Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Bird Flu Update

This piece of news from Monday has investment ramifications written all over it:

New strain of bird flu found in China

Now read this from a couple of weeks ago:

Governments still dithering on bird flu
A third of countries haven't pinned down vaccine plans, study finds

It was about nine months ago when we had a bona fide run on bird flu stocks. From the most speculative penny stocks (NNVC) to blue chip pharmaceuticals (SNY) and everything in-between, profits were fast and furious. Last March I posted this list of potential bird flu plays. For playing the sector going into flu season, any combination thereof would be a good start and for what its worth, the list still represents a compilation of my favorite bird flu stock plays, starting with NVAX and NNVC, which one of you pointed out in a comment under my previous blog.


Monday, October 30, 2006

The Next QCOM

Back in the mid-1990's, George Gilder was one of the first technology analysts to identify QCOM as "the next QCOM." In the past ten years, QCOM has gone up 100 fold, going from a split adjusted 50 cents to over $50 and is currently in the mid-$30's.

It is clear from Gilder's newsletter, The Gilder Technology Report, that this decade's QCOM is appearing on his radar screen just about as clear as QCOM was ten years ago. The company in Lanoptics, but the gem is a wholly owned division called EZChip

is a thinly traded $14 stock, with an initial price target north of $85 according to Gilder. I'm in at lower prices, but if Gilder is right again, it won't matter what you pay for it in 2006, it will be a lot higher in 2008. With that kind of appreciation, one pick a decade is fine with me.


Monday, October 16, 2006

Letters to the Blogger

Although I try to answer timely questions here ASAP after they are posted, I also get a lot of private email, general questions about me, about my trading methods and the markets. What follows are some questions and answers that I think might be helpful to everyone, or at least easy enough to answer so as to make me look good.

Allan, you don't seem to be posting much anymore, what's up?

I thought you would never ask. First of all, I don't want to publish blogs just for the sake of publishing a blog, there are enough bloggers doing that. Posting trading ideas is my favorite kind of blog, so they take priority assuming I have the time, have already established my position (you knew that, right?), and believe that there is still enough time to get into the idea and make a buck. AMRI is a perfect example, I bought in under $10, posted it soon thereafter and it's now at $11.00, all in about one week. Win-win-win.

Secondly, I have been very busy since late summer setting up my second investment fund, Northern Sky Partners, II. The story behind NSKY, II is a fascinating example of how the Internet can not only be instrumental in creating wonderful trading systems but can also put the right people together to capitalize and leverage resources. A vulture fund manager on the east coast who is also a reader of my blog contacted me this summer and asked if I would be interested in taking in some institutional investors and managing a fund based on my trading methodologies. I had already done this once, based on my day-trading system, to wit: Northern Sky Partners I. After a little tweaking I was able to adapt my system to accomodate much larger amounts of funds under management.

The only caveat was that I wanted to offer the new fund to my exisiting clients first, before taking it to institutional investors. Well, within about 48 hours of being told of the second fund, all my exisiting clients jumped into the new fund and we were off to the races. Setting things up for the institutions has been an enormous task and we are just now finishing up the dotting of the i's and crossing of the t's. Yes, my blog has suffered a bit because of it, but what a great opportunity for me and my clients, some of whom have been with me since 1983.

By-the-way, NSKY I was up just over 40% in both it's first two years of trading. We must be doing something right.

Who or what is, "Sally?"

One of my many short-term strategies is to buy stocks that have significant insider buying. A trading partner of mine wrote a program that scans the SEC site for real time Form 4 filings that reveal the latest insider purchases of their own company's stock. He named his program, "Sally." We decided to share Sally with everyone, because, (1) technology enabled us to do so with little work on our part, and (2) because we were certain that it would not interfere with our own trading, and (3) because we thought it was one of the simplist of our methods that we could share and give the trading public something for nothing. So Sally is simply a free, real time, insider alert service. Trading these alerts is an art, but at least you have a fighting chance having the information as soon as just about anyone has it.

Allan, I bought xxxx [insert symbol here] at xx.xx [insert price here] and wondered if you think I should sell it or hold it or buy more?

This is probably the most asked question of them all. I usually answer by describing what I did under the same or similar circumstances. But what it usually comes down to is you have a small profit and wonder if it is large enough to take or if the stock is going higher in which case you should hold longer.


I would rather have ten tiny profits then one large wait-and-see.

I, you, he, she, they, them, Nixon, Koufax, everyone, on this blog and reading these words makes money T-R-A-D-I-N-G. They don't call it Buy and Hope for nothing.

Who are you?

My name is Allan Harris. I spent 17 long, hard years as an attorney in Atlanta, Georgia. I got married and had kids, moved to the beach, gave up the law, met a girl, got a divorce, changed time zones and now trade for a living. I love what I do, who I am with and those two teen-aged daughters who miss me, left far across the land and who I hope some day will understand. I played hockey in college and rode a bike every day on the South Carolina beach, but my body has grown older, stiffer, rounder and I sit more now then I move. I dreamed a thousand dreams and lived in-between them all, until about 3 years ago, when magic and fate came knocking and I reached for the golden ring. Who am I? All of the above. Quiet in your thoughts, in a moment of secret wonder.

I never felt magic crazy as this
I never saw moons knew the meaning of the sea
I never held emotion in the palm of my hand
Or felt sweet breezes in the top of a tree
But now you're here
Brighten my northern sky.

So how do we reach you by email?

Click on "View My Complete Profile" and you will be taken to a Contact Link.



Wednesday, October 11, 2006

NNVC - news

NanoViricides, Inc. Presents at FDA Nanotechnology Meeting
Wednesday October 11, 7:30 am ET
Final Draft of Form 10-SB for SEC Submission Completed

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc, (Pink Sheets: NNVC - News) President and Chairman, Dr. Anil Diwan, presented a talk at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Public Meeting on Nanotechnology in Bethesda, MD on Oct. 10.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006


AMRI is running this morning, a delayed reaction to the NRPH news yesterday about their ADHD drug. NRPH is up about 90% in 24 hours. Can AMRI be far behind? Here is a link why AMRI is running:

AMRI Announces Long Term Manufacturing Agreement with New River Pharmaceuticals

I bought into AMRI under $10, it's at $10.50 now, but might be headed a lot higher.