Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Socionomics In One Lesson

Could the 11,000-Point Dow Make Us All Miserable?

If a group of predictive theorists are to be believed, the market's about to nosedive — and Americans will get very, very angry... about everything. So is it B.S., or might a national malaise take down Obama?

By John H. Richardson (Esquire, April 14, 2010, link below)

For decades, stock investors have known that hemlines track stocks — that short skirts mean good times. That's always been my philosophy, for sure. But there's definitely a dark side to ponder: Did you know that bear markets tend to trigger wars? That the size of a war almost always correlates with the size of the bear market that preceded it? That the use of words like "we" and "they" appear to increase as economic trouble approaches? That the popularity of horror movies increase as economic trouble approaches? (Seriously: Check out this report and see how Night of the Living Dead, released at a market peak in 1968, was followed by steady erosion in stocks accompanied by the mood music, as it were, of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, Halloween, and finally, in 1980, at the grim bottom of the '70s recession, by Friday the 13th).

These statistics come courtesy of the Elliott Wave theorists, a cult of chart obsessives who try to predict the stock market by following trends in social mood — most recently, in an article in The Socionomist (the Elliott Wave newsletter) that follows the current growth of secessionist sentiment — the militias, the tenthers, the birthers, the federal-reserve haters, the fad for nullification of federal laws. A recent Rasmussen poll found the gap between the government and the people as big as the one that preceded the Revolution — just 21 percent of voters now believe that our government rests on the consent of governed, which is a founding principle of our country. To help track all this, the Socionomist article includes the first-ever index of secessionism as it corresponds to dips in the stock market — which is, it turns out, pretty damn close.

The bad news is that the theorists think civil war is a "distinct possibility."

Complete article here

More Socionomics


13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wow, do people actually trade according to these Elliott Wave crackpots?

Anonymous said...

allan,
i insist on cxm this time feels different...after all i knew it from this blog

Allan said...

Re: CXM

I wrote it up one year ago at 1.65, it promptly doubled in two months and has fallen way back since then. I don't follow it much anymore, so won't comment further.

Anonymous said...

had i own the same discipline of yours i wouldn't have been following it either
well still learning from my mistakes until further notice

David said...

Allan:
Are CGEN and ISCO still in your basket? Thanks.

Allan said...

Re: mistakes

I continue to make my share of mistakes. I make them in my picks, in my career and vocation, in my personal life. This past year has been relentless, breaking my will, my spirit, my self. This is where some banal concept attributes mistakes to the learning process, but instead all that is left are the embers of a life on the verge of burning out. There are times when my mistakes cover my mirrors in shame, fatigue and regret. In the end, we have to live with whoever is left standing and hope that whatever legacy survives, will include something, anything, else, then mistake after mistake after mistake. The angst of March, suffocating, oppressive, unbearable, still reigns.....

MMarino said...

I trade Elliot Wave theory...

Allan,

What's your take on GTF?

Anonymous said...

Prechter and his gang have kept me out of much of this monster rally long enough. They see a top every other day. Worst money i have ever spent is on an EWI subscription.He will bw right again someday , but so is a broken clock right 2 times a day. Its all about making your own plays here, and ATR signals are the only way to trade. Just my opinion FWIW.

Anonymous said...

I agree with you. Prechter I believe sold out of the market when the DOW hit about 9600. They missed this whole move up to 11000.

Anonymous said...

Allan, we are all human after all ...

Anonymous said...

S.K. primer for those in despair:

There are three kinds of despair presented in The Sickness Unto Death by the existentialist philosopher Søren Kierkegaard (1813-55, Denmark):

1. being unconscious in Despair of having a Self,
2. not wanting in Despair to be Oneself,
3. and wanting in Despair to be Oneself.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickness_Unto_Death

salubrious Slovak music

Anonymous said...

the Operators have the NDX futures gunned +14 points right now.

however, at the same time the Asian markets, xJapan, are sluggish. Also, AAPL after-hours had been +6% but settled nearly unchanged (though difficult to say if this has to do with earlier trade settlements or not).

If the 61.8% Fibonacci on SP500 matters, then tomorrow might be interesting sea change.

"I am not afraid. I was born to do this." ~ St. Joan of Arc

Anonymous said...

Why do we have to ruminate so much about life?/ Why can't we just enjoy life (as it comes/evolves) on a day to day basis??