at 2.15 level..can you comment on this?

Liam

Allan said...

Liam,

Its not that easy. Starting with, "Do you already own any shares of NNVC," I would have to know a whole lot more information to comment on buying here at 2.15. The beauty of the trend models is that you only have to ask one question, "what side of the trend line is price," to have a bullish or bearish opinion. Actually, two questions, the second one being what time frame are you interested in, Weekly or Daily." See, even the minimalist route has potholes.

That said, I stand my my long range forecasts for this stock, to rise much further then current prices. So picking spots to enter becomes less important. I'm a long term B&H bull on NNVC, so current prices are as good as any.

A

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure how a stock like NNVC can keep going down every day while you consider this an "up" trend. Seems to me that anyone who paid $2.50 is losing money.

Maybe I lack a genius brain or something.

Anonymous said...

I guess NNVC's showcase wen't poorly then?

Reza said...

Thanks Allan for posting the FAZ. I am still holding NNVC long term

Anonymous said...

I sold 3,000 shares in my IRA at 2.45 and hold 10,000 shares in my taxable account. Bought back the 3,000 shares at 2.05...if it drops below 2, I will resell those 3,000 plus another 3,000 of my taxable account since it is possible for a very deep plunge if it closes below 2 imo.

Anonymous said...

US Steel daily long or short . Now this stock trends nicelyovxtsom

Anonymous said...

"I'm not sure how a stock like NNVC can keep going down every day while you consider this an "up" trend."

An up trend is not defined by a couple days of action regardless of direction.

It does not take a genius to go back in the last few months and count how many down days versus up days there are. If you can do that and conclude it is going down "every day" as you say than you are looking at a different chart than I.

Anonymous said...

PERSPECTIVE

If NNVC is 'destined' to become a (name your homerun price) $10 stock,$20 stock,$100 stock.... then it doesnt matter whether you own it at $1,or $2, or $3.

But if you think,feel, believe, understand,theorize that NNVC is nothing more than another biotech stock,with no special story, beyond ordinary potential and standard parameters of biotech market process,dependent on the next FDA approval or failure,the next big pharma buyout bid, etc.... and the greater market melt down... then you will always be nervous about buying NNVC at any price.

the wiser question one should be asking is

Do you know how to pick a potential homerun 10 bagger stock ?

do you know how?
do you know what to look for. what due diligence to undertake?
what brilliant revolutionary research looks like?
what superb management looks like? etc
what the right idea at the right time looks like?

what the global evolving civilization of medical breakthroughs and curing of disease ,through revolutionary advances in medical technology....looks like?

It looks like NNVC.
It looks like ISCO.
BTIM.
MRNA
and maybe a few others in the field of stem cell,RNA/DNA ,nano particle,intracellular delivery systems....etc etc

compare the concept to something like
the evolution of the personal computer in the late 1980's ,a few years after Microsoft established itself.

think back further to the early 1970's at the pinball arcade....when there was this outrageous video game called PONG.

When cordless phones were the latest rage in 1990....could you imagine something like these tiny cell phones?

Think about the whole giant medical industry, the disease industry, cancer industry, alzheimers industry.... that has been floundering along NOT curing these diseases for the last 100 years....but making zillions of dollars profit all the while.

Now, for the first time in medical history.....something truly revolutionary is happening.

New advances in the research and technology ,successful trials,forward movement,evolving Cures of disease.
The only thing that can stop stocks like NNVC ,ISCO etc would be the power of a corrupt government that stifles these breakthrough advances.
Why would they do something like that?
They did it before ,in order to protect the money making industries of big pharma and big disease.


revolutionary medical breakthroughs are great for human civilization, but they may spell the downfall of old school technologies that become obsolete. Do you think the cancer(chemo,radiation,big pharma) industry will want to just lay down quietly and disolve.?
or that the government will allow that to happen?

This is my only real concern about investing too heavily in the biotech breakthrough technology.

Anonymous said...

Can you explain why any of those companies have "superb management"? I just took a quick look at NNVC, management say that they have no experience in ever bringing drugs to market.

I would think their lack of expertise would be the major stumbling block, not some government conspiracy.

Seems bets on developing new drugs would be better off being wagered elsewhere.