Saturday, April 24, 2010

Island of Allan

In the solemnity of our national anthem, this collection of mostly immigrants were unaware that in their future would be a resounding Game 5 victory against a tough, agile and speedy upstart opponent.

In a similar fashion, we embark upon our own challenges, daily.  In this spot, we are taking on the financial markets and in the spirt of Ed Koch, former mayor of NYC,  "How am I doing?"

From a subscriber to my email list:

For months you've been offering a short opinion , while your system was predominately long and right! I think you are at odds with the purpose of a trend following system. Just for the record, your system has been right and profitable, your short opinion has been unprofitable and wrong.

And another, because it meant so much to me:

You are making a difference in my life, outlook, and confidence with regard to trading.
The support you provide, the tutorials, the advice, the lessons, the comment.
I call it the island of Allan in a troubled sea.

Somewhere between the Wings victory last night and these two emails, there is inspiration and penance.   Despite occasional dalliances  with Armageddon scenarios, my work here has uncovered and exploited the absolute truth of the market.  It is not the future, nor the past that guides us, it is the now, a/k/a trend following.

If you're going to follow something, follow #13 above, Pavel Datsyuk, as inspirational as they come, a Russian hockey player for the Detroit Red Wings, but more then that, a boy who loves his job, his work, his passion.  It's in his smile, his way, his karma.  Fallen far from my own, last night I watched in awe as he mastered his game.  Time to step up, Allan.

If you are looking for perfection, you will not find it here, nor in the Red Wings, nor in my writings, my life, or my trend tables.  But as the subscribers above-referenced point out, there is value here, big value, but it comes with fallibility.  Most of Datsyuk's shots don't go in the net, but of the ones that do, they make a difference, a consequential, almost eloquent difference, not only for Pavel, but for his teammates; not only for Allan, but for his teammates. 

Thirteen is a Fibonacci number.  Can we use this to make money in the markets?  Yes, by discarding it in its entirety, it is just a number and tells us nothing about how to make money in stocks.  One less piece of information to deal with in our work.  Eliminate enough errant pucks and what we are left with is something that works; then we trade it.

From my stock trend tables sent out this weekend:

Daily Trends

TNA:    Long;  Bought 2/16/2010 @ 41.70; current 70.78
AAPLLong;  Bought 3/1/2010 @ 208.99; current 270.83
TZA:    Short;  Sold 2/12/2010 @ 10.13; current 5.41

Weekly Trends

SSO:    Long; Bought 3/1/2010 @ 39.91; current 45.43
FAZ:    Short; Sold 3/16/2009 @ 350.00; current 11.09
BIDU:  Long; Bought 3/9/2009 @ 172.66; current 645.76

These are some of the trend table's better trades, so don't for a minute think they are all that good.  In fact, the trend following service didn't even exist last year, so those trades from early 2009 are all pro-forma, hypothetical, but nonetheless are based on the strict application of a rule-based trading system and methodology. The same rule-based system that is in use today, in real time and real money. A few of the above trades reflect real time application of the methodology.

My point, if there has to be one, is that the opportunity and potential to garner impressive profits from application of systematic approach to trading is there, imperfect as it may be.  Throw enough pucks at the net and some are going to go in; just be sure that the ones that miss don't come back to burn you, don't go so far the other way as to score against yourself.  Built into this system is a fail-safe trailing stop discipline that provides a guard against the risk of ruin; a lesson in life in and of itself.

There is more then a pristine beach to this Island of Allan.  Call it a rugged outback, a insect invested swampland, an unbearable abyss of burden and failure.  Its all part of the same asylum.  You have to pick your spots, follow a trend and go with it.  Above all, keep skating, keep you feet moving and don't stop until you find something that works..........then trade it.

And always, always, beware of the dark side:

Finally, an excerpt from the Weekend Update sent out a few hours ago:

The question I pose up front in AllAllan is,

Why are you here?
If the answer is to make money, or to improve your market results, or to find something that works, you are at the right place.  Yes, I occasionally proffer market observations or opinions that stray from strict allegiance to the trend tables and the principles of trend following. But ask yourself this, how boring would this become if all I ever did was repeat the mantra, "Respect the Trends?"

My penance for such digressions (thanks again, "C" for your heads-up observations and email), is to devote an entire Weekend Update to illustrate the ease, elegance and efficiency of this trading system. 

Enough words and explanations.  Let's get on to the Trend Tables.  In the spirit of "C's" observations, I will let the symbols, tables and trends speak for themselves this week. Instead of trying to figure out where the markets are going in the future, let us focus completely on what direction they are going now.  That is clearly set out in the tables below, believe in what you see, it is the absolute, unbending, tough-love truth.



Anonymous said...

"The hunger for facile wisdom is the root of all false philosophy." ~ George Santayana

In this talk, Didier Sornette describes a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash.

Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse.

Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble."

This view implies the possibility of predicting such events and Sornette will describe the current status of predictions that he and his collaborators have made for events in various markets.

Anonymous said...

while most of us here are trying to acquire big bucks all at once, here is a dude that is quite satisfied to get little amounts.

and perhaps there is a lesson in his attitude for us when viewing that sometimes Allan's trades are scalps of smaller moves and not always big elephants.

Here are some words from a young French woman. Her aim was not money, but spirituality. However, the insight is also relevant to trading markets (just substitute the words).

Instead of being discouraged, I concluded that God would not inspire desires which could not be realised, and that I may aspire to sanctity in spite of my littleness. For me to become great is impossible. I must bear with myself and my many imperfections; but I will seek out a means of getting to Heaven by a little way--very short and very straight, a little way that is wholly new. We live in an age of inventions; nowadays the rich need not trouble to climb the stairs, they have lifts instead. Well, I mean to try and find a lift by which I may be raised unto God, for I am too tiny to climb the steep stairway of perfection.

~ Thérèse of Lisieux (L'Histoire d'une Âme, c. 1912)

Anonymous said...

another angle to a concept of how and why markets crash is what I might call the

evil ,immoral,corrupt power structure of the British/American government/rothschild central bank system

which once it got control of the countries (any country) monetary system

proceeded to control the whole country.

A.M.Rothschild,himself,acknowledged this .

His wife was quoted to say that if her sons didnt want wars there would be no wars.

Since the internet has made this hidden history available to the public,theres no excuse for anyone not to know this economic history 101 by now.

Markets crash because these power elite controlers of markets WANT them to crash. They create the bubble markets, and burst the bubbles, whenever the timing suits them;making their fortunes in both directions,just like they fund both sides of a war.
They caused a crash and depression in 1837 or whenever the time was right after Jackson defeated their campaign to establish the (fed reserve central bank)

They did it in 1907 ,to establish the fed in 1913(thats when They won the great war for Control of the USA)

They crashed the market in 1929 and 2008.

Right now They are blowing the bubble back up again.

The public is barely able to stay aware of their current moves and tricks

while the elite power system is executing a master plan that has probably been thought out and through dozens of moves ahead of the current movement you see.

And because we are smart on one hand and very naiive on the other, we think we can play this rigged market successfully.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous, these are one of the best, even not new comments I have read in the entire web recently. I am aware of the Rothschild forces manipulation. Unfortunately they had enough time to grow and anchor their devilish agenda among the nations. They have orchestrated the shift of China (export of technology, management, jobs and wealth ). They corrupt governments including US, China, Europe. But they can't control social mood indefinitely. The change is coming and they will be forced out of power. We as individuals have no resources and enough strength to fight dark forces but collective mood could do miracles . We should never stop educating ourselves and balance all the information including conventional, corrupted media and independent sources as Gerald Celente, Martin Armstrong, Alex Jones, Dylan Ratigan, Regina Cantina, Robert Prechter and his socionomics.
We won't be lost in this modern world created by forces behind the curtain or even by our own personal mess. Allan's forum is perfect platform for me not only for educational purposes but because of his oasis of humanity and personal touch. Thank you Alan, for this.


Anonymous said...

OY veh! Anon and LILI, you're out there on the edge! Alan, what does the Priory of Scion (SP) have to say these days?
It's all up to GS and the PPT in my mind.

Anonymous said...

"out there on the edge"

do you mean
the edge of understanding? yes

the edge of insight ?

do you actually NOT know about the history of economic warfare thats been the driving force behind all wars and all power plays executed by the british/rothschild power structure since 1800 ??
I cant imagine you are one of the few remaining souls who doesnt know this newly released history.

newly released,since the last 20 years. but imagine the power that this elite group has over media,education,business,and government, that they can keep the truth from the public for 200 years !!! like they did.

I dont know how much 'control' they have over china and russia,Lili, I suspect they dont have that much control.

the hope for humanity lies with russia and china,brazil and india.south america.

any place that has the power to say no to the elite new world order.

The citizens of the USA have NO power to stop anything the government intends to do.

Thats the great weakness and the worst recipe for disaster.
We lost our voting power when the government installed the diebold machines right under our noses. and no protests ensued.

There is so much good info on the internet to research,theres no excuse for people not to know these things.

I read that Goldman set up Greece to fail. it was inevitable.

I believe if investors really understood how corrupt and how rigged the market game is they would Never put their money and life savings into play.

But since its the only game in town,we have to.

unless you think you can survive on making 4.58 % in a CD. while inflation ratchets up 10 % a year.

Food for thought
about inflation

From 2-3 years ago's prices,at trader joes,

Maple syrup now costs 125 % more (more than double)

fruit has tripled in price.

bread has doubled

pasta has doubled

wheat wafer crackers almost
doubled in price from 3 years ago. (1.49 to 2.79)

can of tomatoes went from .89 to 1.49 thats 61%

cheese up 50% +

frozen blueberries 80%

yoghurt 90%

but they keep that banana at 19 cents so folks fail to realize the inflation.

container sizes cut by 25 %
keeping the price the same,is a 25 % increase in cost.

you all see that one dont you?

and their next step will be to raise the price on the small container when youve forgotten to think about it.


got gold and silver ??