Thursday, October 01, 2009

The big one

Here is a look at the Weekly charts, the first two are SPX, the third one DJIA:


It is the breaking of those up channels that will be the next significant event, the big one, if you will.

Those levels are about 1000 for the SPX and 9000 for the DJIA.


A

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

Now THIS looks logical.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Allan.

Finally weekly sell signal is confirmed.

Rich

Ubreako said...

Allan, any chance of another interview with NNVC management. Many things are happening with the technology plus the industry players which have gotten H1N1 aprovals. What are the Private equity people thinking?

I found the last one really helpful. candid and frank answers are the best.

Anonymous said...

Hi al,
In this very critical day when the market is on the brink of confirming a long announced change of direction, I want to draw your attention again on a stock that might might be bucking trend, up 24% today...
LWLG
THe rumor mill has it that test results and long awaited prototype update are due next week...
Check it out...

Take care, and GLTA
AR.

PS: I acted yesterday and took positions in TZA, EDZ and TYP

Allan said...

Re: LWLG

Still holding from $0.65:

http://allallan.blogspot.com/2009/05/lwlg.html

Took over four months to double, who has that kind of time? Let's see how long it takes to double again.

Tom said...

Allan,

Wondering if you subscribe to BAM Investor and if so what you think about them?

Thanks Tom/NJ

Allan said...

Re: BAM

Tom, this is a new one for me, but it's temporarily free on Twitter, so I'm monitoring along. From the video and what I have seen of their work so far, I'm impressed.

Anonymous said...

Allan,

I've been following your blog learning many new things :-)

With exception of maybe GSA (which seems a bargain by many measures, I may never subscribe to financial newsletter again!).

I made substantial gains going long index and to lesser degree a few fav. stock plays Sept.4th exiting Sept 25th following many your ideas I've adopted in my trading arsenal.

I must admit, I hesitated going short when I suspect you did, but if I get more confirmation on "the big one" I'll be sure to climb aboard.

I'd name my 1st son Allan, but I have too many vowels in my last name. I don't think it would match.....lol

Lucky Luciano

Anonymous said...

Allan,
Let's say this thing falls apart. How are you thinking of managing counterparty risk (Futures, ETFs). I think you would have to make an early exit to cash by necessity. Got gold?
Best,
Goldfungus

Allan said...

Goldfungus: peyote

Anonymous said...

LOL Save some for me.

Anonymous said...

Can I take credit for LWLG? I posted earlier this year. I am in at .55

L

Allan said...

Absolutely, I gave you credit in the original LWLG blog, nice one.

Allan said...

Re: Got gold?

No, but I do know where you live. Thinking of crashing with you and the wife in case everything paper becomes worthless (except the rolling kind)...especially looking forward to working out in your gym, to be close to you know who...

Dave said...

Makes sense to me, the peyote that is. Great minds and the desert. One hell of a combination. We could solve all of the world's problems.

Anonymous said...

You sure you want to be in L.A. when the sh*t hits the fan? LOL As far as the gym goes I see Ryan in there with her all the time. He's got his eye on her like a hawk. LOL
G F

Allan said...

Yea, but does Ryan have a Blog?

Anonymous said...

Yes, he has a big log.

Anonymous said...

Can FED keep manipulating markets?
Bob Prechter says its rather impossible but look at this video of Rep. Alan Grayson: "Has the Federal Reserve Ever Tried to Manipulate the Stock Market?"
Very amusing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXmNpdYpfnk&feature=player_embedded

Lili

thomas said...

ok. because I have no life,I spent all day drawing out every single wave and sub wave with price points and time frame (estimates,of course) for the whole Wave 5 down.

I would like to post it here in simple numbers , a simple list,without the long winded explanations I usually give.
but I wont unless Allan says ok.
the bottom line is that wave 5 has started at the sept 18/21 new moon top (1078) s+p 500....... and through a series of many sub waves from now until maybe a year from now....I see wave 5 of 5 of (5) bottoming at the 525 area on the s+p 500.....IF it wasnt triggered by WAR. with a WAR trigger ,I see the bottom at the 400 area.

the time frame for the WAR trigger I see around the s+p 500 july bottom range in the area of 900 to 950....around MAY 2010 May to June 2010. IF diplomatic negotiations Fail,and decisions are taken to go to WAR this will trigger wave 3 of 5 of (5) down as a crash from 940 to the March low of 640. with wave 4 going up a little and wave 5 completing the collapse in the fall 2010 .

If I am correct in this forecast I would like to receive a tip for any gains you have made...lol just kidding.
what I would really like is to know what J.Taylors forecast looks like ,if its at all similar.

The key is the issue of a WAR trigger.

In between this big wave 5 down are 2 Last Chance opportunities for the world to avoid catastrophic disaster.
This would look in elliot wave terms as a change of wave count.... from a 5 WAVE DOWN ...to become a 'wave B' down .... holding at (1st chance) the july bottom (900 area)(time frame- January 2010).....failing that will come a true "last chance" to establish a "wave B" bottom. the time frame would be May-June 2010 which short circuits the big subwave 3 of 5 down ,turns wave 3 subwave 1 and 2 into a subwave d and e of wave 2( a-b-c-d-e),which IF followed by another (transition) a-b-c wave holding at the july bottom,becomes the bottom of Wave B ,double bottom ....and the political trigger for this change of wave would be the diplomatic resolution between global powers to avoid WAR (iran?) and or the onset of what could become World War 3.
time frame May-June 2010.

but for now, the current wave structures look intact for subwave 1 of 5 of (5) to take the s+p 500 to the July Bottom ...time frame (my estimate) december 17 to january 17 area.(january 1 ??)


See?! I told you,I have no life.

thomas said...

One last thing,I forgot to mention .
IF wave 5 down is 'changed' and becomes a wave B down,holding at the july bottom around 900 on the (s+p 500), whether it happens in january 2010 or june 2010...the next wave C ,of course, goes UP to the target for such a wave...maybe 1100 or 1200.
I think that would be nicer than world war 3.

Anonymous said...

Thomas,

Thanks for your posts, but...GET A LIFE!!!

Anonymous said...

If today is solidly down, say 30 SPX points, it's over.

The US as a country had been dead for a long time. Fighting two losing wars doesn't help and the only good news is the troops are canon fodder and the increasing death pool over there makes the US smarter.

But take that flag down, remove Memorial Day and Labor Day as holidays.

The US is a dead empire. With a 12 Trillion debt it cannot pay off.

Allan you are right. If we lose 30 SPX points today or cumulatively in the coming days, short everything to hell and get out of this country.

Doug P.

Anonymous said...

Not so fast Doug. The last administration slipped something past that only one other country has ever done in history. They passed a tax rule that taxes you on all your possessions like they were earned in the year you emigrate. So you can leave the country if you want, but you're giving a third of all you have to your ex Uncle Sam. The only other country that ever did this? Nazi Germany.

Anonymous said...

Possible End Game for the Fed:

All Western countries are leveraged to the hilt. Stimulus has failed and their economies aren't going anywhere until all the debt is written down. Ben needs an end game.

The only way out of this is to debase the currency, but that creates problems with other countries. However, when large groups of countries all need to do so, it's a lot easier. What if all of the central banks with failed economies conspired to debase their currencies together? We already know they conducted currency swaps that led to the rally in the dollar, so further cooperation in the form of an end game strategy isn't unlikely.

If the West debases their worthless paper together, would the hurt be felt by their own citizens? After all, a fiat currency only has worth vis a vis another currency.

The end result would be the debtors would escape poverty, the average Joe would still be able to afford goods from other Western nations, and our creditors would get screwed. China would lose a large chunk of the debt owed them, and they would be priced right out of the Western markets or would have to follow suit with their own currency.

Maybe there's a good reason why the Fed is fighting being audited. They can't afford to have their end game revealed.

China better watch out, they are a bunch of bureaucratic government mopes who got rich from the status quo, and they are dealing with the most ruthless, conspiring criminals the West can field.

The currency markets are where the money is to be made in the near future. Anybody want to be GS starts ramping up currency trading based on inside information?

T said...

...Anonymous,the last one, you, no, not the other 'anonymouses' you,... no, not you, ...end game idea....yes,I like what youre saying. sounds very plausible.
strategically correct idea.
I'm wanting to know which currencies I should look to invest in, foreign cd's etc...from everbank? anything look good to you? renminbi? or something to do with what you said...the currencies, and like owning gold bullion, maybe a good hedge would be owning the yuan. but I dont know what they have planned for establishing a new international dollar standard, peged to what basket of things, etc.... should we buy gold before? or after? keep the dollar now as it recovers a bit? or when...etc...timing issue. as well as vehicle to invest in.
your ideas?