Friday, April 09, 2010

A tradable edge

On April 1, the GLD Daily Trend Model flipped long, with GLD closing on that day at 110.26.

GLD Daily Trend Model

One week later,  GLD is above 113, for about a 3% gain.  This gain may not look like much on the above chart, but the near-term at-the-money calls are up well over 100%.    The Buy signal didn't come in at the very bottom, but it did come in early enough in the GLD rally to generate some nice gains.  The same can be said for the three other signals shown on the Daily chart above.  I like the way these signals perform, not perfect, but a tradable edge.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan,is this correct about PRV--Priority Review Vouchers...see below....I believe Pat Cox wrote this..

"..I’ve spoken to the company’s CEO, and his excitement about getting Harris’ results is palpable. There is, in fact, plenty of prior clinical evidence on which to base that excitement. So assuming that Harris validates NanoViricides’ nanotech/biotech platform on dengue, the path to approval of its dengue drug is cleared. Not only will that approval process be smoothed, because dengue is an orphan disease itself, it will get NanoViricides a “priority-review voucher.” It can then sell it to finance the rest of the development process.

What’s this worth? Let’s be conservative and say that the Duke University economists were $100 million too high in their valuation of such a voucher. I think these vouchers could actually be worth more than that, for one reason. Drugs that are “first to market” often win out against even superior competitors. A priority review voucher could be a license to kill for a Big Pharma company worried about competition.

Nevertheless, Bill Gates said in 2008 that the priority-review vouchers, “could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.” I’ve found, from personal experience, that arguing with Bill Gates is usually a bad idea. So let’s be ridiculously conservative. “Hundreds of millions of dollars” in its very strictest sense is $200 million. So we won’t quibble.

Now let’s say NanoViricides sells its voucher at only half its value, earning $100 million in revenue. That alone would be an enormous event in the history of the company – handing the company 50% of its market cap in cash. It would, in fact, push up the stock into a new valence orbit. It only begins to explain the importance of this story, though...."
"..Since we’re being conservative in our estimates, however, let’s say NanoViricides did only 10 a year. Without ever manufacturing anything, the company could earn $1 billion annually from voucher sales for years to come..."

Anonymous said...

Looks as if X - US Steel is rolling over.

Terry

Anonymous said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304830104575172280848939898.html?mod=WSJ_Markets_MIDDLETopNews

How can the charts on GS and the Market in general be reasonably accurate when the info provided to you, us , the Public from the Co's is fraudulent? Seems like a house of cards ready to fall, based on lies? Jerry

Anonymous said...

Terry: and Alcoa weak today.

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??!! if trading these so-called metal backed ETFs, ya gotta have a screw loose. Zerohedge.com has run credible stories of how these have zilch backing the shares. Moreover, it is unethical to participate in this fraud which is set up to divert price support coming from people buying real bullion. If you buy these tin cans, you feed the creature from Jekyll Island.

It certainly appears Allan has swallowed the blue pill. Matrix theme

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