Friday, October 30, 2009

The end of speculation?

From The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, October 30, 2009:

"....The recent strong downside breadth as well as the downside leadership from the higher-beta secondary indexes indicate that the most intense phase of the bear market to date is starting.....This time, all of the more speculative stock indexes, including the S&P Small Cap 600, the Russell 2000, the Value Line, and the NASDAQ, are charging ahead on the downside; this old fashioned stock behavior is probably an early sign that the optimistic bias of the past decade is finally about to yield."

My charts below support this premise:


RUT -
Weekly Sell Signal


RUT - Daily Sell Signal


RUT - Hourly Sell Signal


TZA - Daily Buy Signal

TZA is the bearish triple beta inverse ETF for the Russell 2000



A

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

Allan,
I can't believe no-one is raving about your amazing 20 point SPX call this am when it was still only 5 and ERY. I didn't listen of course given yesterdays 'recovery' hype and had just sold TZA on the open. But I'm up 100% since March; nothing specifically of your recommends which I tend to pick the worst of. But I'm so appreciative of the general guidance that you offer..thanks JBG

Allan said...

Hi JBG,

If its any solace, I'm cleaning up on that call....

Anonymous said...

Allan - what are your thoughts from a trend perspective, do you think we will see a kick back up on Monday or another down day? I'm trying to decide whether I want to get back into the shorts or have I lost my opportunity today.

Thanks,
Ron

Allan said...

Ron,

All the trend models are Short.

A

Anonymous said...

Allan,

So if I get in now, it would be a good GUESS that Monday will continue the shorts ETF's in their uptrend.

Thanks,
Liam

Allan said...

Liam,

My system is to trade the trend as defined by my charts and indicators. All I can say i s find something that works, then trade it.

A

Anonymous said...

Thank you for answering me,Sir.
I am a young trader and I would like to comment on this site,it helps me greatly.

I will find a system that works for me.

Those FBS...does it mean when they are high it means buy and when below, it means sell?

Thanks
Liam

Allan said...

Liam,

Learn a simple trend folwing technique to get started, then work your way into some more complicated stuff. Try the free 30 day trial at Market Club (hit there link on the ads on this page), it's a simple and effective way to recognize trends.

As for the FBS, it generates Sells when overbought and turning down, Buys when oversold and turning up, just follow some of my charts, it will become pretty obvious.

Learn, learn, learn and be persistent.

A

Anonymous said...

Say Allan, I know how much you appreciate beautiful women, and you may have read my post on I-hub a couple of days ago about being entered into the "Ante Up For Africa" celeb poker tournament. Well last night I was seated at a table along side Playboy Playmate Jessica Hall, WOW! what a Hottie! She was gracious enough to autograph my NanoViricides/HIVcide baseball cap that I had made up for the event. I also tried to get the hat into the TV camera lense at every opportunity, I hope they all don't end up on the cutroom floor. I was also successful in sharing some copies of the company's press release from last Monday where the good doctor's disscussed the 3 major cides in the pipeline, HIV, FLU, EKC along with the topical herpes. Actor/co-sponser, Academy Award nomine, Golden Globe winner Mr. Don Cheadle promised to read the release so I pointed out the section about HIVcide and that it could well be the holy-grail cure for HIV/AIDS. I know he is one with heart and star power to help the Doc's get the wordout in the media that nnvc has the goods! That lives need to be saved and saved now! With the full-blown aids epidemic in Africa and his humanitarian efforts in Darfur, Sudan perhaps he could get these discovery wheels up to speed! Thanks for posting my follow-up comment here. Digging Jessica and dig your blog too!

centillion

Anonymous said...

What a way to precede Halloween.

Bring up a chart of SPX MONTLY with a 20 ema and look where the price stopped 'end of month'.

A lot of regular folks are already suffering from mistakes made by phd level boneheads that should have known better.

At least some retail investors following ALLAN will profit from it. Too bad GS will too.....lol

Lucky

Allan said...

cantillion - hey, nice work with the NNVC hat and promotional material, very creative. I've been blessed with a couple of new sweeties in my life lately (not to worry, neither knows about this blog), certainly brightening up my nights in the desert and chasing away the demons of the past, not to mention providing empirical proof of the existence of God, after all these crazy-agnositc years.

Anonymous said...

...gotta believe in a higher power, 3 years now ... life is rozy

Anonymous said...

Actually Allan, I do know about this blog..AND WHO IS THE OTHER SWEETIE??? Donna in the Desert!!

Anonymous said...

So you got lucky ONE day- Friday. Too bad you've been short all year. Most of us not in your hedge fund are WASTED.

Keep up the good work Allan. The raging bull will pick up again next week.

BUY CALLS EVERYBODY.

Douglas

Anonymous said...

Allan:

HHow many women do you have? There seems to be a "cat fight" brewing on the blog!

What is your secret? Immense wealth? Unreal popularity? "The Professional Bachelor" Book?

Any ideas welcome. Most men should have at le4ast two women anyway.

Like J. Paul Getty said " What happens when your MISTRESS walks out on you? She creates a job opening!"

BTW any way to go "short" on women?

Anonymous said...

Al, seeing the wild action on NNVC since it was rec'd by the Agora guys, do you expect to see a pullback? If so, where would reasonable buy point(s) be? thanks for pointing this one out.

Anonymous said...

New Orleans said:

Allan,
Thanks for your Mid-October call on edz. Up 25.17%.

Made enough to fund last semester of college for my daughter. Using ATR system for conservative part of my portfolio and 401k investments.

Thanks again.

Allan said...

The big easy,

It is so gratifying to read a comment like yours, running with an idea that I posted and learning to fend for yourself from another idea that I posted (originally forwarded to me by another reader of my blog).

Thanks for letting me know, it keeps me posting.

A

Allan said...

Re: NNVC

I am a buy and holder of NNVC and suggest that anyone new to the stock buy some immediately without regard to price and then use any dips to add to your core position.

That said, dips are pretty well set out in my major trend following tools, Market Club Triangles, BWT and ATR, as well as the FBS.

None of these will matter once this company gets recognized as the Genentech of a new generation.

A

Anonymous said...

It's Monday 11:30 ET - Allan...are you OK? Miss you!!!

Allan said...

Not to worry, I'm in Monday morning recovery mode from weekend that didn't include a whole lot of sleep. Nothing new in my analysis, the trend remains down but subject to occasional pops to keep hope alive.

Anonymous said...

Must have been those two lady friends right?

Anonymous said...

Win money or lose it , I just want that pic of that damn hockey player to go away.


Douglas

Anonymous said...

I think you have to make a donation for that hockey dude to go ...