Monday, October 05, 2009


I went into today's trading heavily short and received another market lesson in humility (as evidenced by the tone of my exchanges today in the Comments). That said, not much has changed in the bigger picture.

SPX Daily

As is shown on the above Daily SPX chart, today's rally was not robust enough to move the Daily model to a Buy, as it remains on a Sell.

DJIA Daily

DJIA 90 minute

The 90 minute chart did flip long mid-day, but is tracing out a fractal of the larger Weekly chart and looks like for a turn down in the next few bars.

DJIA Weekly

Weekly Sell triggers are 9370 for BWT and 9350 for ATR. A 200+ point decline tomorrow on the DJIA will suggest all hell is about to break loose.

DJIA 60 minute

This might be my favorite of them all. The software is confused and has thrown up letters instead of numbers for its count, always a sign of indecision. But the False Bar Stochastic has erased its oversold condition from Friday and has already crossed over, although is still in overbought territory. Any decline tomorrow will trigger an FBS Sell Signal. Hopefully that will coincide with a BWT and/or ATR Sell and provide for a high confidence Short trade.



Anonymous said...

Not much has changed in the bigger picture? How many times have you got to be wacked in the head before you realize this market isnt going to turn on a dime and give you what you think it should?

Anonymous said...

My previous attempts to "will" the market one direction or another have been unsuccessful.

Anonymous said...

MC has SPY on sell weekly...what more do you want? Follow the trend. Right?

T said...

....Be patient,Allan, ....just count the waves...from sept.17
this last friday was the completion of 5 waves down...that was(could be) wave 1 of 5 of (5)
now today (full moon reversal) began the wave 2 of 5 of (5)
Watch and count the waves and the wave structure.
Dont get 'lost inside the vision provided by the trading machines'.... step outside it from time to time and 'look' with your eyes and mind....and count the waves.

from sept 17 to oct 2 = 5 waves down = 1 { 1 of 5 of (5)}

The 'moon energy time frame' was new moon (sept 17) to full moon (oct 2/5)
to be followed by the next wave = up 50 % fib goes to the 1055-1060 3 basic waves...a-b-c. broken down into sub waves of ...5 up - 3 down - 5 up ...moon energy time frame ...oct5(full moon) to the oct 17 area (new moon) to complete wave 2.
target area for failure...the 1060 channel bottom,50 % fib, etc.

Today, I saw possibilities of double tops and double bottoms...stretching out for the next few avert the major collapse ,and delay it for this quarter.

be patient. watch and count the waves.
we cant know where the next big bottom will be until just before we get there.
the june top is a key support point. the july bottom is the critical one. In between, is a good target for wave 3 of 5 of (5) down.

Anonymous said...

"MC has SPY on sell weekly...what more do you want? Follow the trend. Right?"

I have the weekly MC sell signal at 101.99 which did not trigger today according to my data.


Wayne said...

Hey Eric, if I understand MC's triangles, then SPY should have gotten a red triangle last week when it breached 102.39 (previous 3-week low).


Anonymous said...

Hi Wayne,

Thanks for the note. My understanding of the MC triangles is the previous 3 weeks low not including the current week. If that is the case then according to data the sell point would have been 101.90 which was not quite touched.


Anonymous said...

Anyone else expecting NNVC to trade down to the private placement price, .57cents withing the next days? Buying opportunity? BTW, if there is a market crash as Allan Baminvestors anticipate will gold and silver sell off temporarily, like last year?

I'm following baminvestors twitter site and their SPY Nov. 95 PUTS

Anonymous said...

MC: According to my chart the 3 week low of 101.99 on 10/2 on the weekly SPY took out the previous 3 week low of 102.09.

This is the SPY Pacific Exchange ETF

Wayne said...

Hey Eric, it looks like different charts have printed different lo's for 9/8. On bigcharts, yahoo and in Scottrade the low is 102.39, but as you said, shows 101.90. I don't know what MC printed.


Anonymous said...

Don t worry Allan. How could you know that for no other reason than manipulation Goldman would upgrade the banks