Tuesday, May 18, 2010

No reason to get excited

No reason to get excited
The thief he kindly spoke
There aren't many here among us
That feel that life is but a joke
But you and I we've been through that
And this is not our fate
So let us not talk falsely now
The hour is getting late

Below an update on the DJIA and VXX, the charts countering the love-fest on CNBC  as the market etches out yet another Wave 2 rally.  Note the Fibonacci levels and where the the longer term (Daily) trend model gives up the ghost and flips LONG.....hint.....it's a long way up there....10,951.

 For very short term trading

Another indication for short-term trading only

Conversely mirroring the above two DJIA charts

The dominant trend for position traders

Is this rally the beginning of a spanking new uptrend, or an opportunity to enter new Short positions in concert with the dominant trend?  The weight of the evidence suggests the latter, unless and until the 0.618 Fibonacci levels are clearly exceeded.



Padre3210 said...

MMRF is taking a 16% haircut this morning. Fox Business and others published their Sharholders Letter:


Anonymous said...

Allan- Do you believe that the VXX chart is a fair representation of the actual VIX? It seems that there is a significant tracking error between the two. I guess my question is: could that tracking error effect the chart?

ilene said...

For anon, might check out Vix and More, here's a post from Bill -- http://www.philstockworld.com/2010/05/05/vix-tops-are-notoriously-difficult-to-call/