Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Playing the game

First, the five minute chart that we have been following all day Tuesday




Next the Daily chart that we have been following for the past few weeks




Analysis


The market strength of the past couple days was unexpected, but by monitoring the short term trend it was possible to stay mostly on the right side of trading. This trend is dynamic, can turn on a dime, or in a few minutes and this is hard to characterize in a single evening blog. That was the reason I periodically threw up the 5 minute model today, its an example of how to be wrong on the forecast, but profitable in trading.

The Daily chart is more problematic. Today's rally was strong enough to generate end-of-day Buys on both BWT and ATR. Yet the five minute model remains on a Sell overnight. It happens. Personally, I am holding my short-term positions Short, based on how accurately this model tracked the trend today and upon my Intermediate and Longer Term forecasts that remain hard down for October. Should the five minute model flip Long tomorrow, so will I, that's how to play the game.


A

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan, Goldman Sachs wants you off the bus before they turn it downtown. No free ride for you, my dear friend. GS now controls the Universe and they will turn this market on the same hour of the same day you cover your shorts, and not one moment sooner. And think, who really designed your indicators, who really profits by them? Trust no one Allan.

Anonymous said...

that is right, Goldman Sachs is screwing us, when it looks like it is going to fall off the cliff, it turns around and move back higher ...

Anonymous said...

pretty frustrating indeed. One possibility is that this rebounce is wave 3-2 of wave 1 of P3. Rich

Anonymous said...

Its a bull market boys. Until you accept that fact, you are going to lose your ass in this market. Simple as that. Prechter was/is dead wrong again.

Mike said...

just stay intraday.

period. end of story.

-Mike

Anonymous said...

This is weird. I use TC2000 data and Metastock. I have SPY (not $spx) and QQQQ. I use ATR stop downloaded from the TASC article.

Both QQQQ and SPY are SHORT. I have the SPY currently at 105.51 with ATR stop at, get this, 108.31.

What gives?

Anonymous said...

I disagree about Goldman Sachs. They are only one of the parties manipulating this market. They don't control it. This market is generally in lock step with the Asian and European markets. They all move up together. GS would have to control the world to fix every market. And they're too busy screwing the taxpayers to even try.

This market is moving up because it can. And of course, because it wants to drive me stark raving mad.

Smiddy

Anonymous said...

My custom ATR system is still long from 3-17 on the daily SPY. It has not gone short once since that date. I am believer that we are on borrowed time and will be heading lower soon. I will load up on puts once the system flips.

L

t said...

I like the automated systems youre using.

If one were to 'guess', how many days do you think market will continue to go up before it corrects,and at what resistance point will it end its subwave and reverse,...
If this is a wave 2 (abc)correction of the 2 week (sept17-oct2) down wave , then I'm looking to see the 'b' part bring it back down a bit,maybe later this week,maybe starting tomorrow at end of day.

I wouldnt want to be trading these days ,without a reliable signal system.
But as soon as we see the next series of down days,followed by a few up days, that would tell me we have the a-b-c in place ,and heading to the target for reversal time.
How about something like, 4 days up,3 days down,4 days up -- takes us to the october 16 area.
or 5 days up,4 days down,5 days up = october 19 area.
This is my Target Time Zone for the big entry Down.

Anonymous said...

I have something to confess. I'm the one who has been manipulating this market. You see, I've been buying consistently for the last 6 months on every dip. I apologize for that.

Don't worry though, soon I'll be out of money and the market will crash.


-Vince in Norfolk

Anonymous said...

....LOL ...good one Vince

Anonymous said...

... but be careful about buying the next dips ....unless youre looking for ,you know, Dow 30,000

Anonymous said...

Allan,
It just came to my mind the 11th of October. I guess the market will consolidate then start from there to where it should be (MC)
Serge

Anonymous said...

Re:NNVC

Allan,

The stock has not traded as of 11:00am Wednesday , Oct.7th.

Is there a cease trading due to the new financing being announced?

Any updates on this stock would be appreciated.

Thanks,

Harvey B.

Allan said...

Harvey, NNVC is trading, just no volume yet today. I wish everyone who owns this stock would take it off of their screens and be patient. Unlike GFRE and some others, this is a get rich slowly situation.

The irony is that NNVC is a victim of their own success. They have presented the medical community with the most effective anti-viral in modern medical history. The reaction has been, "Yea, sure" cynicism, that turns into "intrigue" as data is presented, then morphs into "hey, let me test that stuff" as results are reported and now we are now in a , "those tests results were too damn good, let's throw some money into wider testing before getting carried away" mode.

What's next?

"Holy shit" recognition mode.

It's coming, be patient and reduce your anxiety by not watching every tick every day.

onegoal said...

Allan, I hope NNVC trades lower in the Oct-Nov market weakness that may develop so I can buy some more. Appreciate your insights. (I'm still holding CVM patiently) I hope the Hawks - Redwings game provides a great matchup - with the nod going to my Hawks. Will be watching it with my 12 year old hockey crazed son (who still is pissed about the Khabibulin trade to Edmonton) best to you.

Anonymous said...

re: NNVC

Good advice Allan. I do believe in this Company and your recommendation of it.

Best regards,

Harvey