Thursday, April 15, 2010


In the midst of a mindless rally, a new Short has garnered my attention; TEVA.  Why has a hot stock in a hot sector (Generic Pharmaceuticals) flipped to a Sell in its Daily Trend Model?  We don't know, nor do we care.  Respect.

Below are two TEVA charts.  The first one uses the standard Trend Model 2.0  and the second one uses my new beta version Trend Model 4.0  with wider settings that result in fewer trades at the expense of efficiency in both entry and exits.   This will be a good test and example of how these two models differ in their approach to trend following.

TEVA Daily Trend Model 2.0

TEVA Daily Trend Model 4.0
(Bar colors & price entries are from Model 2.0)


Anonymous said...


I have to say publicly, as a subscriber to your service, I am truly impressed with the ongoing innovations. This experiment being an excellent example. I find it heartening that you "Walk your Talk" when you say "Find something that works and stick with it".

The constant fine tuning in your system along with the adjustments you have made in presenting that system to us are excellent.

So, not only are we subscribers getting great results already, we know that each tweak will only insure those profits further down the road.

I guess what I'm trying to say is:
Your yen for self-improvement (at many levels) is encouraging!

keep up the good work.


Anonymous said...

As soon as I saw you announce your TEVA short, I started guessing how much it would go up today.

Well, could have been worse.

MMarino said...


Would you say it's wise to put a order in to short my position on NNVC if it hits the daily reversal? I think this would be a good way to go about business seeing as were fit for a wave 4 correction.


Anonymous said...

MMarino said...

If you wanna short, select a bear ETF.

Although NNVC has had good volume past weeks/months, it is still an OTC-BB stock. These can be illiquid.

Besides, Allan has presented NNVC as an investment vehicle, not as a trading vehicle. The way I view the sell signals is that they are opportunity to nip a profit with hopefully the opportunity to buy back in again later -- all the while maintaining a core position of minimum 10,000 shares.

Lastly, while I believe NNVC can get monkey-hammered in case of a fall of the general stock market, it is also an odd story stock that could one day surprise with an opening price that would make you as short wet your knickers. It is quite probable that one day it opens up $5-10 higher (above any stop-loss). ... Wham! This would not merely be a loss on a short, but something that could take one out of the game altogether.

The key, especially in the first five years of being a trader, is to "live to fight another day".

serenity ... Mozart Clarinet Concerto