Thursday, September 03, 2009


It seems that Gold has taken center stage this week, so a quick look-see at some pertinent charts.

XAU - 90 minute

My ninety-minute charts are my segue between intra-day and swing trading. Above is a 90 minute chart of the Gold & Silver Index, XAU. As most everyone knows by now, gold stocks have been charging up the past few days, a clear Wave 3 thrust on shorter-term charts.

XAU - Weekly

The Weekly view looks pretty good for move up toward the 200 level. Once there, prices should encounter resistance at the old highs, between 200-210 from March and July of 2008. These levels can be seen as more significant on the Monthly chart below:

XAU - Monthly

Also noteworthy on the Monthly view is the False Bar Stochastic, which could be on the threshold of a long-term SELL SIGNAL right at those resistance levels in the weeks and months ahead. If prices instead bolt up through resistance toward 300 as the Monthly wave count suggests, Gold could be entering into a multi-year bull market. So 200-210 will carry a lot of weight going forward.

Here are some charts of individual gold stocks suggested in my June 3rd, "Perspective on Gold Stocks."

ANV - Daily

SWC - Daily

AUY - Daily

NG - Daily

SLV - Daily

I intend to take a more in-depth view of this sector over the long holiday week-end and if appropriate, will add a few good looking charts to the mix.



Anonymous said...

Allan - thank you for the gold charts. Are you still bearish on the S&P even with markets flat to positive reaction to negative data, jobless claims, etc., thus far?


The Chartist said...

Curious as to settings you use for BWT.

A said...

Ron: nothing has changed in my outlook

Christopher: BWT settings --> Sensitiity = 1.4 ATR

A said...

Christopher: BWT settings: Sensitivity = 1.4 ATR Volatility Stop factor = 1.5

Anonymous said...

Nice charts, Allan. Splosion just might be coming our way. Pray for a pullback. LOL

TheHammersmith-Etsy said...

Allan. Won't gold drop if deflation kicks in? and then once we hit 800-700ish, we'll have final support to blast off?...I thought Prechter said something like that

TheHammersmith-Etsy said...

not sure if you had already noticed this on the hub. fact sheet from their last presentation (1 sept, nnvc)

Pivot Trend said...


What is your stop of your short positions? Or what (like at what point of SPX) will change your current outlook of the market? Market seems to refuse to go down anymore.

Much thanks!

A said...

Pivot Trend: The 50% fib retracement is at 1016 (SPX) and the 61.8% is at 1021. Prices would have to exceed those levels to invalidate my thesis that new leg down has begun. Meanwhile stops on my day-trading positions are of course much closer, but I will go in and out with short-term trends as market dictates my positions, not the other way around.

Richard168 said...


Is the ATR Trailing Stop function part of the BWT Indicators? If not, where do you get the ATR Trailing Stop code?



A said...

Richard: Blue Wave has its own ATR based stop component, which is what my answer above was referring to.

The ATR_TrailingStop Model is a distinct trading model unrelated to Blue Wave and can be found on many charting platforms. The one I use is from eSignal.

Pivot Trend said...

Thanks, Allan. I am in short! GL!

singlengle said...

ever consider adding ACTC to one of your baskets. Todays close may be a good add. A little research could go a long way

Anonymous said...

Allan et all,

What are your thoughts on the market's positive upward movement after news that unemployment is rising and is tat the highest in 26 years?


Anonymous said...

Bear market rallies can be bigger than you think: 40% more upside on S&P --- based on "S&P 1990- equals Nikkei 1980-"? See this picture from a Bloomberg article:

Allan: what do you think?

thomas said...

Nice charts to study,Allan. thanks. Aside from gold ...any chance you might consider doing the same examination of Oil producers?
I have a feeling the real key sector now is going to be oil stocks,and gold is going to be used as a sort of ... diversion tactic .Curious to see your thoughts about oil stocks. producers and such.

Anonymous said...

I think you might enjoy this allan.

Anonymous said...


So clearly we can classify you as a "Gold Bug" correct?

Anonymous said...

cup and handle on nnvc

Anonymous said...

Dont forget about SRSR